Vivid Seats Inc. (NASDAQ:SEAT) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Vivid Seats Inc. (NASDAQ:SEAT) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript March 7, 2023

Operator: Good morning. And welcome to Vivid Seats’ Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Following management’s prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q&A. I would now like turn the call over to Kate Copouls. Please go ahead.

Kate Copouls: Good morning, and welcome to Vivid Seat’s fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. I am Kate Copouls, Head of Investor Relations at Vivid Seats. Joining me today to discuss Vivid Seats results are Stan Chia, Chief Executive Officer; and Larry Fey, Chief Financial Officer. By now, everyone should have access to the company’s fourth quarter earnings press release filed earlier this morning. We have also provided supplemental earnings slides. The press release and earnings slides are available on the Investor Relations page of Vivid Seats’ website at investor.vividseats.com. During the course of this call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to the risks and uncertainties as described in the company’s earnings press release and other filings with the SEC.

On today’s call, we will refer to adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin, which are non-GAAP financial measures that provide useful information for our investors. You will find a historical reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin to the corresponding GAAP measure in the earnings press release, supplemental earnings slides and SEC filings. And now, I would like to turn the call over to Stan.

Stan Chia: Good morning everyone. And thank you for joining us today. 2022 was a stellar year for live events and an exceptional year for Vivid Seats. Our team capitalized on strong demand, continued to innovate and expand our suite of leading marketplace products, navigated the competitive landscape with agility and delivered on financial and strategic objectives that strengthened our business for 2023 and beyond. Larry will take you through the fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results in detail and discuss our outlook for 2023. But first, I’d like to share highlights from our first full year as a public company and discuss the progress we’ve made on strategic objectives. Looking first at the most recent fourth quarter, I am proud to report that we generated $846 million of Marketplace GOV, $165 million of revenues and $34 million of adjusted EBITDA.

For the full year 2022 we delivered Marketplace GOV of $3.2 billion, revenues of $600 million and adjusted EBITDA of $113 million. At Vivid Seats we commit as a team to achieve our goals. Over the last year, we’ve demonstrated our ability to leverage our robust tools and execute adeptly regardless of the environment, which became more challenging as the year progressed. We continued to set new records in 2022 with Marketplace GOV and revenues both surpassing 2021’s records by more than 30%. 2022 Marketplace GOV and revenues also exceeded our initial guidance midpoint by 10%. Even with unprecedented competitive pressures in the second half, we delivered adjusted EBITDA within our guidance range while making deliberate investments to drive higher customer lifetime value.

As we all witnessed, 2022 was a phenomenal year for the live event industry. Live events were back and then some after seeing some cancellation impact from the Omicron variant in the first quarter, the risk of substantial disruption from COVID-19 waned throughout the year. As a result, fans were able and eager to get out and see the artists and teams they love. Among our event categories, which include concerts, sports, and theater, concerts were a particular standout benefiting from strong demand as well as a tailwind from postponed events originally scheduled for 2020. As the year progressed, macroeconomic pressures grew, but live event demand remained resilient. We consistently raised our guidance from Marketplace GOV and revenues as we capitalize on strong demand.

We are hopeful that this resiliency continues in 2023, but ultimately that will depend on how the economy evolves and where consumers prioritize their spend. That said, exciting tour announcements from top artists such as Beyoncé, Madonna, Metallica, and SZA, in addition to several mega tour announcements last quarter are promising. What’s clear is that fans are passionate about their favorite artists and teams, and we continue to invest in that passion, creating exceptional experiences and enabling fans to attend more of their favorite events. Our focus on user engagement within our product ecosystem continues to be one of the pillars of our long-term strategy. In 2022, we rebranded integrated, and enhanced Vivid Pix, while continuing to grow our user base.

Year-over-year, we increased both our monthly active users and new accounts created by close to 300%. In the fourth quarter, we launched in-game play capability within Vivid Pix, and now our daily fantasy sports users can place entries for contests covering the second half of the game. Whether fans are attending a live event or at home watching, fans may place entries as the game approaches and as the action evolves. This upgrade adds another level of excitement to the Vivid Pix experience as fans engage with their favorite teams and athletes, as well as with other DFS players through social elements. This is especially beneficial for cultural touchstone events like the Super Bowl. We also create exceptional experiences through our brand partnership, such as Rolling Stone.

Collaborations on exclusive live events are a key component of our partnership, and for the third year, we were proud to partner on the Rolling Stone Live series and bring to life one of Super Bowl weekends most anticipated events. Through our loyalty program, Vivid Seats Rewards, we surprised loyalty members with invitations to an exclusive live experience that expertly intersected the worlds of music, culture and sports. Brand partnerships and exclusive events such as these bring differentiated experience and value to our buyers in addition to driving brand awareness with the right audiences. As we reflect on the past year, many of our exciting announcements focused on the buyer side of our marketplace, including our Real Rewards for Real Fans campaign and our partnerships with Bleacher Report and the New York Post.

