Waste Connections, Inc. (NYSE:WCN) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Worthing Jackman: So as you see that play out with a total that we’ve talked about for RNG and then you’ve got the 2 recycling facility plants. I mean that — as that CapEx kind of burns off through ’25, then you see the CapEx as a percentage of revenue dipped back down. That’s when you see the conversion of free cash flow to revenue, again, start approaching 16.5% again. And that’s when, if you start layering on the contribution of the renewable fuel plants by ’26, that additional $200 million or so structurally move the free cash flow generation to revenue by ’26 to about 17.5% of revenue.

Operator: Next question will be from Tyler Brown, Raymond James.

Tyler Brown: Mary Anne, did I hear you right, but at this point, 75% of your pricing is already set for ’23. And if that is right, doesn’t that feel a bit more visible at this point in the year, would that be fair?

Mary Anne Whitney: That is. It’s a great point, Tyler. So typically coming into the year, by the time we report Q1, we’re in the position to make a statement like that, that 75% plus is either in place or is known because it’s linked to a CPI adjustment, which has a look-back period. And this year, we’re that much further ahead because of the nature of the price increases in ’22. So if you think about it, there are a few different buckets that contribute to the 75% that’s known or in place. One is the rollover contribution from PIs done last year, which, of course, accelerated over the course of the year. And so it sets us up for having more rolling over. The next piece is the CPI-linked contracts, which as we’ve talked about, step up from 5% to 7% in 2023.

So that piece is known. And then the final piece is what we’ve already put in place with our typical early approach to pricing, which was no different this year. We hit it hard doing the vast majority of our price increases in January this year. And so the combination of those 3 buckets really is what gets you to about 75%, as we described it already known or in place.

Tyler Brown: Yes. Perfect. Okay. That’s very helpful. And then can we quickly re-walk the Q4 margin? I think margins were down 30 basis points. I think you said 150 basis point headwind in commodities. But how much specifically from M&A and maybe some fuel impacted margins? Can you just go those really quick?

Mary Anne Whitney: Sure. So the pieces are that there was a 60 basis point drag, 6-0, from acquisitions, which is why we made the point that it was up 30 basis points year-over-year ex acquisitions. And that was in the face of fuel was about a 60 basis point headwind and recycled commodities were about 150 on their own.

Tyler Brown: And then if I’m not mistaken, do you have a hedge position in your fuel. How does that play out for next year? I’m certainly assuming that’s in the guide. But I just want to — maybe when we think about this ’23 margin walk, you talked about the 100 basis points from commodities, but what about from fuel? And then specifically as well, what about from M&A? It just seems like you bought some very nice vertically integrated companies in ’22. So is that maybe not as big of a drag?

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