We recently compiled a list of the 191.50% in 3 Years: Peconic Hedge Fund’s Top 10 Stock Picks. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER) stands against the other stocks.
Established in 1997, Peconic Partners is a hedge fund manager based in New York, under the leadership of William Harnisch. The firm manages both its capital and that of its clients, using long/short equity hedge fund strategies. It also follows a thematic investment approach with a structured and consistent methodology, aiming to achieve positive returns over the long term regardless of market conditions.
Peconic Partners’s stock selection approach is driven by its deep experience. The Peconic Partners investment strategy has a history spanning over 40 years, originating with its predecessor firm. Peconic Partners’ long-term track record, history of capital appreciation, and past ability to generate alpha are testaments to the vision, insight, and patience derived from their experience.
William Harnisch is the Chief Investment Strategist at Peconic Partners. He managed Peconic Partners from the late 1970s until 1997 when the long-only business was sold to a privately-held financial services firm aiming to expand its asset management business. However, William Harnisch and his partners retained exclusive ownership of the hedge business. In December 2004, he and the current Peconic team formed Peconic Partners, continuing the successful and disciplined hedge fund strategy practiced since the late 1970s.
Mr. Harnisch’s career began in 1968 at Chase Manhattan Bank. He later joined Forstmann-Leff Associates (FLA), managing assets exceeding $5 billion and entering the hedge fund business in 1986. In 1997, he sold FLA’s long-only business and in 2004, he founded Peconic Partners to concentrate on hedged products. William Harnisch holds a B.B.A. from Baruch College and is a Chartered Financial Analyst. He is active in philanthropy through the William F. Harnisch Foundation and is a board member of the Baruch College Fund. His market insights have been featured in the Wall Street Journal and Barron’s.
In 2023, Peconic Partners LLC regained the top spot on HedgeFollow’s Top 20 Best Performing Hedge Funds list. Despite challenges like rising inflation and market volatility, Peconic Partners delivered a remarkable 191.50% performance over three years. This achievement is significant as many money managers struggled during a surprising market rally. While only 38% of large-cap mutual funds beat the market in 2023, and long-short hedge funds saw minimal gains, Peconic Partners excelled. For the fourth year in a row, the New York-based fund achieved an annual gain of 38%, three times higher than the S&P 500’s performance.
In late December of 2023, Mr. Harnisch increased bets against the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and took short positions in expensive industrial stocks and consumer-product makers that have raised prices aggressively. This caused the fund’s net leverage to decrease from 50% to 33% in a few weeks, and it has continued to drop in early 2024.
Our Methodology
The companies mentioned in this article come from Peconic Hedge Fund’s top 10 stock picks at the end of the first quarter of 2024. To give readers a thorough understanding of these companies, we’ve included analyst ratings and other relevant details. We also mention the number of hedge fund investors in each company. Why focus on the stocks that hedge funds invest in? Our research shows that mimicking the top picks of the best hedge funds can lead to market-beating returns. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy, which selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks each quarter, has returned 275% since May 2014, outperforming its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here)
A close up view of a hand holding a smartphone, using a ride sharing app.
Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 130
Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER) made it to Peconic Hedge Fund’s top 10 stock picks. Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER) is a major force in ride-sharing and has a strong presence worldwide. In addition to ride-sharing, Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER) makes money from other services like Uber Eats (food delivery) and freight. Both Uber Eats and Uber Freight are growing quickly due to rising demand for delivery and logistics.
According to regulatory filings, at the end of the first quarter of 2024, Peconic Partners held 10,330 shares of Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER), valued at $795,307 and accounting for 0.03% of their portfolio. Analyst Johannes Kirchmayr expects a return of over 10% over a 5-year holding period for investors who keep holding Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER) at the current market price, assuming the EV/Sales ratio remains constant. Due to the current downward trend of Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER), the analyst recommends waiting for a trend reversal before buying. Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER)’s valuation is slightly higher than industry peers, with a median EV/Sales TTM multiple of 3.2x compared to Uber’s 3.6x.
RiverPark Large Growth Fund stated the following regarding Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER): UBER was a top contributor in the quarter following better than expected 4Q23 earnings and 1Q24 guidance. Gross bookings of $37.6 billion were up 22% year over year. Mobility gross bookings of $19.3 billion grew 29% over last year driven by a combination of product innovation and driver availability. Delivery gross bookings of $17 billion were up 19% from last year and continued to be strong throughout the quarter. 4Q Adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion, up $618 million year over year, was better than management’s guidance of $1.2 billion, and the company generated $768 million of free cash flow, up from a cash loss of $303 million last year. Management guided to continuing growth in 1Q Gross Bookings (20% growth) and Adjusted EBITDA (of $1.3 billion). The company hosted a well-received analyst day in February during which it guided to three year compounded annual growth rates for gross bookings of mid-to-high single digits and EBITDA of 30-40%, both above investor expectations. The company also guided to free cash flow conversion of 90% of EBITDA.
UBER remains the undisputed global leader in ride sharing, with a greater than 50% share in every major region in which it operates. The company is also a leader in food delivery, where it is number one or two in the more than 25 countries in which it operates. Moreover, after a history of losses, the company is now profitable, delivering expanding margins and substantial free cash flow. We view UBER as more than a ride sharing and food delivery service; we also see it as a global mobility platform with 142 million users (by comparison, Amazon Prime has 200 million members) and the ability to penetrate new markets of on-demand services, such as package and grocery delivery, travel, and hourly worker staffing. Given its $5.4 billion of unrestricted cash and $4.8 billion of investments, the company today has an enterprise value of $165 billion, indicating that UBER trades at 21x our estimates of next year’s free cash flow.”
Overall UBER ranks 9th on our list of Peconic Partners’ top 10 stock picks. You can visit 191.50% in 3 Years: Peconic Hedge Fund’s Top 10 Stock Picks to see the other stocks that are on hedge funds’ radar. While we recognize UBER’s potential as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than UBER but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
