Warner Music Group Corp. (NASDAQ:WMG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Steve Cooper: All right. So, Eric, I’ll go first, and thanks for the question. I do think that our business is to a certain degree, misunderstood, and it’s misunderstood in the following context. When you look at the results we produce over the longer term, call it for argument’s sake, a year, versus the shorter term, our march for the last, I don’t know, nine or 10 years, has been steadily northward bound, both by way of the topline and by way of the bottom line. And my expectation would be that that steady march North will continue for the foreseeable future. That being said, I think that many investors evaluate us on a quarter to quarter to quarter basis. And as I believe many of our investors have seen, that quarters can be impacted by any number of extraneous items.

But as those extraneous items, whether it be shifts and release schedules, getting a deal done a quarter late versus a quarter early, what we have done, both by bolstering our investments in recorded music, by bolstering our investments in publishing and with publishing now having lagged by way of the growth of digital revenue, is now leading by way of that growth through the focus that we’ve put on diversification over the last four or five or six years. Diversification, both geographically, that is local language, with emerging platforms, emerging markets, that I think that all of these quarter-to-quarter blips have a tendency to be ironed out over an extended period of time. Again, call it a year, and that the really observant investors will see that despite those blips, that year-to-year, year-to-year, year-to-year, that march North continues.

And it’s continued this year despite choppiness in a couple of quarters. So, I think it’s – valuing us or evaluating us as a quarterly business, is somewhat misguided. And I think evaluating us on an annual basis or a rolling 12-month basis is, at least from my perspective, a far better way of looking at how we are doing, the health of our company, and the trends we’re setting. So, hopefully, that answers your question.

Eric Levin: Good. I fully agree with Steve on that. So, Kutgun, thank you for both your questions. I’ll answer your second one on streaming. So, let me break that into two pieces, kind of 2022 and then forward-looking. So, in 2022, on an adjusted basis, meaning looking at the underlying trends of streaming, Q4 grew 10% and the full year grew 13%. Very strong streaming results in a challenging macro market. In Q4, we saw subscription streaming grow low teens, a very strong result. Ad-supported though is significantly affected by the macro environment. Ad-supported declined and declined in the high single digits this quarter. As we look forward, we think there’s a lot to be really quite positive and optimistic about. I will point towards Goldman’s Music in the Air forecast, just because it gives an interesting and we think useful template to look at.

They see subscribers doubling, or quite frankly, more than doubling over the next seven to eight years. It’s driven by a couple of components, and each of the components I’ll try and address and paint what we think is the picture. Developed markets, which are round, which are penetrated in the 30% now, we’ve seen market studies and forecasts that predict that increasing to 50s or even 60% penetrations as you look forward five, six, seven years. We think we are seeing consistent growth in developed markets today, and we think there’s a lot of runway to be looking forward to. What is now really additive to that is, we’ve seen price increases just in the past quarter from Apple, Deezer. Others have talked publicly about considering price increases.