We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Financial Stocks To Buy According to Hedge Funds. In this article, we are going to take a look at where S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) stands against the other financial stocks.
The financial services industry in the US is poised for a dynamic and challenging year ahead, shaped by a confluence of economic, technological, and regulatory factors. The global economy is anticipated to grow modestly, with advanced economies like the US expecting around 1.4% growth. This is influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, climate-related disruptions, and persistently high inflation rates. These macroeconomic conditions are expected to significantly impact the operations and profitability of financial institutions. High interest rates have been a double-edged sword for the industry. While they have led to substantial increases in net interest income, particularly for larger banks, they have also driven up funding costs, especially for smaller and regional banks, squeezing their margins. According to Deloitte, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will be crucial, with expectations that rates will remain elevated initially but may decrease later in the year. This will necessitate careful management of the balance between deposit rates and lending rates to sustain profitability. Economic uncertainty and the potential for slower growth have prompted banks to increase their loan loss provisions as a precautionary measure to cover potential defaults. This trend is expected to persist, reflecting a cautious approach to managing credit risk amidst economic volatility and increased regulatory scrutiny.
Concurrently, the financial services sector is experiencing significant technological shifts. Advances in AI and generative AI are set to transform various aspects of the industry, from retail investing and fraud detection to insurance offerings. However, these advancements also introduce new risks, such as heightened fraud potential and the need for robust cybersecurity measures. On the regulatory front, changes are becoming more stringent, particularly around climate-related disclosures and sustainability. Financial institutions are required to adapt to these new regulations aimed at enhancing transparency and effectively managing climate risks. These regulatory changes, coupled with technological advancements, are forcing financial institutions to innovate and evolve their business models and strategies. Overall, banks and financial institutions must remain agile and proactive, navigating these multifaceted challenges to maintain profitability and drive growth in 2024. This will involve balancing the benefits and risks of high interest rates, managing loan loss provisions prudently, leveraging technological advancements, and complying with evolving regulatory requirements.
In a recent development, major U.S. banks withstood a hypothetical 40% decline in commercial real estate values in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual health test, which alleviated concerns about the banking sector amid rising interest rates. With increasing risks in the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, investors were keenly observing the Fed’s stress tests to gauge the exposure of American lenders at a time when pandemic-era work patterns have left office towers largely vacant, pushing vacancy rates to a historic high of 20%. Chris Marinac, head of research at Janney Montgomery Scott, commented, “In many ways, there should be a sense of relief that banks can endure a severe crisis. However, this doesn’t mean the Fed believes commercial real estate is in the clear. We are still in the early stages of this credit cycle”. The Fed’s stress tests evaluate banks’ balance sheets against a hypothetical severe economic downturn, including a 36% drop in U.S. home prices, a 55% plunge in equity prices, and an unemployment rate of 10%, reported Reuters.
Results of the stress test released recently showed that banks could continue lending to households and businesses in the event of a severe global recession and indicated the capital needed to be deemed healthy and to determine how much they can return to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The 31 large banks tested demonstrated they had enough capital to absorb nearly $685 billion in losses. This test comes over a year after the collapse of mid-sized lenders like Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic, which sparked criticism that the Fed had underestimated banks’ vulnerabilities to rising interest rates, previously assuming rates would fall during a severe recession. Commercial office space is a significant concern, with $929 billion of the $4.7 trillion in outstanding commercial mortgages maturing in 2024, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. This approaching maturity wall occurs amid declining property values and reduced rental income. Analysts foresee a challenging period for CRE, with banks still having “considerable concentration risks,” according to Moody’s Ratings. Of the banks tested, Goldman Sachs had the highest projected loan loss for commercial real estate at 15.9%, followed by RBC USA (15.8%), Capital One (14.6%), and Northern Trust (13%). One critique from analysts is that the Fed’s stress test did not include regional banks, which hold most of the CRE loans and are less regulated than their larger counterparts.
Over the coming months, senior leaders in the financial services industry anticipate a challenging landscape marked by high interest rates, increased regulatory scrutiny, and persistent inflation concerns. While these trends are familiar to industry veterans, many younger employees have not encountered such conditions before. According to Deloitte, leaders will need to guide their teams through uncertainty, focusing on navigating near-term challenges and identifying potential opportunities. Looking ahead, rapid technological advancements—including generative AI, cloud migration, heightened fraud and cyber risks, and the convergence of industries through embedded finance—will demand unprecedented agility from financial services leaders. Adapting to these changes will require creating new strategic pathways to align with evolving market dynamics. Throughout history, the financial services sector has often driven progress by helping organizations and individuals navigate economic and societal shifts. By the end of this decade, 2024 may be recognized as a pivotal year when the future began to materialize in tangible ways. Investing now in innovative products and services that foster positive outcomes could position firms for sustained competitive advantage in the years ahead.
Our Methodology
We leveraged Insider Monkey’s comprehensive database of 920 prominent hedge funds to identify the top 10 financial stocks with the highest level of hedge fund investment as of Q1 2024. These stocks are listed in order of increasing hedge fund ownership, providing insight into the most popular financial stocks among elite investors.
A group of analysts studying data on a large monitor.
S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 97
S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) ranks second on our list of 10 Best Financial Stocks To Buy According to Hedge Funds. During Q1, 2024 the count of hedge funds holding positions in S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) rose to 97 from 82 in the prior quarter, as reported by Insider Monkey’s database encompassing 920 hedge funds. These holdings collectively amount to around $9.57 billion. Chris Hohn’s TCI Fund Management emerged as the leading shareholder among these hedge funds during this timeframe. On April 18, Stifel analyst Shlomo Rosenbaum reiterated a “Buy” rating for S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) but lowered the price target from $460 to $442.
The London Stock Exchange Group and S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) are reportedly among the contenders interested in acquiring data provider Preqin, reported Reuters. The owners of Preqin, which specializes in private equity industry data, are exploring options that include a potential full sale of the business. Goldman Sachs is advising on the sale process, which is currently in its second round. Analysts involved estimate that the sale could fetch over $2 billion, although specifics remain confidential.
Baron Durable Advantage Fund stated the following regarding S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“Shares of rating agency and data provider S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) declined 3.1% during the quarter after the company provided financial guidance that missed Street expectations. While S&P guided to solid organic revenue growth of 7% to 9% and EPS growth of 9% to 11%, projected margin expansion fell short of investor estimates, which underestimated the correlation between improving top-line trends and variable employee comp (which is rising as a result). We are not concerned with this short-term dynamic that is the outcome of improving business fundamentals. S&P reported solid results for the most recent quarter, with 11% organic revenue growth, 23% EPS growth, and broad-based strength across the company’s business segments. Ratings growth was especially robust as debt issuance rebounded amid improving market conditions. Positive momentum has continued into 2024, with 66% issuance growth in January and February. We continue to own the stock due to the company’s durable growth characteristics and significant competitive advantages.”
Overall SPGI ranks 2nd on our list of the best financial stocks to buy. You can visit 10 Best Financial Stocks To Buy According to Hedge Funds to see the other financial stocks that are on hedge funds’ radar. While we acknowledge the potential of SPGI as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than SPGI but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
