At first, the stock price showed early signals of downward momentum, but the trend soon changed, and since then the price actually increased 2.84%. Why is this happening, and what kind of future awaits for Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) shareholders?
Yet another miss and guide-down?
The small loss Amazon delivered isn’t new. According to Seeking Alpha contributor Paolo Santos, who is bearish on the stock, there have been around 11 miss and guide-downs in a row. However, as the recent price increase shows, the Street doesn’t find this worrying.
One of the reasons why the Street may not be punishing the stock is because everybody seems to understand that Amazon could be in the profit zone easily if it wanted to. Instead, it is choosing to invest almost all of its cash flow in new segments and in brand building. A clear example is giving free Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) Web Services accounts to developers so they can get accustomed to the cloud first. Eventually, some of these investments are supposed to pay off, and in the meanwhile, some losses are expected to occur. But the fact that the stock price keeps increasing shows investors are willing to be patient. They are not looking for short-term annual profits and dividends, but they are sure that in the long-run these and many other rewards will materialize, if Amazon keeps investing smartly.
The good part of the earnings call
Even though revenue did not manage to beat the street consensus, Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) keeps an excellent growth rate. Active users grew 19% to 215 million, third-party units sales rose 29% and total units sold increased 29%, making total revenue grow 25% (22%, after accounting for currencies fluctuations), which is still above the average growth rate for most e-commerce sites.
Amazon isn’t just about retail
Compared with other retail stocks, it has one of the highest enterprise value to revenue metrics, three times the value for Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT). Yet Amazon’s annual sales volume is far away from reaching Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT)’s $469 billion. Why is the investor willing to pay more for Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)?
We can’t deny the enormous importance that Amazon.com has for the firm. The e-commerce site dominates the online retail landscape, with $51.7 billion sales in 2012, and is the main revenue driver. However, unlike your typical retail stock, Amazon’s investments in Kindle products, Prime memberships and cloud farms show us that the firm’s revenue components could be more diversified in the next three years. Some of these segments may experience amazing growth rates, and this is why the investor is willing to pay a premium for Amazon.
Global expansion
That doesn’t mean that growth for the current cash cow segment, e-commerce, is over. Amazon.com has an enormous global opportunity that could multiply its current sales volume in the medium run. According to Morningstar, Amazon now sells directly only in nine countries outside of the U.S. and Canada. These 9 markets represented 43% of revenue in 2012.
If Amazon keeps expanding its e-commerce business globally, I believe it is perfectly possible to reach hundreds of billions in annual sales in the next decade. The current growth rate suggest it could take Amazon a decade to reach the volume of Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT), but acceleration due to emerging markets could make this shorter.
