Western Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:WES) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Western Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:WES) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript May 9, 2024

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Operator: This time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Western Midstream Partners First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the conference over to Daniel Jenkins, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Daniel Jenkins: Thank you. I’m glad you could join us today for Western Midstream’s First Quarter 2024 Conference Call. I’d like to remind you that today’s call, the accompanying slide deck and last night’s earnings release contain important disclosures regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP reconciliations. Please reference Western Midstream’s most recent Form 10-Q and other public filings for a description of risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from what we discuss today. Relevant reference materials are posted on our website. With me today are Michael Ure, our Chief Executive Officer; and Kristen Shults, our Chief Financial Officer. I’ll now turn the call over to Michael.

Michael Ure: Thank you, Daniel, and good afternoon, everyone. I’m excited to announce that the first quarter exceeded our expectations as strong producer activity levels higher rates associated with the cost of service rate redeterminations that became effective on January 1, and our continued focus on maintaining high levels of system operability all contributed to better-than-expected throughput increases and higher overall profitability. Also, based on the latest producer forecasts, we expect these throughput trends to continue throughout the year. Thus, we now expect higher average year-over-year throughput growth rates for all products, and we expect to end up near the high end of our previously disclosed adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow guidance ranges.

Kristen will provide more detail on our updated guidance expectations shortly. Before we get into the specifics of the first quarter, I am pleased to announce that Mentone Train III completed the commissioning phase and became operational in early April. This is our first major construction project since becoming a stand-alone enterprise, and I would like to thank and congratulate all the teams that worked so diligently to bring Mentone III to completion. This achievement increases our natural gas processing capacity at our West Texas complex in the Delaware Basin by approximately 18%, which will benefit WES financially due to our fixed fee processing agreements and reduced reliance on offloads going forward. Again, many thanks to all of our employees and contractors have played a critical role in bringing Mentone III online safely and in line with our initial cost estimates.

Focusing on our first quarter performance, continued strong producer activity levels resulted in increased throughput across all our core operated assets. Specifically, in the Delaware Basin, we benefited from additional wells coming online sequentially, which resulted in another quarter of record-breaking natural gas and produced water throughput from the basin. In the DJ Basin, both natural gas and crude oil and NGL throughput increased quarter-over-quarter, a trend we expect to result in annual average year-over-year growth. And in the Powder River Basin, throughput also increased primarily due to a full quarter’s contribution for Meritage and volume growth from those assets, a trend we expect will gradually increase throughout 2024, especially for natural gas volumes.

This increased throughput and higher cost of service rates were the main drivers behind the $26 million increase in our adjusted gross margin compared to the fourth quarter. Additionally, certain operating costs were lower than anticipated, resulting in higher-than-expected adjusted EBITDA. Finally, I am pleased to announce that we officially closed all of our non-core asset sales that we highlighted on last quarter’s earnings call. At quarter end, WES’ net leverage ratio on a trailing 12-month basis was approximately 3.3x, which incorporates 5.5 months of contribution for Meritage as well as the proceeds received from the non-core asset sales that closed throughout the first quarter, and we now expect to exit 2024 at or below our 3x leverage threshold.

With that, I will turn the call over to Kristen to discuss our operational and financial performance.

Kristen Shults: Thank you, Michael, and good afternoon, everyone. Our first quarter natural gas throughput increased by 2% on a sequential quarter basis. This was primarily driven by increased throughput in the Delaware and DJ Basin and a full quarter of Meritage throughput, which closed in mid-October of last year. We also saw increased throughput from our natural gas equity investments during the quarter. Going forward, we expect the sale of the Marcellus gathering system early in April to impact our second quarter natural gas volumes by approximately 140 million cubic feet per day. Looking at crude oil and NGLs as a reminder, the divestitures of both the Whitethorn pipeline and the Mont Belvieu joint venture closed simultaneously with the signing of their respective sales agreement in mid-February.

Additionally, both the Saddlehorn and Panola Pipeline divestitures closed in late March. These non-core asset sales were the primary driver behind the 20% sequential quarter throughput reduction on a reported basis. On an operated basis, our crude oil and NGL throughput increased by 2% on a sequential quarter basis. Throughput increased sequentially from both the DJ and Powder River Basins. However, volumes were unchanged in the Delaware Basin due to producer level disruptions caused by winter storm Jerry in mid-January. Produced water throughput increased by 7% on a sequential quarter basis due to increased completion activity. Our first quarter per Mcf adjusted gross margin for natural gas assets increased by $0.03 compared to the prior quarter.

