We recently published a list of the 10 Best Stocks to Buy and Hold For 3 Years. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) stands against the other best stocks to buy and hold for 3 years.
What to Expect From the Stock Market in 2025?
On December 12, Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors managing partner and head of research, joined CNBC’s ‘Closing Bell’ to discuss his playbook for 2025. Following two years of significant gains, his playbook suggests an optimistic yet cautious outlook for the stock market next year. Lee anticipates that the S&P 500 will rise to approximately 7,000 by mid-2025, before retreating to around 6,600 by the end of the year. This reflects an overall expected increase of about 8% for the year, which is consistent with historical averages for stock market returns. In terms of Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates Lee projects EPS for the S&P 500 at $260 in 2025 while estimating $300 for 2026. This is slightly below the consensus estimates from Wall Street, which average around $268 for 2025.
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Explaining his investment thesis, Lee pointed towards several themes that could drive the market in 2025. He predicts a “tale of two halves,” where the first half of the year will see stronger market performance due to factors like Federal Reserve policies and business-friendly initiatives under President Trump. Conversely, he expects a pullback in the second half, reflecting historical trends after strong consecutive years. He sees potential in small-cap stocks, which have underperformed relative to large-cap stocks historically. Lee also talked about the mega caps that are leading. He mentioned that investors reach for these companies when there is even slight risk in the market. Secondly, mega-cap stocks are highly sensitive to falling interest rates. With the December cut in effect, the market is bullish for tech, thereby further solidifying the investment case for megacaps.
Despite his generally positive outlook, Lee acknowledges several risks that could impact market performance. For instance, he thinks the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could potentially lead to reduced government spending and slower economic growth if it is too effective in cutting costs. Moreover, the implementation of tariffs could adversely affect economic conditions and corporate profits. Lee pointed out that historical patterns suggest that after two years of substantial gains, markets often experience declines in the latter half of the third year.
A development team working together to create the next version of Windows.
Our Methodology
To compile the list of 10 best stocks to buy and hold for 3 years, we applied a consensus approach. We sifted through recent articles to get an aggregated list of the best stocks to buy and hold for 3 years. Next, we ranked these stocks based on the number of hedge fund holders as of Q3 2024, sourced from Insider Monkey’s database.
Why do we care about what hedge funds do? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)
Number of Hedge Funds: 279
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is a leading technology company that ranks 2nd on our list of best stocks to buy and hold for 3 years. It is known for a wide range of devices, software, and services. Some of the core offerings by the company include productivity software including Microsoft Office and Azure, the Windows operating system, and Gaming devices such as Xbox consoles.
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is leading the AI transformation through its intelligent cloud, Azure, and its advanced artificial intelligence (AI) tool, Copilot. During the fiscal first quarter results of 2025, the company generated $65.6 billion in revenue, up 16% year-over-year. The growth was on the back of Microsoft Cloud, which surpassed $38.9 billion in revenue, up 22%. The segment was driven by Azure which led the server products and cloud services revenue to increase 23%. Management noted that Azure Arc now has over 39,000 customers across every industry, up more than 80% year-over-year.
In addition to its cloud business, the AI business is taking significant leaps forward. Management during the call highlighted that its AI business is on track to surpass an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion next quarter, making it the fastest business to reach the milestone in Microsoft Corporation’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) history. On November 17, the company announced that it is collaborating with Accenture and Avanade to help businesses transform their operations using advanced technologies like generative AI and Microsoft’s Copilot tools. The partnership is expected to further enhance its product offerings, increasing customer engagement and driving financial growth for the company.
RiverPark Large Growth Fund stated the following regarding Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
“Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT): MSFT was a top detractor in the third quarter following a fiscal fourth quarter earnings report that featured inline operating metrics but mixed guidance. Positively, the company reported strong revenue (+15%) and earnings growth (+10%), powered by Azure (+30%), and operating margins of 43%. Guidance however calls for lower than expected fiscal first quarter Azure revenue as infrastructure constraints limit growth, and higher capital expenditures throughout the company’s fiscal 2025 to alleviate these constraints. The company expects growth to reaccelerate in the back half of fiscal 2025 as more AI capacity comes online.
Cloud-based services have become the company’s largest revenue and earnings producer. The company’s Azure platform alone has the potential to grow to more than $200 billion in annual revenue over the next decade. Overall, we believe that the company will continue to deliver double-digit revenue and EPS growth and generate an enormous amount of free cash flow to return to shareholders and use for acquisitions.”
Overall, MSFT ranks 2nd on our list of best stocks to buy and hold for 3 years. While we acknowledge the potential of MSFT to grow, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MSFT but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.