Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE:WY) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Mark Weintraub: And lastly, just real quick. So, we have seen more of a bounce in lumber than OSB. Is that just because it overshot more and you’re getting some more of the supply response in BC, or — any other thoughts as to why that’s happened to date and any perspective you have kind of going forward?

Devin Stockfish: Yes. I mean, I think that’s exactly right, Mark. I think it’s largely a function of the supply response. OSB is a little different. Unlike Lumber where you can take a few shifts here, a few ships there, OSB is pretty lumpy in terms of capacity coming on and off, and you just haven’t really seen that. So, I think that’s really the primary difference.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Mike Roxland with Truist Securities.

Mike Roxland: Thank you, Devin, Davie and Andy for taking my questions. First one, just wanted to get a sense from you on — your thoughts around China and potential for exports, particularly given how China has eliminated its COVID restriction. So, is there the potential — are you seeing the potential for even greater demand to the country now that they’ve — reducing those restrictions around COVID?

Devin Stockfish: Yes. Well, I mean, the short answer is yes. I think as they come out of the COVID restrictions, that will create more opportunity. But just for a little more context, China has been an interesting market of late. There have been a lot of puts and takes. Demand clearly has been down primarily as a result of the COVID lockdowns, but also just a broader shakeup in the real estate industry in China. So, I’d say on balance, log demand, lumber demand in China has been down of late. But there have also been a lot of supply impacts as well. So with the Russian log ban, the Australian log ban, I think you’re seeing some of the European log flow from the salvage activity start to wane a little bit. So, there have been, I think, impacts on both sides of the ledger.

For us specifically, we’ve got long-term customers. The demand for us was actually higher than the volume that we sent there last year. And as we’ve said, that was really just a function of capturing the better margin opportunities domestically. As those two have come a little bit more into balance, freight costs have come down, we are anticipating ramping up our China volume into Q1. And that’s — I think that would be the case regardless of what’s going on in China, just because our customers need that wood. But I do think coming out of the Lunar New Year in China, you’re going to see log and lumber demand pick up. They’ve been in a relative soft spot for a while. So, I think there’s going to be plenty of opportunity for us to ramp up our export volumes to China.

Mike Roxland: Got you. I appreciate the color. And then just on the repair and remodel markets, obviously, you reiterated this quarter that it’s held up pretty well thus far in the professional segment. If you look back historically, there is a correlation between single-family housing starts — or housing starts in general and repair and remodel — typically repair and remodel follows housing starts by a couple of quarters. Wondering if you have any insights into the cadence of repair and remodel during 4Q? And whether that — with activity is really steady or maybe it sort of started to decline as the quarter progressed? And then just quickly, with all the repair and remodel that has occurred over the last several years of people working from home, what gives you the confidence that R&R should continue to persist going forward at an elevated rate?