XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So we are at the very beginning of the integration. And for sure, we have a lot of synergies. And probably the easiest way to answer your question, we believe already in 2024, the deal will be accretive on earnings per share basis, okay? So on earnings, we will already be accretive in 2024. Yes. For that to happen, we need Modal and Modal’s clients because we have already migrated part of the clients to XP and Rico brand to deliver a bottom line above BRL150 million. So that’s the threshold to make it accretive in EPS base and we believe we can achieve that next year.

Mario Pierry: Okay. Let me ask a couple of follow-up questions then. Like what was the net impact of Modal this quarter on your bottom line? You talked about revenues and SG&A. What about the bottom line?

Bruno Santos: Was not relevant, something around BRL20 million.

Mario Pierry: BRL20 million. Okay. And then to go back on the question about the inflows, were the inflows relatively stable throughout the quarter? Or did you see like a drop in September or an acceleration in September? And also, how do you think about your market share, right, like because the inflows, the organic inflows decelerated quite a bit. We saw data from some of your other peers that show like higher inflows than what you had. So some people are starting to speculate if you have already reached a mature market share that it will be very difficult for you to continue to gain share? How do you feel about that?

Bruno Santos: Yes. Regarding your first part of the question, Mario, we prefer not to answer on a monthly basis. And the main reason is that we believe this misleading for investors. The business has already a lot of volatility on a quarterly basis, imagine on a monthly basis. Regarding your second part of the question, we still feel confident about the potential. We are planting the seeds. We can talk better about the affluent client where we have the highest share among the segments that we have in terms of client assets in XP platform. And the affluent client, it’s the scenario we described already with the industry performance, the fund’s performance and so on and being well-remunerated to stay in cash. So we believe it’s the cyclical part of our business, and we are still investing because it’s cyclical.

So it will — the tide will turn at some point, and we’re going to be ready and bigger. The ecosystem now is much bigger. It’s that slide that I talked about for the third quarter consecutively. That shows the potential of the core in retail that is still not an all-time high in terms of revenues. But in terms of the KPIs of investments, client assets, active clients and number of advisers, all of them are an all-time high. So we believe there is room we to go in terms of market share.

Mario Pierry: Okay. Thank you very much.

Antonio Guimaraes: Thanks, Mario. And now next one is Thiago Batista from UBS. Batistam can you hear us? So let’s move to next one and try to get back to Batista later. Next one then is Mr. Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs.

Tito Labarta: Hi. Good evening, Antonio. Good evening, Maffra, Bruno. Thanks for the call. Thanks for my questions. A little bit of a follow-up, but maybe basically a little devil’s advocate, Bruno and that slide. You mentioned on slide 12, right, where the core revenues are down despite all the investment that you’re doing. I understand the cyclical in the business. But you can look at this that you’ve made all these investments and your revenues are down, right? So aside from interest rates, do you think there’s anything else at play there, maybe competitive environment has gotten tougher, which is also why your revenue is down and as rates do come down, do you need rates to get below that 9% level to go back to those all-time highs. Just to understand like how sensitive it is to rates. Is there anything else going on in terms of competition or something else that could potentially limit the upside that you potentially see when things improve?

Bruno Santos: Sure, Tito. First, let me start saying that we invested a lot in the new verticals, okay? So — and the revenue is up. It’s like 182% up when we compare the last 12 months to 2021. The investment that we’ve made in advisers for the core business, I mean, we’ve been innovating in the IFA industry. What we are doing, we are invest in people that are outside the financial industry that want to make a career change, we use how the education part of our company as an enabler. We started as an education business, as you know. And we have been using all of that through Modal’s training to form new advisers because we strongly believe this is a business of relationship, a human contact. And if we have the right people with the soft skills, and we give the tools so they can understand about the financial market, and they can create this relationship and trust with the client.

That’s a good way to go. So it’s not a heavy investment there. And again, we believe whenever the macro helps, we believe there is a huge potential and high operating leverage in that part of the business, the core one. Your second part, I forgot if you can repeat?

Tito Labarta: I mean, I guess, it’s just a little bit related to the level of rates. I mean, do you need rates to go below the 9% level to see that inflection throughout 2021 rate and rates were coming from as well as 2%, right? So how low do you think rates need to go to get — to see the benefit?

Bruno Santos: It’s hard to say a number, honestly, because we don’t know if rates are above 10%, but riskier assets are performing really well and delivering returns higher than that. It’s a good environment. If we need single-digit interest rates for that to happen, then we will have to wait for single digits. So I don’t have like a precise answer to your question. But I think we are, it is a good trend, but at a slower pace than we would like. But again, we do not control that.