WK Kellogg Co (NYSE:KLG) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Dave McKinstray: Hey, Matt, morning. No, I’d say that everything that we’ve said to-date on our supply chain modernization program still holds. So we haven’t changed any of the direction there. I would say, and as I said in the prepared remarks, we’ll come back later this year with further detail and be precise more on timing and all of those elements. But so far, what we’ve said to-date still holds.

Matt Smith: Thank you, Dave. And as a follow-up to your commentary around the investments you’re making to stand up a standalone company, is there any phasing to the coming off of TSAs between you and Kellanova that we need to be aware of? Do you still plan to be on a significant amount of TSA support exiting ’24? Do you expect to lower your exposure there pretty meaningfully this year?

Dave McKinstray: Yes, and how I would characterize it as a phased exit. So, we’ll exit the elements of the TSA in 2024, and some will be totally off of in 2024 as we move into the back half of the year. Other ones will be in through 2025, so it’s not a clean hay here’s the end of it, but rather a phased exit really over the next, call it, 18-ish months from here.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Robert Moskow of TD Cowen. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Robert Moskow: Hi. Thank you. Good morning.

Gary Pilnick: Hey, Robert. Good morning.

Robert Moskow: Hey, with all this discussion about revenue growth management and mixed improvement through a premiumization, it’s not just you, it’s also your competitors too, using that strategy. Is it likely that this will lead to kind of like a low single-digit volume decline for the category for the next few years? And maybe that’s okay because it’s mixed positive and its margin positive. Is that a scenario that you have thought through as you go through your supply chain revitalization planning? And is it fair to say that that’s contemplated as a possibility in your margin targets as you go forward?

Gary Pilnick: It’s a fair question, Robert. The way we look at it is, when we talk about price realization, you identified the different ways we’re going about it. And there are just certain outcomes that come from those activities. There are outcomes that come from a bunch of other activities we have as well. But yes, we have taken into consideration what that impact would be, how that impacts our supply chain, how that impacts our business. It’s all baked into our overall plan. So yeah, we certainly did consider that as we plan the business going forward.

Robert Moskow: Okay. All right. Thank you. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Robert Dickerson of Jefferies. Rob, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Robert Dickerson: Great. Thanks so much. Morning, everyone. You know, look, just given there have been a lot of questions around one singular category. I’m fairly comprehensive. I just wanted to touch quickly on some of the below the line items and on guidance like I realized kind of what the net debt level is a year end ’23, but clearly right there were incremental capital raise needs for the supply chain improvements that you’ve been speaking about the Investor Day. So maybe if you could just provide any color at what potentially those needs could be at least in ’24. And then also, I guess, kind of using some rational interest rate assumption, what could that be incrementally relative to the guide on interest?

Dave McKinstray: Hey, Rob, we’re not going to give it this time any further direction on the supply chain modernization beyond what we’ve given. As I said in the prepared remarks, we’ll come back later this year with what that will mean for 2024 and what that will mean beyond and in the absolutes and everything else. So we’ll come back with that later this year.

Robert Dickerson: All right. And then I guess just D&A [ph]. D&A was lower than even speaking about or speaking to maybe just kind of why the change is that just kind of a push forward in some of the timing.

Dave McKinstray: Yes, exactly. Rob, I think your characteristic there is correct. So if you think about Q4 of 2023, we had about $17 million of D&A we had in our press release this morning, $75 million to $85 million for next year for the full year. And really the driver of that is back to that $80 million. And I mentioned the majority of that are — the over half of it will be on the CapEx on the $80 million. As we stand up that will move into the depreciation line. And that’s what leads to that. I’d call it a slight increase year-on-year from current run rates.

Operator: Thank you. At this time, we currently have no further questions. So I’ll come back to CEO, Gary Pilnick for any further remarks.

Gary Pilnick: We’d like to thank all of you for joining our call today. This being the very first call of our very first quarter that we had as an independent company. I hope you can hear the confidence we have in our business. We look forward to sharing our Q1 results with you in May. Thank you very much for joining us.

Operator: Thank you for joining today’s call. You may now disconnect your lines.

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