This increase was primarily driven by increased throughput at the West Texas complex, which has a higher than MCS margin as compared to our other natural gas assets. In addition to higher rates associated with the cost of service rate redetermination that became effective January 1 and increased efficiency revenue from certain contracts. This increase was partially offset by the favorable revenue recognition cumulative adjustment associated with our South Texas assets that was recorded in the fourth quarter and did not reoccur in the first quarter. We expect our second quarter per Mcf adjusted gross margin to be in line with the first quarter. Our first quarter per barrel adjusted gross margin for crude oil and NGL assets increased by $0.49 compared to the prior quarter due to the sale of our interest in Whitethorn, Saddlehorn, and Panola Pipeline and the Mont Belvieu joint venture, all of which have lower than average per unit margins as compared to our other NGL assets.

We expect our second quarter per barrel adjusted gross margin to be in line with the first quarter. Our first quarter per barrel adjusted gross margin for our produced water assets increased by $0.09 compared to the prior quarter primarily due to increased throughput and higher rates associated with the cost of service rate redeterminations that became effective on January 1. We expect our second quarter per barrel adjusted gross margin to be in line with the first quarter. During the first quarter, we generated record net income attributable to limited partners of $560 million, which included a $240 million gain pertaining to the sale of non-core assets and record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $608 million. Relative to the fourth quarter of 2023, our adjusted gross margin increased by $26 million.

This increase was mostly driven by increased throughput and higher rates associated with the cost of service rate redeterminations that became effective on January 1 in the Delaware Basin. These increases were partially offset by the favorable revenue recognition cumulative adjustments associated with our South Texas and our DJ Basin oil system that occurred in the fourth quarter and did not occur in the first quarter of this year. Additionally, our adjusted EBITDA benefited from lower operation and maintenance expense and slightly lower G&A and property and other taxes on a sequential quarter basis. Going forward, we expect our operation and maintenance expense to trend modestly higher in both the second and third quarters, primarily driven by increased throughput, higher utility costs and our expanded asset base.

As a reminder, we expect seasonality associated with our utility expense in the summer months due to the higher estimated electricity pricing and greater energy usage in conjunction with increased throughput. We also expect our property and other taxes to normalize in the second quarter and revert back to levels similar to the fourth quarter of last year. Turning to cash flow. Our first quarter cash flow from operating activities totaled $400 million, generating free cash flow of $225 million. Free cash flow after our fourth quarter 2023 distribution payment in February was $1.5 million. From a capital markets perspective, in the first quarter, we opportunistically repurchased $15.1 million of senior notes through open market transactions. And subsequent to quarter end, we had repurchased an additional $134.9 million of various maturities of senior notes, all at approximately 96% of par.

We will continue to be prudent allocators of capital and seek to capitalize on opportunities that generate the best possible return for our unitholders. Finally, in April, we declared a base distribution of $0.875 per unit, which is in line with our previous announcement in February, an increase of 52% compared to the prior quarter’s distribution and is payable on May 15 to unitholders as of May 1. Based on our throughput performance to date, we now expect our portfolio-wide average year-over-year throughput to increase by mid- to upper teens percentage for natural gas, low teens percentage for crude oil and NGLs a mid- to upper teens percentage for produced water. It’s important to remember that our 2024 throughput expectations account for the non-core asset sales we announced in February and exclude those volumes from our 2023 reported results for year-over-year comparative purposes.

In the Delaware Basin, we now expect stronger year-over-year average growth rates for 2024 relative to 2023 for all 3 products: natural gas, crude oil and NGLs and produced water. This will mostly be driven by strong produce in a steady number of wells coming online ’24, which has increased slightly relative to our initial expectations in February. We also signed an agreement to add one of our first third-party customers for crude oil and NGLs gathering and treating services in the Delaware Basin, which we expect to begin yielding benefits from late in the second quarter. In the DJ Basin, we continue to expect average year-over-year throughput to increase for both natural gas and crude oil and NGLs. This increase will be driven by throughput growth from approximately double the new well count in 2024 relative to 2023.

As a reminder, increases in crude oil and NGL throughput in 2024 will have a minimal impact on our adjusted EBITDA in the near term due to the current structure of demand fee revenue. Finally, we continue to expect meaningful throughput growth from the Powder River Basin in 2024. And especially for natural gas, primarily due to the full year’s contribution from Meritage and steady throughput growth from customers in the basin. As customers continue to refine their drilling programs in the basin, we will continue to work together and allocate the necessary capital to help them accelerate their development plans in the Powder River Basin. Given first quarter’s outperformance and our updated throughput expectations, we now expect to be towards the high end of our previously announced adjusted EBITDA range of $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion for the year.

