Who Will Win The Presidency? Here is Our Verdict

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50. Wisconsin**

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.0 points

Actual result: Trump won by 0.8 points

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.4 points

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 0.6 points (This is a battleground state. Right now Trump is slightly behind but he has 3 weeks to gain a small edge over Biden)

Trump: 255 – Biden:253

51. Wyoming

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 36.9 points

Actual result: Trump won by 46.3 points

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 39.6 points

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 49 points

Trump: 258 – Biden:253

Conclusion

I haven’t made a call about Pennsylvania yet. So far the battleground states are Florida (Trump:29 votes), Michigan (Biden:16 votes), Minnesota (Biden:10 votes), North Carolina (Trump:15 votes), Ohio (Trump:18 votes), and Wisconsin (Biden:10 votes). I don’t think Ohio is really a battleground state. If Trump wins North Carolina (very likely), Florida (coin toss), and Pennsylvania (coin toss) he will win the election. Alternatively, Donald Trump can still win the election if he can deliver an upset victory in Michigan, and win Florida. A third way for Trump to win the election is by winning Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Florida. So, assuming that Trump wins Florida and North Carolina, his probability of winning the election is about 65%.

On the other hand if Trump loses Florida I don’t think he can win in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin or Minnesota (very unlikely). At this moment, I think Donald Trump has 33% chance of winning the election. That’s not nothing.

There is a huge factor that I haven’t talked about and didn’t quantify so far: mail in ballots. I didn’t do it because I have no idea how it is going to affect the election results. It may boost participation by democrat leaning voters and tilt the election in Biden’s favor. On the other hand, I believe a non trivial percentage of voters who use mail in ballots will not fill out these ballots correctly and their votes will be wasted. Think about all those ballots lacking signatures (or mismatching the signatures that are on file) and lacking ID cards for first-time voters. I believe the number of wasted votes will be at least 1 million (this is a very conservative estimate).

I don’t believe Joe Biden has an 85% chance of winning the election right now. I am certain that the outcome of this election is still extremely uncertain.

See also 10 biggest companies that support Trump and 11 easiest congressional seats to win in America.

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