This quarter, we are pleased to share a substantial development on the seller side of our marketplace. Skybox has been the industry leading ERP for professional sellers for years. In this quarter, we are excited to announce Skybox Drive, an intelligent automation that optimizes revenue for our sellers on Skybox. Our broad swath of industry data has allowed us to develop a product that provides sellers a turnkey solution to customize and automate their revenue optimization strategies, seamlessly integrated into Skybox and powered by our marketplace data. Together, Skybox and Skybox Drive present a unique and unmatched offering that will further deepen our seller relationships, as well as continue growing our install base. Skybox, combined with our proprietary marketing algorithms, provide us with the most complete view of the industry in real time, allowing us the ability to efficiently and effectively acquire new buyers.

And recently, with unified user profiles across Vivid Seats and Vivid Pix, we have unique insights into fan preferences that power an evolving personalization engine that nurtures our relationship with sports and music enthusiasts. These capabilities continue to differentiate us in the highly competitive ticketing landscape. We continue to invest in superior product and service for both buyers and sellers to drive long-term differentiation and stickiness in our marketplace. We are seeing encouraging signs of that stickiness with a large and growing base of sellers on Skybox and increasing buyer repeat rates. In 2022, particularly in the second half, we saw competitors’ ramp aggressiveness in performance marketing channels, which elevated customer acquisition costs across the industry.

Meanwhile, we continued to build differentiated product, drive brand affinity and target high value audiences with attractive repeat tendencies to create value in the long term. Loyal buyers making repeat purchases are accretive to margins and we believe we can temper near term CAC headwinds with increased customer lifetime value as our initiatives continue taking hold. Next, I’ll address some of those initiatives in more detail. 2022 was an exciting year for Vivid Seats as we used new and expanded strategies to drive engagement and grow affinity for our brand. Beyond integrating Vivid Pix, we also expanded and invigorated our social and experiential presence. These efforts included new platforms such as TikTok, expanded partnerships with influencers and creators and new experiential activations onsite at events and festivals.

With unified customer profiles across Vivid Seats and Vivid Pix, we became more selective and sophisticated in targeting high value sport and music enthusiasts. We continue to grow our suite of tools to target the right buyers in accretive channels. Regardless of channel, we communicate a proven and compelling message. Vivid Seats is the only ticketing company to offer rewards, and our rewards offer real and differentiated value. With our multifaceted brand investments in play, we are seeing traction in driving targeted brand awareness and affinity. Fans are engaging with Vivid Seats more often, while expressing positive sentiment toward the brand. In fact, our net social sentiment is highest amongst our main ticketing competitors. While opportunity to optimize our marketing capabilities and continue growing brand awareness remains, we are pleased with the results we’ve achieved thus far with a relatively modest brand marketing budget.

We are proud of our ability to drive long-term brand affinity, while remaining highly profitable and will continue to do so. Ultimately, our strategy to drive higher repeat rates is two-fold. First, recruit the right buyers; second, once inside our ecosystem, nurture each buyer with differentiated product, service and value. We are excited that our repeat rates continue to trend higher across event categories. This includes repeat rates for new Q4 cohorts despite competitive pressures. Even in the current landscape with higher tax, momentum from our brand investments is building. As we look to the future, we expect tax to normalize, which in conjunction with brand momentum will lead to substantial margin leverage in the medium- to long-term.

Photo by Amy Hirschi on Unsplash

Larry will discuss our outlook for 2023 in detail. But I want to reiterate that we are steadfast in our strategy delivering a differentiated product with a compelling value proposition that fosters value in the long-term. As the landscape eventually rationalizes, we are well positioned to capture disproportionate growth and deliver long-term margin expansion. In the near-term, we are well equipped with a strong balance sheet and will continue to look for opportunities to accelerate growth for our current offerings as well as to expand our TAM through both organic and inorganic investments. Before I wrap up, I want to touch on the ways we are creating exceptional experiences for all of those within our ecosystem most importantly, our people.

In December, we celebrated the grand opening of our new Chicago headquarters and it has been so energizing to bring our employees together in a state-of-the-art collaborative workspace. This is another example of our commitment to fostering talent and encouraging innovation at all levels in our business. We have been recognized for these efforts. We earned a place on Fast Company’s Best Workplaces for Innovators list, and recently we were named to four of built-ins 2023 best places to work lists in both Chicago and Dallas. Lastly, we remain committed to giving back. As a marketplace that truly connects people we understand just how much joy live events create and how they enhance the quality of life for so many. This year we were proud to expand our CSR efforts with a partnership with Make-A-Wish, the global organization responsible for creating life-changing wishes for children with critical illnesses.

