We continue our state-by-state analysis below. You can find our reasoning and predictions for the other states here.
22. Massachusetts
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 22.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 27.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 35.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 40.3 points
Trump: 118 – Biden:125
23. Michigan**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 4.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 0.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 7.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 2.0 points (This is another battleground state. Biden has the edge now, but Trump might be able to close the gap over the next 9 days. He already closed the gap by 0.6 points over the last couple of week)
Trump: 118 – Biden:141
24. Minnesota**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.1 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 1.5 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 7.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 1.5 points (This is another battleground state. Biden has the edge now, but Trump might be able to close the gap over the next 9 days)
Trump: 118 – Biden:151
25. Mississippi
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 15 points
Actual result: Trump won by 17.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 13.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 16.6 points
Trump: 124 – Biden:151
26. Missouri
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 11.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 18.6 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 9.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 16.6 points
Trump: 134 – Biden:151
27. Montana
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 15.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 20.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 8.9 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 13.4 points
Trump: 137 – Biden:151
28. Nebraska
Nebraska also splits the electoral votes by districts, but this won’t be a close race. Here are the stats for the entire state:
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 19.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 25 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 17.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 22.3 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:151
29. Nevada
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 0.2 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 2.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 7.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 9.9 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:157
30. New Hampshire
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 2.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 0.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 10.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 5.3 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:161
31. New Jersey
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 11.4 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 14.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 19.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 22.3 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:175
32. New Mexico
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 8.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 13.3 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 15.9 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:180
33. New York
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 19.2 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 22.5 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 29.5 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 32.8 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:209
34. North Carolina**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 0.0 points (not a typo)
Actual result: Trump won by 3.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 1.9 points (Last week fivethirtyeight was predicting a 2.5 point Biden victory, so polls are tightening)
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.8 points (This is a battleground state, but we think Trump is likely to win NC).
Trump: 157 – Biden:209
35. North Dakota
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 23.5 points
Actual result: Trump won by 35.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 22.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 34.8 points
Trump: 160 – Biden:209
36. Ohio**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 1.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 8.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 1 point (Two weeks ago Fivethirtyeight was predicting a Biden victory)
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 7.2 points (Pollsters think Ohio is a battleground state. We disagree.)
Trump: 178 – Biden:209
37. Oklahoma
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 27.0 points
Actual result: Trump won by 36.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 24.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 34 points
Trump: 185 – Biden:209
38. Oregon
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 8.8 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 11 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 18.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 20.3 points
Trump: 185 – Biden:216
39. Pennsylvania**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 3.6 points
Actual result: Trump won by 0.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 5.5 points (A week ago the margin was 6.3 points, so polls are tightening)
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins/loses by 0.0 points (I can’t make a prediction regarding PA. Biden’s numbers improved significantly in early October. I think Trump will improve enough to make PA a true battleground state. I will make a final call at the end of the article).
Trump: 185 – Biden:216
40. Rhode Island
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 13.4 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 15.5 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 28.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 30.2 points
Trump: 185 – Biden:220
41. South Carolina
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 6.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 14.3 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 8.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 15.5 points
Trump: 194 – Biden:220
42. South Dakota
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 17.0 points
Actual result: Trump won by 29.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 15.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 28.4 points
Trump: 197 – Biden:220
43. Tennessee
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 13.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 26.0 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 15.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 28.7 points
Trump: 208 – Biden:220
44. Texas
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 9.6 points
Actual result: Trump won by 9.0 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 1.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.2 points (Texas won’t be a battleground state in this election, but it may be in the next one)
Trump: 246 – Biden:220
45. Utah
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 10.8 points
Actual result: Trump won by 18.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 14.5 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 21.8 points
Trump: 252 – Biden:220
46. Vermont
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 26.4 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 26.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 35 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 35 points
Trump: 252 – Biden:223
47. Virginia
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 4.9 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 5.3 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 12.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 12.6 points
Trump: 252 – Biden:236
48. Washington
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.3 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 15.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 23.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 27.1 points
Trump: 252 – Biden:248
49. West Virginia
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 27.2 points
Actual result: Trump won by 42.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 27.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 42.7 points
Trump: 257 – Biden:248
50. Wisconsin**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.0 points
Actual result: Trump won by 0.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 0.4 points (This is a battleground state. Right now Trump is slightly behind but he has 9 days to gain a small edge over Biden)
Trump: 257 – Biden:258
51. Wyoming
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 36.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 46.3 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 38.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 48 points
Trump: 260 – Biden:258
Conclusion
I haven’t made a call about Pennsylvania yet. So far the battleground states are Arizona (Trump:11 votes), Florida (Trump:29 votes), Michigan (Biden:16 votes), Minnesota (Biden:10 votes), North Carolina (Trump:15 votes), Ohio (Trump:18 votes), and Wisconsin (Biden:10 votes). I don’t think Ohio is really a battleground state. If Trump wins North Carolina (likely), Florida (coin toss), and Pennsylvania (coin toss) he will win the election. There were two polls conducted in PA over the last few days and these polls gave Biden an average lead of 5.5 points. Four years ago polls were off by 4.3 points, so if we adjust recent polls’ results by 4.3 points in favor of Trump, it looks like Biden has a small edge in Pennsylvania.
A second way for Trump to win the election is by winning Wisconsin or Minnesota if he loses Pennsylvania. Fivethirtyeight is estimating a 6.2 points Biden victory. Four years ago polls were off by 5.8 points. So, if we adjust current estimates by 5.8 points in favor of Trump, this will put Trump within 0.4 points of Wisconsin’s 10 votes. It is still possible that Trump can win Wisconsin and lose Arizona, so, for now we give Wisconsin to Biden and Arizona to Trump.
On the other hand if Trump loses Florida I don’t think he can win in other states to make up the difference. At this moment, I think Donald Trump has 40% chance of winning the election. That’s 28 points more than what fivethirtyeight is estimating. Please keep in mind that the overwhelming consensus right now is that Biden will sweep this election and there is a decent chance of a “blue wave”. I think Trump will deliver another stunning upset this election. Even if he doesn’t win it, he will come very close.
There is a huge factor that I haven’t talked about and didn’t quantify so far: mail in ballots and participation rates. I didn’t do it because I have no idea how it is going to affect the election results. Mail in ballots may boost participation rates by left leaning voters and tilt the election in Biden’s favor. On the other hand, I believe a non trivial percentage of voters who use mail in ballots will not fill out these ballots correctly and their votes will be wasted. Think about all those ballots lacking signatures (or mismatching the signatures that are on file) and lacking ID cards for first-time voters. I believe the number of wasted votes will be at least 1 million (this is a very conservative estimate). The amount of early voting also indicates a large increase in participation rates. We just don’t have enough data to estimate the effects of these two factors on election results.
Overall, I don’t believe Joe Biden has an 87% chance of winning the election right now. The outcome of this election is still extremely uncertain.
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