However, we expect our adjusted gross margin to be flat in the second quarter, primarily due to lower distributions from equity investments from the closing of the non-core asset sales. Additionally, we expect higher operation and maintenance expense in the second quarter mostly due to higher expected utility costs and increased asset maintenance and repair expense to result in slightly lower adjusted EBITDA on a sequential quarter basis. We continue to expect our 2024 capital expenditure guidance to range between $700 million and $850 million, implying a midpoint of $775 million. We still expect just over 80% of our capital budget to be spent in the Delaware Basin, the majority of which has expansion capital for the North Loving plant construction and additional core operating facilitate continued throughput growth.

Taking into account the high end of our adjusted EBITDA and our unchanged capital expenditure guidance ranges, we now expect to be towards the high end of our previously announced free cash flow guidance range of $1.05 billion to $1.25 billion. Our full year base distribution guidance of at least $3.20 per unit remains unchanged. We will continue to evaluate the base distribution on a quarterly basis, influenced by the health and growth trajectory of our business. If performance materializes in line with current expectations, we would expect greater opportunity to evaluate increased returns of capital. As a reminder, any potential enhanced distribution payment in 2025 will be based on our full year 2024 financial performance governed by our 2024 year-end leverage threshold of 3x and subject to the board’s discretion.

Finally, we expect to be free cash flow positive after distributions in 2024. When taking into account the high end of our free cash flow guidance range and our unchanged base distribution guidance. I’ll now turn the call back over to Michael.

Michael Ure: Thank you, Kristen. Before we open it up for Q&A, I would like to highlight a few key points and reiterate why WES presents such a compelling investment opportunity. First, I think it is important to reflect on the actions we have taken to optimize the MLP model and position WES as a leader amongst our peers in the midstream space. Since becoming a stand-alone enterprise in 2020, we have taken significant steps to optimize our asset portfolio, reduce operational costs and focus on generating substantial free cash flow. In fact, we were the first midstream MLP to focus on free cash flow as a financial performance indicator versus the conventional MLP metrics of distributable cash flow and distribution coverage. This shift resulted in the creation of our robust capital return framework that has included substantial debt reduction, opportunistic unit buybacks and the implementation of our enhanced distribution framework designed to return excess cash to unitholders.

Additionally, we were one of the first midstream MLPs to enhance our liquidity and greatly strengthen our balance sheet by selling non-core assets, prudently investing expansion capital in line with producer minimum volume commitments and aligning our distribution policy with a general growth trajectory of our business. This strategy, along with our strong capital return framework has optimized the MLP model and transformed WES into a leader within the midstream space. With that said, the current average MLP valuation trades at approximately 8x, a discount of 5.5x compared to the average MLP valuation from 2011 through 2016. Furthermore, despite stronger balance sheets, plentiful liquidity and strong future business prospects, the average current distribution yield is just over 9% compared to the average MLP distribution yield of 7% from 2011 through 2016, a time when midstream MLPs generated negative free cash flow and leverage was increasing.

Over the last few years, the operating model of many midstream MLPs has changed. And while both models provide the same tax deferred benefits the new MLP model has made great strides in addressing the deficiencies of the old MLP model, improving the health and sustainability of the partnerships, and enhancing LP unitholder benefits by removing incentive distribution rights, for example, the new MLP model is deserving of a valuation rerate and at current valuations presents a very compelling investment opportunity, taking into account historical valuation multiples for the midstream space. Furthermore, when you take into account WES’ recent annualized distribution increase our partnership now provides the highest distribution yield compared to the average yield of other midstream peers and of all subsectors within the S&P 500 Index.

WES now provides one of the strongest tax deferred investment opportunities, not only within the midstream space, but relative to all subsectors of the S&P 500. Additionally, while we don’t endorse the accuracy or completeness of consensus estimates, we note that multiyear consensus for WES shows free cash flow generation increasing over the coming years. If achieved, this growth should result in leading free cash flow yields relative to our midstream peers and potentially allow for incremental opportunities to return capital back to stakeholders. In 2025, for example, many of our peers would need to generate substantially more free cash flow than their current 2025 consensus estimates to match WES’ approximate 11% estimated free cash flow yield.

This endorses the fact that even in the longer term, WES remains comparatively undervalued relative to peers within an MLP valuation paradigm that itself feels undervalued. Furthermore, as an MLP, we are not subject to the incremental cash flow burden associated with income taxes, thereby creating incremental opportunities to allocate capital back into growing the business or to stakeholders. The adoption of strong operating philosophies in combination with our strong diversified asset base, low leverage and robust free cash flow have all resulted in a more sustainable, financially secure partnership WES has clearly transformed into a leader within the midstream space and is much better positioned to navigate obstacles and capitalize on future opportunities.

