50. Wisconsin**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.0 points
Actual result: Trump won by 0.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 0.4 points (This is a battleground state. Right now Trump is slightly behind but he has 9 days to gain a small edge over Biden)
Trump: 257 – Biden:258
51. Wyoming
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 36.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 46.3 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 38.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 48 points
Trump: 260 – Biden:258
Conclusion
I haven’t made a call about Pennsylvania yet. So far the battleground states are Arizona (Trump:11 votes), Florida (Trump:29 votes), Michigan (Biden:16 votes), Minnesota (Biden:10 votes), North Carolina (Trump:15 votes), Ohio (Trump:18 votes), and Wisconsin (Biden:10 votes). I don’t think Ohio is really a battleground state. If Trump wins North Carolina (likely), Florida (coin toss), and Pennsylvania (coin toss) he will win the election. There were two polls conducted in PA over the last few days and these polls gave Biden an average lead of 5.5 points. Four years ago polls were off by 4.3 points, so if we adjust recent polls’ results by 4.3 points in favor of Trump, it looks like Biden has a small edge in Pennsylvania.
A second way for Trump to win the election is by winning Wisconsin or Minnesota if he loses Pennsylvania. Fivethirtyeight is estimating a 6.2 points Biden victory. Four years ago polls were off by 5.8 points. So, if we adjust current estimates by 5.8 points in favor of Trump, this will put Trump within 0.4 points of Wisconsin’s 10 votes. It is still possible that Trump can win Wisconsin and lose Arizona, so, for now we give Wisconsin to Biden and Arizona to Trump.
On the other hand if Trump loses Florida I don’t think he can win in other states to make up the difference. At this moment, I think Donald Trump has 40% chance of winning the election. That’s 28 points more than what fivethirtyeight is estimating. Please keep in mind that the overwhelming consensus right now is that Biden will sweep this election and there is a decent chance of a “blue wave”. I think Trump will deliver another stunning upset this election. Even if he doesn’t win it, he will come very close.
There is a huge factor that I haven’t talked about and didn’t quantify so far: mail in ballots and participation rates. I didn’t do it because I have no idea how it is going to affect the election results. Mail in ballots may boost participation rates by left leaning voters and tilt the election in Biden’s favor. On the other hand, I believe a non trivial percentage of voters who use mail in ballots will not fill out these ballots correctly and their votes will be wasted. Think about all those ballots lacking signatures (or mismatching the signatures that are on file) and lacking ID cards for first-time voters. I believe the number of wasted votes will be at least 1 million (this is a very conservative estimate). The amount of early voting also indicates a large increase in participation rates. We just don’t have enough data to estimate the effects of these two factors on election results.
Overall, I don’t believe Joe Biden has an 87% chance of winning the election right now. The outcome of this election is still extremely uncertain.
See also 10 biggest companies that support Trump and 16 biggest issues facing America in 2020.