Through our charitable foundation, Vivid Cheers, we are providing once in a lifetime experiences by sending these children and their families to their favorite live events. With that, I will turn it over to Larry.

Larry Fey: Thanks Stan. I’ll begin with the discussion of our fourth quarter and full year 2022 results, before turning to our outlook for 2023. The fourth quarter was a compelling cap-stone to our first year as a public company. We delivered another strong quarter and with that hit our revised full-year guidance for each of Marketplace GOV, revenues and adjusted EBITDA. Our fourth quarter 2022 Marketplace GOV of $846 million decreased 3% year-over-year, driven by a 4% decline in total marketplace orders, which was impacted by a lower than normal number of MLB championship series games along with competitive dynamics. For the full year 2022, we delivered $3.2 billion of Marketplace GOV up 33% year-over-year and 40% higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Fourth quarter average order size came in at $388, up slightly year-over-year and 9% above Q4 2019. Our quarterly AOS was volatile throughout 2020 and 2021, but has since returned to the 3% to 4% annual CAGR we have seen historically. Our fourth quarter 2022 revenues of $165 million increased 1% year-over-year, and our take-rate was 16.6%. For the full year revenues of $600 million increased 35% year-over-year and our take-rate was 16.0%. Our full year take-rate which is calculated by dividing our marketplace revenues by our Marketplace GOV was consistent with historical levels when considering the impact of our loyalty program, which is accounted for as a reduction to revenue. Some quarterly variation in our take-rate is normal due to the mix of event categories.

We also experienced additional quarterly take-rate variation in 2022 as we refined our loyalty program assumptions throughout the year, resulting in relative take-rate headwinds in the first half of the year compared to the second half. In the fourth quarter, we generated $34 million of adjusted EBITDA at a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin. For the full year 2022, we generated $113 million of adjusted EBITDA, adding 19% adjusted EBITDA margin. We continued to focus on cost discipline in the fourth quarter with flat sequential G&A expense, net of EBITDA adjustments and expect that trajectory to continue into next year. On the marketing front, we selectively targeted opportunities that provided the proper balance of volume of profitability. This resulted in sequentially higher adjusted EBITDA margins despite continued pressure in performance marketing channels throughout the quarter.

We entered 2022 targeting EBITDA margins of around 21% as we returned the business to scale, layered in public company costs and made deliberate brand investments to position Vivid Seats to win in the long-term. Despite Marketplace GOV and revenue coming in above expectation, EBITDA margins came in at 19% somewhat below our original target, primarily due to elevated marketing activity across the industry. We ended 2022 with $252 million of cash and $273 million of growth debt on our balance sheet. Our cash balance reflects $32 million worth of share of purchases in 2022, including $29 million worth of repurchases in Q4. As of year-end we had repurchased 4.3 million Class A shares at a volume weighted average price of $7.46 and $8 million remained under our repurchase authorization.

Our share repurchase program reduced our total shares outstanding, net of treasury stock to 196 million shares as of year-end. This share balance includes 78 million Class A shares, which are publicly traded and 118 million Class B shares, which are held by our private equity investors and are not publicly traded. Holders of Class A and Class B shares have equivalent per share economic interest in our operating entity. The Class B holder’s interest is shown as a redeemable non-controlling interest on our financial statements and Class B shares are convertible one-for-one into Class A shares. We present consolidated financial statements, which include the entirety of our operations, and we also present earnings per share for our Class A shares only.

This EPS calculation reflects the approximately 40% economic interest in our operating entity attributable to Class A shares, divided by the number of Class A shares outstanding which is approximately 40% of total shares. Our EBITDA-to-cash conversion in 2022 was below typical levels due to several non-reoccurring items including: sales tax payments, pandemic related store credit redemptions and normalization of seller payables as pandemic postponements fully resolved. In aggregate, we estimate these non-recurring items represented $73 million of non-recurring reductions to cash flow in 2022. We have low levels of net interest expense and CapEx, and as we grow working capital is typically a positive contributor to cash flow. With these dynamics, we expect to see normalizing cash conversion in 2023.

