Waste Connections, Inc. (NYSE:WCN) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Worthing Jackman: Right. Because what puts us to the closer to $50 million here, obviously, is the additional sustainability CapEx, right, as well as higher interest rates, higher cash taxes, et cetera. But in October, we knew where interest rates were going, and we knew what cash taxes were going in to Mary Anne’s point, that’s — this isn’t — we don’t see here today surprised by the year-over-year changes. Yes, cash taxes are up $100 million. We knew that. We know cash interest is up. It’s more so for us for acquisition outlays. It’s just that, as you know, the total debt outstanding grew by about $1.8 billion year-over-year. And you put any sort of floating rate of 5%, 5.5% on that, I’m not surprised that cash interest is up $65 million or something year-over-year.

And so it’s — anyway, that’s not a surprise. It’s just the 50 unit — the $50 million in fleet. As we move through the last four months, I mean the numbers of delays went from less than 50 and maybe we’ll still get them to 125 to 170 to 200 to 205 units as you exited the year. We’re sitting here waiting for a fleet we ordered two years ago that still hasn’t been delivered, right? The ’22 CapEx was ordered in early ’21. And so it’s that uncertainty. The good news is we held it to $50 million because we were able to pay for the chassis. And it’s really just the bodies on 200-plus units that the cost of that, that shifted into this year.

Michael Hoffman: Okay. And then can you share with us as bonus depreciation unwinds, what’s the total dollar amount that is going to walk back through?

Worthing Jackman: Yes. I mean it’s obviously, in this CapEx outlay, it’s tough to — on a dollar basis, it’s going to emerge. But because what happens is there’s certain limitations of how much bonus appreciation we apply in any one year. Our cash taxes this year ought to be 65% to 70% of the GAAP accrual because of the amount of bonus depreciation carryover that we didn’t use in prior years, right? And so it’s not as a direct step down that other companies might have been talking about because we have a little different book here.

Michael Hoffman: Okay. And then if I could shift gears to the RNG. If I include Louisiana, plus the 4 that are being developed, how many MMBtu will you own when you’re done in that $200 million of EBITDA?

Worthing Jackman: I don’t have that number. That sounds more like an engineering question. But look, I think more about revenue and if we are — if we did, what, about $100 million or so of landfill gas and RINs revenue last year, and we stepped that up to $300 million or so by ’26, we’re going — and by the end, the company, obviously, will be bigger than the $8 billion we’re guiding to now. And so overall, on a revenue basis, RINs could become in landfill gas could get to that 3% or so of revenue from the one, 1.5 percentage right now.

Michael Hoffman: Okay. Sliced a different way, is your base assumption at $2 RIN and at $2.50 gas to get to that revenue number?

Worthing Jackman: Right.

Michael Hoffman: Okay. Everybody wants to ask about volume, and I’ve always heard you say you’ll trade volume for price all day long. But another way to talk about volume is service intervals, sort of what’s the underlying trend in the small container business. How would you frame that? Because I think that’s the…

Worthing Jackman: I mean, as I look at just the last six months of last year to see that net new business remained positive through the year on a month-to-month basis. And so obviously, increases in new business are more than offsetting loss in any decreases.

Michael Hoffman: Okay. And then you always have a phrase for each year. So can you share with us what growth of gratitude is what’s the message?

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