50. Wisconsin**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.0 points
Actual result: Trump won by 0.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 1 points (This is a battleground state. Right now Trump is slightly behind but he has 2.5 weeks to gain a small edge over Biden)
Trump: 257 – Biden:258
51. Wyoming
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 36.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 46.3 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 38.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 47.8 points
Trump: 260 – Biden:258
Conclusion
I haven’t made a call about Pennsylvania yet. So far the battleground states are Arizona (Trump:11 votes), Florida (Trump:29 votes), Michigan (Biden:16 votes), Minnesota (Biden:10 votes), North Carolina (Trump:15 votes), Ohio (Trump:18 votes), and Wisconsin (Biden:10 votes). I don’t think Ohio is really a battleground state. If Trump wins North Carolina (likely), Florida (coin toss), and Pennsylvania (coin toss) he will win the election. There were two polls conducted in PA over the last few days and these polls gave Biden an average lead of 4 points. Four years ago polls were off by 4.3 points, so if we adjust recent polls’ results by 4.3 points in favor of Trump, it looks like Trump has a small edge in Pennsylvania.
Alternatively, Donald Trump can still win the election if he can deliver an upset victory in Michigan, and win Florida. A third way for Trump to win the election is by winning Wisconsin/Minnesota, and Florida. There were two polls conducted in Wisconsin over the last 7 days and they give Biden an average lead of 3.5 points. Four years ago polls were off by 5.8 points. So, if we adjust recent polls’ results by 5.8 points in favor of Trump, this will give Trump Wisconsin’s 10 votes by a margin of 2.3 points. It is still possible that Trump can win Wisconsin and lose Arizona, so, for now we give Wisconsin to Biden and Arizona to Trump.
On the other hand if Trump loses Florida I don’t think he can win in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin or Minnesota (very unlikely). At this moment, I think Donald Trump has 40% chance of winning the election. That’s not nothing. Please keep in mind that the overwhelming consensus right now is that Biden will sweep this election and there is a decent chance of a “blue wave”. I think Trump will deliver another stunning upset this election. Even if he doesn’t win it, he will come very close.
There is a huge factor that I haven’t talked about and didn’t quantify so far: mail in ballots. I didn’t do it because I have no idea how it is going to affect the election results. It may boost participation by left leaning voters and tilt the election in Biden’s favor. On the other hand, I believe a non trivial percentage of voters who use mail in ballots will not fill out these ballots correctly and their votes will be wasted. Think about all those ballots lacking signatures (or mismatching the signatures that are on file) and lacking ID cards for first-time voters. I believe the number of wasted votes will be at least 1 million (this is a very conservative estimate).
I don’t believe Joe Biden has an 87% chance of winning the election right now. I am certain that the outcome of this election is still extremely uncertain.
See also 10 biggest companies that support Trump and 11 easiest congressional seats to win in America.
