We recently published a list of the 10 Best Stocks to Buy and Hold For 3 Years. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) stands against the other best stocks to buy and hold for 3 years.
What to Expect From the Stock Market in 2025?
On December 12, Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors managing partner and head of research, joined CNBC’s ‘Closing Bell’ to discuss his playbook for 2025. Following two years of significant gains, his playbook suggests an optimistic yet cautious outlook for the stock market next year. Lee anticipates that the S&P 500 will rise to approximately 7,000 by mid-2025, before retreating to around 6,600 by the end of the year. This reflects an overall expected increase of about 8% for the year, which is consistent with historical averages for stock market returns. In terms of Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates Lee projects EPS for the S&P 500 at $260 in 2025 while estimating $300 for 2026. This is slightly below the consensus estimates from Wall Street, which average around $268 for 2025.
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Explaining his investment thesis, Lee pointed towards several themes that could drive the market in 2025. He predicts a “tale of two halves,” where the first half of the year will see stronger market performance due to factors like Federal Reserve policies and business-friendly initiatives under President Trump. Conversely, he expects a pullback in the second half, reflecting historical trends after strong consecutive years. He sees potential in small-cap stocks, which have underperformed relative to large-cap stocks historically. Lee also talked about the mega caps that are leading. He mentioned that investors reach for these companies when there is even slight risk in the market. Secondly, mega-cap stocks are highly sensitive to falling interest rates. With the December cut in effect, the market is bullish for tech, thereby further solidifying the investment case for megacaps.
Despite his generally positive outlook, Lee acknowledges several risks that could impact market performance. For instance, he thinks the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could potentially lead to reduced government spending and slower economic growth if it is too effective in cutting costs. Moreover, the implementation of tariffs could adversely affect economic conditions and corporate profits. Lee pointed out that historical patterns suggest that after two years of substantial gains, markets often experience declines in the latter half of the third year.
A user’s hands typing a search query into a Google Search box, emphasizing the company’s search capabilities.
Our Methodology
To compile the list of 10 best stocks to buy and hold for 3 years, we applied a consensus approach. We sifted through recent articles to get an aggregated list of the best stocks to buy and hold for 3 years. Next, we ranked these stocks based on the number of hedge fund holders as of Q3 2024, sourced from Insider Monkey’s database.
Why do we care about what hedge funds do? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL)
Number of Hedge Funds: 202
Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) ranks 3rd on our list of best stocks to buy and hold for 3 years. It is a multinational technology conglomerate and the parent company of Google, YouTube, and several other subsidiaries, including Waymo, which focuses on self-driving technology. The company has also developed a family of large language models (LLMs) known as Gemini. These models are integral to the Gemini chatbot and enhance various AI features within Google Search.
While Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) already holds a 90% market share globally with regards to the search engine market, to further enhance the internet search experience management has launched AI Overviews. This feature provides AI-generated responses at the top of search results, integrating text, images, and links to streamline user access to information. It is currently rolling out in 100 countries and aims to serve over 1 billion users monthly.
During the fiscal third quarter of 2024, the company generated $88.3 billion in revenue up 15% year-over-year. Google Advertisement accounted for more than 74% of this revenue standing at $65.9 billion. With the introduction of AI Overviews and other features, management is looking to enhance monetization strategies in response to investor expectations for returns on substantial AI investments. CEO Sundar Pichai highlighted they have reduced the cost per query for its AI Overviews by over 90% within 18 months while doubling the size of its custom Gemini model.
Qualivian Investment Partners stated the following regarding Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
“Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL): Q2 2024 revenues and EPS beat expectations, with total revenues growing 14%, Search ad revenues growing 14%, YouTube ads growing 13%, and Google Cloud revenues growing 29%. Revenue growth in the quarter constituted a continued sequential improvement from earlier quarters in the year, suggesting a continued rebound in Alphabet’s core business except for YouTube ad revenues, which missed expectations and showed deceleration in the growth rate as compared to Q1 when it grew 21%. Operating margins improved by 310 bps vs. the same quarter last year.
Management continued to highlight developments with their generative AI program, which is seen as a foundational platform with opportunities across their businesses but particularly in search and cloud. However, this comes with material capex investment well ahead of the expected economic benefits from Gen AI, and the level of spending is leading investors to worry about the ROI on that spend for Alphabet, as well as the other hyperscalers (Microsoft and Amazon). We continue to have confidence in Alphabet’s ability to generate strong revenue, earnings, and cash flow growth well above the S&P 500’s in the years to come and view it as a core holding for the long term.”
Overall, GOOGL ranks 3rd on our list of best stocks to buy and hold for 3 years. While we acknowledge the potential of GOOGL to grow, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than GOOGL but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.