WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ:WSC) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Tim Boswell: No, it hasn’t. I believe one of the first questions was breaking down the price performance in our core container category, excluding cold storage, and those rates were up approximately 20% year-over-year in Q4. So that’s a good indication of the momentum that we are carrying into 2024. And then if I look at the spot rate spreads in our modular products, we still got a favorable spread of around 29%, so that hasn’t contracted meaningfully. And our ground-level office spread is approximately 22%, so that continues to be quite indicative of a powerful tailwind across the modular products. So feeling good about the rate environment going into 2024, and we haven’t changed our approach.

Andrew Wittmann: Great. Thanks guys.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

Scott Schneeberger : Thanks very much. Good afternoon. Tim, could you address what the contribution is from climate control and clearspan in your 2024 guidance, kind of what that contribution is, and then what everything else is at the high end or the low end or midpoint or however you want to address it, kind of a bridge of what price, what volume is in the 2024 guidance? Thanks.

Tim Boswell: Okay. I don’t know that I’m going to bridge every metric here, but I will say, if we look at all of our acquisitions in 2023, we invested about $262 million. There’s about — that was for about $70 million of acquired EBITDA, which implies about an 8 times blended purchase multiple. And about $35 million of that acquired EBITDA has yet to flow through our numbers. So in terms of the incremental EBITDA lift that we expect to get in 2024, $35 million of that will be coming from just the rollover of acquisitions that we’ve already executed. And then the remaining, call it, $65 million of EBITDA growth to get to the midpoint of our guidance, would be coming from other organic levers in the business. I mentioned 50 basis points of margin expansion at the midpoint.

I mentioned volumes likely inflecting somewhere in the second half of the year, so likely flat to down on average if you look at the year as a whole. And then you can infer the pricing and value-added products are driving the rest of the growth to get us to the EBITDA midpoint for 2024.

Scott Schneeberger : Thanks. I appreciate that. And then for a follow-up, just there’ve been plenty of questions on storage and retail, but I’m going to add on to this. How are you thinking about the retail and the bounce-back? We’ve heard from Walmart remodeling nearly 1,000 stores globally, 650 in the U.S. It seems like there’s going to be a lot of activity there. There’s some very easy comps. We have your guidance, but I’m just curious how you’re thinking about the retail component here as we move through 2024. Thank you.

Tim Boswell: We haven’t baked in a significant rebound from that vertical in our guidance. If we look at kind of first half delivery expectations for storage, for example, very modest despite the comps that we’re looking back to in 2023. We have assumed that delivery volumes then begin to grow a bit more in the second half of the year, but it would not assume a dramatic increase in remodels or seasonal activity. So we’ve taken a cautious view as it relates to those volumes. We’re aware of the one data point that you referenced. We’re also aware of some others that may not begin that store remodel activity until 2025. So we’re trying to be balanced about that outlook, and the outlook isn’t predicated on a strong recovery there.

Scott Schneeberger: Great. Thanks.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Faiza Alwy with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Faiza Alwy: Yes, thank you. Good evening. So Tim, I wanted to follow up on your macro comments around being incrementally cautious. So on the one hand, I’m hearing you talk about some optimism on the modular side, and then we were just talking about retail and how — it doesn’t seem like things got incrementally worse because we knew sort of the issues around remodeling getting pushed out. So I’m just curious like where — like what’s changed from a macro perspective in the last few months that’s leading you to be incrementally cautious?

Tim Boswell: You’re right, Faiza. There are mixed indicators out there, right? The newest data point that we have is the fourth quarter non-residential construction square footage, which was down 29% year-over-year. So that’s a big drop. It was down 18% for the year, with Q4 being the softest quarter. Now those overall square footage levels are still kind of in line or above 2018 and 2019 levels. So this is still a healthy operating environment, it’s just that we’re coming off of a 2022 that was pretty extraordinary and set some all-time highs. And we saw that impact in our Q4 storage volumes, excluding retail. I agree with your point that the retail assumptions are not materially worse than we would have talked about in Q3, they’re just rolling over a bit later just because there was some contribution from that demand in Q1 2023.

So from a year-over-year perspective, that headwind will kind of ease as we get into Q2, specific to the storage segment. And then contrast that with what we’re seeing with modular demand to start the year. Again, we’re seeing good conversion of the quoting activity that we were seeing in Q4, and we’re seeing strong year-over-year growth in net orders and activations. Now if we sustain that at mid-single-digit growth levels through the course of this year, we’re going to inflect units on rent, and we’re going to have a pretty compelling trajectory going into 2025. But it’s just the end of February, and that normal seasonal build in our business starts to become a lot clearer as we get into the second half of March and April.