We recently compiled a list of the 10 Worst Performing Healthcare Stocks in 2024. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) stands against the other healthcare stocks.
The Evolving Landscape of Global Healthcare Spending and Innovation
The healthcare industry remains a vital and resilient sector which is driven by advancements in technology, increasing global demand, and an aging population. ReportLinker projects that the healthcare services industry will grow from $7.5 trillion in 2022 to $7.975 trillion in 2023. It is anticipated to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3%, or $9.8 trillion, through 2027. The global healthcare market is divided into several segments, including hospitals, digital health, and healthcare services. The hospital market alone is predicted to grow by 4.18% a year between 2024 and 2029, reaching a market value of $5.19 trillion.
In 2021, worldwide healthcare spending reached a record $9.8 trillion, or 10.3% of global GDP, according to a report released by the World Health Organization in December 2023. Spending was not uniformly dispersed, either, with low-income nations becoming more dependent on foreign help as government health spending declined. High-income nations spent about $4,000 per capita on health care, but 11% of the world’s population resided in nations that spent less than $50 per person. Even while public health spending increased during COVID-19, this trend is unlikely to continue because nations are dealing with issues like high inflation, weak growth, and mounting debt.
According to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), national healthcare spending is projected to reach an estimated $4.8 trillion in 2023 and grow at an annual rate of 5.6% between 2027 and 2032.
A patient-centered, technology-driven revolution is taking place in the healthcare industry. Thanks to the epidemic, telehealth has become widely accepted; in 2023, the global market was estimated to be worth $60.15 billion and is predicted to continue growing. By 2028, the genomics-driven precision medicine market, which provides individualized therapies based on genetic composition, is expected to reach $50.2 billion. With $31.5 billion in equity funding from 2019 to 2022 and the potential for $360 billion in annual US savings over the next five years, AI is also revolutionizing healthcare. The global market for remote patient monitoring (RPM), which was valued at $71.9 billion in 2023, is expected to continue expanding thanks to wearable technology.
Dr Bruce Aylward, WHO Assistant Director-General, Universal Health Coverage, Life Course, said:
“Sustained public financing on health is urgently needed to progress towards universal health coverage. It is especially critical at this time when the world is confronted by the climate crisis, conflicts, and other complex emergencies. People’s health and well-being need to be protected by resilient health systems that can also withstand these shocks.”
The Looming Collapse of U.S. Healthcare
The most concerning aspect of the healthcare industry is the looming collapse of the U.S. healthcare system, particularly in terms of workforce shortages and financial instability. The healthcare industry is facing a severe staffing crisis. By 2030, it is projected that 124,000 more physicians will be needed, and 800,000 registered nurses (RNs) are anticipated to leave the profession by 2027. The current turnover rate for staff RNs is a staggering 24%. This shortage has led to the closure of vital patient services, including Pediatrics, Psychiatry, Obstetrics, and ICUs in some healthcare systems.
Despite these challenges, the U.S. continues to spend nearly twice as much on healthcare as the OECD average, with worse outcomes on average. This disparity highlights the inefficiency and unsustainability of the current system. Additionally, 58% of hospital bad debt comes from insured patients, further straining the revenue cycle and limiting funds available for clinical services. The combination of these factors paints a grim picture of the U.S. healthcare system’s future. Without significant intervention and reform, the industry risks a systemic collapse that could have far-reaching consequences for public health and the economy.
Our Methodology
In our methodology, we used a stock screener to pick stocks with a market capitalization above $10 billion and assessed their year-to-date (YTD) returns. We subsequently identified those with underwhelming YTD performance as of November 11 and ranked them accordingly.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A scientist surrounded by vials and beakers in a modern laboratory, proudly displaying a vaccine.
Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA)
Total YTD Return: -44.88%
Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) is a biotechnology company specializing in messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. It develops synthetic mRNA that instructs cells to produce proteins to prevent or treat diseases. The company’s primary focus has been on vaccines, notably its COVID-19 vaccine, which is its first commercially approved product.
Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) has faced significant challenges recently, leading to a decline in its stock price, which makes Moderna, inc. stand among the worst performing healthcare stocks. The company announced plans to cut its Research and Development (R&D) budget by approximately 20% over the next three years due to low sales projections and disappointing vaccine sales. This includes discontinuing five R&D programs to save $1.1 billion annually by 2027. Additionally, Moderna provided cautious sales guidance for 2025 and aims to achieve break-even by 2028.
Short-term headwinds include declining COVID-19 vaccination rates and a slow ramp-up for its RSV vaccine. Of the ten new products expected by 2027, Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) plans to file for approval for three this year: a new COVID/flu vaccine, a next-gen COVID vaccine, and an RSV vaccine for high-risk adults aged 18 to 59.
Despite these challenges, Wall Street remains optimistic about Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA)’s future, particularly regarding the rollout of its RSV vaccine, mRESVIA, in the US, and positive feedback from the European Medicines Agency. The company’s pipeline is also showing progress, with encouraging Phase III results for its flu and COVID-19 combo vaccine, supported by recent partnerships with BARDA and Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma.
Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) anticipates a 40%–50% sales increase in Q3 2024 and aims to end the year with approximately $9 billion in cash, expecting to return to growth in 2025. The company is optimistic about sales contributions from the EU market in 2025 and 2026. Moderna continues to adapt to the evolving vaccine market through new product rollouts and partnerships.
Overall MRNA ranks 1st on our list of the worst performing healthcare stocks in 2024. While we acknowledge the potential of MRNA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MRNA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.