We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Gold Mining Companies to Invest in. In this article, we are going to take a look at where B2Gold Corp. (NYSE:BTG) stands against the other gold mining stocks.
Gold has reached an all-time high, capping a 20-month rally with a 50% increase. Although the selling pressure from the retail investor would have an adverse affect on gold prices, however, this surge is driven by central banks buying record volumes of bullion mainly due to the desire to reduce dependence on US dollar, conflicts in the Middle East, and strong demand from Chinese consumers amid disappointing local equities, property, and currency markets. Furthermore, Chinese political leaders noticed that financial assets of the Russian government including bonds and reserves got confiscated by Western governments after Russia invaded Ukraine. Christopher Mancini, who co-manages Gabelli Gold Fund says “The Chinese central bank saw that happened and said ‘We don’t want that to happen to us.’ It would make sense for them to want to significantly retire their [U.S.] dollar reserves. With gold, they don’t have to worry about being repaid. We know they have been buying a consistent amount of gold every day.”
Bernard Dahdah from Natixis suggests central banks might continue buying gold due to tensions between the US and China, potentially making prices above $2,300 the new norm. The move to gold also reflects a broader trend of nations reducing their reliance on the U.S. dollar, prompted by the dollar’s use as a geopolitical tool against Russia, leading to gold prices reaching an all-time high of $2,480 per ounce on July 17, 2024. In U.S. the Fed is expected to cut the Fed funds rate, but inflation may remain steady, leading to lower real interest rates. This scenario benefits gold as the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold decreases compared to cash and bonds. Additionally, a decline in U.S. real interest rates may weaken the U.S. dollar, making gold, which is globally priced in dollars, more attractive.
Owning gold directly provides a “store of value” but offers limited returns rather than generate substantial gains like equities. However, other than its appeal in its ability to preserve value, many investors view it as a hedge against economic troubles rather than a high-return investment. So an investor otherwise seeking gold as a soaring investment would be disappointed in the longer term as it doesn’t appreciate by much as gold has risen less than 300% in a century with annualized real returns of 1.34%, adjusted for inflation. Therefore investors looking for a more aggressive approach, aim for gold mining stocks that provide leverage to the gold price that yields returns surpassing those of the underlying commodity.
Despite this leverage, the underlying stock valuations will consider future cash flows and market volatility of the gold as well as the consensus price estimates by market participants. Nonetheless, gold miner stocks should be more volatile than gold itself, offering greater returns if the investor’s thesis on rising gold prices is correct.
Regardless of gold prices rising over the last 15 years, gold mining ETFs and major miners (Agnico, Newmont, Barrick) have underperformed compared to physical gold. Although some companies covered in this article have succeeded, the gold mining sector requires careful scrutiny beyond just reserves and production. Like any other investment that is carefully analyzed mining companies need to be analysed based on management, capital allocation, and geopolitical risk. It is also because of these factors that gold mining companies are unable to reach their potential as viable investments.
Methodology
To curate our list of 10 Best Gold Mining Companies to Invest in, we gathered a list of all companies using the holdings of gold miners ETFs. We then further narrowed down on the basis of their upside potential. With this let’s now jump to our list of the 10 Best Gold Mining Companies to Invest in.
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Aerial view of a gold mine in Mali, showing the scale of the mining operations.
B2Gold Corp. (NYSE:BTG)
Current Price: $3.00
Upside Potential: 34%
B2Gold Corp. (NYSE:BTG) is a Canadian company specializing in the exploration and development of gold resources. With operations spanning multiple countries, including Colombia, Mali, Namibia, the Philippines, Uzbekistan, Finland, and Canada, the company engages in exploration, development, and production activities. In Q1 2024, the company achieved an adjusted EPS of $0.06, surpassing analysts’ expectations, with gold production of 225,716 ounces aligning with guidance. The company’s strong liquidity position was evidenced by $629 million in working capital and $568 million in cash and cash equivalents, boosted by $507 million in operating cash flows. A dividend of $0.04 was declared.
In June 2024, the company formed Versamet Royalties with Sandbox Royalties, expected to generate $30 million in revenue by 2026, up from the current $10 million. Gold production is forecasted to increase to between 860,000 and 940,000 ounces in 2024, compared to 590,243 ounces in 2023. Analysts project EPS to rise to $0.26 per share in 2024 from $0.01 in 2023, and revenue to grow to $2.52 billion in 2025 from $1.96 billion in 2024.
The stock rose 20% in the last month, with 11 analysts rating it as a buy and setting a target price of $4.37, indicating a 40.5% potential upside. However, the stock saw a 15.7% decline over the past year, partly due to a Q4 2023 net loss with an EPS of negative $0.09 per share, attributed to decreased gold production and sales volumes from 352,769 ounces and 339,355 ounces in Q4 2022 to 256,921 ounces and 270,611 ounces in Q4 2023.
Overall BTG ranks 1st on our list of the best gold mining stocks to buy. You can visit 10 Best Gold Mining Companies to Invest in to see the other gold mining stocks that are on hedge funds’ radar. While we acknowledge the potential of BTG as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than BTG but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.