To close, I would like to thank the entire WES workforce for all of their hard work and dedication. Our strong first quarter performance provides a great start to the year, and our teams are focused on making substantial progress towards achieving our 2024 goals. With that, we will open the line for questions.

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Q&A Session

Operator: [Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Keith Stanley from Wolfe Research.

Keith Stanley: Just wanted to start and ask how much progress has been made on securing new firm contracts that would support another plant beyond North Loving. Are you far along in getting more contracts for that? Or is there still a lot of work to do before you can move forward with another plant?

Michael Ure: Yes, Keith. At this stage, we’re not actually seeing the need to have — to add another plant at North Loving. Again, a reminder, we’re expecting to have North Loving One come online Q1 to 2025. And as it sits right now, we’re not actually seeing the need to add incremental plant capacity after that.

Keith Stanley: Great. Second one, just Occidental slides, the other day, they showed an uplift for them from — over the next few years from midstream contract expirations. I want to just confirm that’s with other midstream providers and you don’t see any meaningful amount exposed on the west side, given your contracts generally run longer duration?

Michael Ure: Yes. None of those figures are actually relative to contracts with WES.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Spiro Dounis from Citi.

Spiro Dounis: Maybe just go back to Keith’s initial question, just thinking about the processing needs going forward. Maybe just give us a sense for Mentone coming online, how quickly that fills up. And then with North Loving, how quickly that builds up as well? And just maybe how you’re planning to utilize offloads from here, which have been pretty effective in defraying some of the cost of capital here?

Michael Ure: Yes. So Spiro, thanks for the question. So we are operating at full capacity for Mentone III. We do still have some offloads that will continue up until we bring North Loving I online in Q1 in 2025. So again, they’ll continue to bridge us until we get that online at that time.

Spiro Dounis: Okay. Understood. And then maybe just thinking about the commercial side of things, Kristen, I think you had mentioned a new third-party customer on the NGL side. And I guess, let me just take a step back at one point in time when you were sort of spinning out to more of an independent company, there was this broader push to bring in more third-party business. Just kind of curious to get an update on where that stands and where it stacks up on the priority list for you.

Kristen Shults: Yes. That’s still a huge priority for our team. They’ve brought in, and we’ve covered this kind of in last year’s year-end call as well just numerous customers in the Delaware Basin as well as new business with existing customers. So in fact, if you look at our Delaware Basin and third-party growth, it’s double what the Permian growth has been over the last few years as well. And that’s really a testament to the hard work that our commercial operations, engineering teams have been doing our ability to get our cost down and really go after that business.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JP Morgan.

Noah Katz: This is Noah Katz on for Jeremy. First, I wanted to touch on the timing of the non-core asset sales you guys closed on in the quarter. Previously, we expected a step down in the crude and NGL volumes within equity interest in the first quarter with 2 in the sales in the first quarter and 3 in the second quarter. Can you speak to how the difference in timing impacted results for the quarter and the cadence of the step down in equity investment volumes? Like what should we expect throughout the remainder of ’24?

Kristen Shults: Yes. So we closed on 4 of the 5 asset sales in Q1. So you did see a volume step down from Q4 of ’23 to Q1 of 24. I still expect there to be because of the lost sale that we closed in Q4 and just the timing within Q1, you’ll see another a little bit of a step down from Q1 to Q2. And overall, with all of the APA divestitures, the oil volume should be decreasing relative to last year, about 2/3 by the time you’re all said and done.

Noah Katz: That’s helpful. And as a follow-up, can you speak to your expectation for CapEx cadence throughout ’24? I mean you guys reported about $205 million in the quarter, and I think you have guidance for the full year at $775 million at the midpoint. So just trying to think through how the rest of the year should shake out now that Mentone III is in service.

Kristen Shults: Yes. So Q1 strong capital for the quarter. I would expect to see that for second quarter and third quarter as well. We’ve got — we are full steam ahead and building on North Loving there as we get towards maybe the latter part of the year, we might see a little bit of a step down in Q4, but pretty strong as we’re looking through the summer months and into the fall.

Operator: [Operator Instructions]. Your next question comes from the line of Zach Van Everen from TPH & Company.

Zach Van Everen: Just on the free cash flow continuing to increase. Do you guys have a preference between buybacks and just letting the enhanced distribution kick in if it meets all those metrics?