Waste Connections, Inc. (NYSE:WCN) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Michael Hoffman: Okay. All right. And then last one, I get it. Your experience on elevated temperatures, there is none, because it hasn’t happened to you. You did mention that this has been something in the modern era of landfill design we’ve been dealing with. What’s the engineering department saying about the long-term outlook here? Do you actually reverse the temperature or you stabilize it. And therefore, that’s what you’re trying to get your hands around to talk to us about in February?

Ron Mittelstaedt: Yes. No, Michael, you actually reverse the temperature – as you reverse the temperature, which is what we are doing. We have added significant number of wells in this late in the third quarter and so forth through the fourth quarter. we have add it over 50 new wells to pump out leachate and gas and reverse the temperature. As the temperature reverses and cools, the reaction stops and the generation of water stops. And that is the resolution.

Michael Hoffman: And when it comes down, the leachate management costs, which are running somewhere, $0.10, $0.15 a gallon. So it’s a big number.

Ron Mittelstaedt: Yes, they’re actually $0.38 a gallon in LA. Because we’re trucking it all off to POTW. Because of the magnitude right now, we cannot recirculate when it comes down. There’s a partial that we can recirculate during times of the year, but yes, it comes down dramatically, Michael.

Michael Hoffman: Okay, thank you very much.

Operator: And our next question today comes from Bryan Burgmeier with Citi. Please go ahead.

Bryan Burgmeier: Good morning. Thank you for taking the question. Ron, you may have alluded to this earlier on, I think, Kevin’s question, and sorry if I missed this. But 3Q EBITDA was essentially in line with your guidance despite these kind of unexpected landfill costs. Is it possible to say what was maybe better than expected that allowed you to get back to your guide?

Ron Mittelstaedt: Is it possible to say what would be better? Is that what you said?

Bryan Burgmeier: Yes, yes. If you had $15 million in kind of unexpected landfill costs in the quarter, but you still kind of met your guide, what maybe came in above your expectations that netted out [indiscernible]

Mary Anne Whitney: So I’d say – what we’d say is, it’s really the execution, the delivery in Q3, and as I described, the margin expansion comes from lots of small improvements within the P&L. And so within solid waste, we did a little better than expected. And then I’d say arguably we had a little assist from E&P waste, which did step up sequentially in Q3. It was largely execution.

Ron Mittelstaedt: Yes. Generally, E&P does step down some in Q4, Bryan, so that might not be the same assist that it was in Q3. You had a little assist from RINs elevating at the end. So that right now appears to be holding, but we certainly can’t project that to hold. And then you have, as we said, special waste was a little better than we had projected. It was up in the quarter, whether or not that comes through in the fourth quarter, because you start to get into the winter weather. So those are things we’re not projecting, and some are weather dependent. Those are the kinds of things that could make that come through.

Bryan Burgmeier: Understood. Thanks for the detail. And last question for me, I was just wondering if you can provide an update on truck orders. The data, some of the comments from your peers seems pretty positive. Do you have a sense for maybe what percent of your 2023 orders are going to come in this year? And as you start to look out in 2024, does it seem like backlogs are maybe shrinking or expanding?

Ron Mittelstaedt: Yes. Our experience is a little bit different than at least our large public peer. That may be due to their buying power, because of their size. But we experience – we are being told and we are planning that we’ll get somewhere in the high-80%s s to almost 90% of our chassis and bodies. Therefore, the full units delivered this year. We expect somewhere in that 10% to 12% to push or roll into 2024. By the way, that is a little less than what rolled into 2023 from 2022. So in that way it has improved. But the manufacturers, particularly on the body side, not the chassis side, the chassis side we can get right now, which is opposite of last year, but the manufacturers on the body side are still saying there should be some delays through 2024 and it would be normalized in early to mid-2025. That is what we’re hearing and experiencing.

Bryan Burgmeier: Got it. Thanks a lot. I’ll turn it over.

Operator: And our next question today comes from Tyler Brown at Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Tyler Brown: Hey, good morning.

Ron Mittelstaedt: Hi, good morning, Tyler.

Tyler Brown: Hey, Ron. So, I want to come back to turnover. So I think you guys gave some great statistics in the ESG report. You talked about voluntary turnover, I think in 2022, correct me if I’m wrong, but it was circa 21%. You mentioned that here in recent quarters you have improved, but can you tell us where that number is today? I think you said it was down 20%. So is it basically already back down to that mid to high-teens kind of where we were pre-COVID?

Ron Mittelstaedt: Yes, it’s 17.4% [ph] right now.

Tyler Brown: Okay. And so the whole idea here is that leads, but the benefits are a bit lagged. So that’s what’s really going to help us in 2024 and likely off into 2025.

Ron Mittelstaedt: Yes, that’s right. Our objective is to continue to drive that voluntary down further. Our involuntary, meaning us making a proactive decision will run higher for a little while because we accepted employees that were probably a little more marginal than we would have otherwise and maybe a little more risk. And so as voluntary comes down, we’ll be more active on the involuntary, and then that will fall too as we re-staff with a little bit more of a higher caliber employee in those. So that’s how that will flow.

Tyler Brown: Okay. Perfect. And I want to kind of come at the landfill developments here a little bit different way. So typically how long would it take to rectify a slope failure? And typically, how long does it take to remediate one of these elevated temperature events? I mean, I appreciate maybe you’re somewhat new to some of it, but I think I heard you said that the slope event maybe is a one to two quarter issue, but the temperature remediation could definitely take longer since it’s in the landfill. Is that right?