We recently compiled a list of the 11 Best Freight Stocks To Buy Now. In this article, we are going to take a look at where XPO, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) stands against the other freight stocks.
The Red Sea Crisis & Shipping Challenges
The Red Sea accounts for 30% of global container trade via the Suez Canal. According to a report by JP Morgan, the Houthi attacks have disrupted the entire supply chain, forcing companies to reroute around Southern Africa, adding 4,000 miles to every journey. Rerouting will increase transit times by almost 30% and global container shipping capacity will decline by almost 9%. The report suggests that spot rates have soared amid the crisis. Spot rates in January 2024 from China to the US West and East Coast rose by 140% to 120% compared to November 2023. Jamie Dimon’s investment bank expects trade disruptions to add 0.7 percentage points to global core goods inflation, and 0.3 percentage points to overall core inflation.
On May 6, Reuters reported that Maersk, the shipping giant, predicted that the crisis would cut the industry’s capacity by almost 20% between Asia and Europe in the second quarter of 2024. Large shipping companies have diverted routes around Africa, leading to a rise in freight costs and shipping time. According to the Danish shipping group, shipping costs between Asia and Europe are now 40% higher for every journey. While experts expect the crisis to slow down before the end of 2024, the uncertainty and risk attached to the future of shipping are costing major shipping companies. To counter bottleneck situations and fuel faster sailing, companies are increasing their shipping capacity. The company has so far released over 125,000 additional containers. You can also read our piece on the most advanced countries in logistics.
Technology Disrupting the Freight Industry
While the Red Sea crisis is a major headwind for the freight industry, technological advancements will be monumental for the sector’s growth. Companies like GXO are using technology to disrupt the industry. You can also take a look at the richest billionaires in the logistics industry.
On May 14, the company deployed robots for a global sporting goods retailer in France. The robotics solution was designed to reduce the order processing time and improve response time to seasonal volume changes. The solution is deployed across 12,000 square meters at the site. The solution includes 500 autonomous mobile robots that manage 70,000 bins on 5.5-meter tall storage racks. In 2023, the company increased its automated and tech systems by 50% and is actively working to integrate machine learning and artificial intelligence. Here are some comments from the company’s Q1 2024 earnings call:
“Automation is a key tenant of our value proposition. And we’re the first mover in trialing the integration of cutting-edge automation like humanoid and AI inside the four walls of the warehouse. We’ve recently introduced some exciting innovations in AI. First, the warehouse optimization pilot we mentioned last quarter was a success driving a productivity increase of approximately 15%, and we’re rolling out the app across our sites as we speak. Second, we’ve recently piloted a proprietary workforce management tool, which we developed in-house. Our tool makes more than 15 million decisions per minute to streamline inventory replenishment and adding about 7% of capacity at no additional cost. We will be deploying this solution broadly across our operations starting this year.”
Now that we have studied the freight industry, let’s discuss some of the best freight stocks to buy now. You can also read our piece on the best transportation stocks to buy.
Our Methodology
To come up with the 11 best freight stocks to buy now, we went over our own rankings, similar rankings on the internet, and three transportation ETFs. We created an initial pool of 30 freight stocks and selected the top 11 with the largest number of hedge fund holders as of Q1 2024. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here).
A convoy of freight trucks on a highway, reflecting industrial freight transportation.
XPO, Inc. (NYSE:XPO)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 47
XPO, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) is one of the best freight stocks to buy now. The company is a leading asset-based less-than-truckload freight transportation company based in North America. The company has more than 13,000 drivers and over 43,000 tractors and trailers to meet the shipping needs of 99% of US ZIP codes. In 2023, the company added more than more than 1,400 tractors and produced over 6,400 trailers.
At the close of the first quarter of 2024, 47 investors held stakes in XPO, Inc. (NYSE:XPO), with consolidated positions worth $3.33 billion. Of those, Farhad Nanji and Micheal Demichele’s MFN Partners was the largest investor, with a position worth $1.55 billion.
To improve safety, the company plans to include a freight airbag system expected to be completed by mid-2024. Sites with airbags have witnessed a decline in damage frequency by 20%. The company also rolled out new tractors and trailers capable of improving the company’s fleet maintenance. XPO, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) also delivered a growth in yield, excluding fuel, by almost 10% year-over-year, helping the company improve its adjusted operating ratio by 400 basis points. In 2024, the company expects to increase the number of miles brought in-house, to improve efficiency, flexibility, and quality control.
By the end of 2024, XPO, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) will have a few hundred 100 sleeper trucks fully functional for use. Its volume growth is expected to surpass the company’s headspace count providing a large margin opportunity. On May 3, the company reported market-beating earnings for the fiscal first quarter of 2024. The company logged revenue worth $2.02 billion, up by almost 6% year-over-year, ahead of market consensus by $13.52 million. The company also reported earnings per share of $0.81, beating estimates by $0.13. The company grew its earnings by over 25% over the past 12 months and analysts project earnings to expand by almost 30% over the next five years.
Here are some comments from ClearBridge Investments in its Q3 2023 Investor Letter:
“Our holdings in the industrials sector also contributed during the quarter. XPO, Inc. (NYSE:XPO), which provides freight transportation services internationally, rallied on the news that industry competitor Yellow had filed for bankruptcy, resulting in market share gains for XPO.”
Overall XPO ranks 6th on our list of the best freight stocks to buy. You can visit 11 Best Freight Stocks To Buy Now to see the other freight stocks that are on hedge funds’ radar. While we acknowledge the potential of XPO as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than XPO but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.