In addition to future cash generation, we have a sizable cash balance and low levels of debt such that we can seize on strategic opportunities that may arise in ticketing or adjacent areas. Vivid Picks is just one example of an adjacent TAM enhancing opportunity that is complementary to our ecosystem of buyers, sellers and partners. In addition, we will continue to evaluate all available options to optimize our capital structure and enhance long-term shareholder returns. Turning to our 2023 financial guidance. We anticipate 2023 Marketplace GOV in the range of $3.0 billion to $3.3 billion; revenues in the range of $580 million to $610 million; and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $110 million to $115 million. The live event industry had a stellar 2022 with strong consumer demand and excess supply driven by postponed events originally scheduled for 2020.

We believe the secondary market has grown well above the long-term trend line of 7% to 10% annual growth since reopening after the pandemic. As we enter 2023 coming off several years of record demand, we currently anticipate industry growth to moderate with 2020 volumes approximating 2022 levels. Of note postponed pandemic events, which mostly consisted of concerts provided a one-time tailwind during the second and third quarters in 2022. This dynamic will not recur in 2023 and will offset some underlying market growth. We anticipate adjusted EBITDA will be roughly flat year-over-year. Within this steady level of profitability we expect a continued shift in our marketing spend towards brand investments in 2023. We are excited to have multiple avenues to build long-term value, including a growing array of marketing channels along with strategic opportunities afforded by our profitability and strong balance sheet.

The day-to-day excellence and agility our team demonstrated in 2022 gives us confidence in our ability to seize opportunities in 2023. While we cannot precisely predict how and when the competitive landscape will evolve, history suggests customer acquisition costs will eventually subside. In the meantime, we will tactically balance volume; growth and profitability, while directing marketing spend to channels with attractive economics and investing for long-term stickiness on our platform. We continue to expect long-term adjusted EBITDA margins will approach or exceed 30% as the competitive landscape normalizes. Back to you, Stan.

Stan Chia: Thanks Larry. In conclusion, it was a record 2022 for Vivid Seats and the broader live event industry, and I’m proud of what our committed and talented team achieved. I’m confident that our team, our strategy, our investments, our technology and our balance sheet put us in an excellent strategic position to capture and deliver value both in the near- and long-term. And with that operator, I will open it up for questions.

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Q&A Session

Operator: Thank you. And our first question coming from the line of Stephen Ju with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Stephen Ju: Okay. Thank you. So well, I guess concerts as you guys mentioned particularly strong in 2022. Can you talk about what the mix of events might look like for this year and if we’re indeed going to be looking at a scenario in which sports begin to index higher and concerts lower maybe even back to what the mix was in 2019. Can you talk about how your customer retention rates may change because I would imagine there’s probably greater frequency among the sports fans? And I think both you and Stan €“ Stan and Larry you guys have both mentioned expectation that customer acquisition costs will otherwise normalize. So what gives you the confidence that we will see that perhaps even this year or maybe over the longer term, because not all of its within your control, but if you can speak to what’s driving that confidence that would be helpful? Thanks.

Stan Chia: Yes. Good morning, Stephen. Thanks for the questions. Stephen maybe I’ll take a little bit of where we think our investments in some of the repeat rate dynamics that’s been? And then certainly let Larry kind of talk to you about how we anticipate the full year and the mix shaking out.

Larry Fey: Yes. In a world where you see rising customer acquisition like we talked about, I think it’s really important that you continue to invest in the long-term sustainable things. And I think what we’ve talked about this quarter, which we’re really thrilled about is our investments are really starting to pay dividends, most notably in the forms of our highest repeat rates that we’ve ever seen amongst our customers. And that’s really spread across the categories, right? I think it would be different if we said we saw higher repeat rates in sports versus concerts and we’re mixing into a total higher repeat rate. But when we look at our investments in the loyalty program, some of our engagement protocols, but we’re happy to see is that.

We’re seeing repeat rates higher in every single category that we participate in. And beyond that, as we continue to drive that repeat behavior, we also continue to mix more profitably into a repeat segment of customers. All of that, frankly allowing us to participate in a very CAC intensive environment where some of those effects might look muted at the bottom line, but internally all of that core strength is there, which I think allows us to one, sustain for the very long term; and two, when that environment rationalizes you’ll see a lot of leverage in terms of what we’re driving into repeat users as it flows through to the bottom line.

Stan Chia: And just building on that, on the mixed question, I don’t think we anticipate a meaningful shift from the 2022 mix into 2023 and it’s been reasonably balanced and we see in our business have talked about 60% between concerts and theater, 40% in sports at the pre-pandemic level, and we are almost right on top that for 2022. So maybe a few basis points here and there of variance, but nothing that would impact overall mix in a meaningful way .

Stephen Ju: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. And our next question coming from the line of Ralph Schackart with William Blair. Your line is open.

Ralph Schackart: Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. First question just curious, now that you’re almost through Q1; how is the quarter trending, I guess after coming off of 2022? And then as you think about 2023, can you just remind us what we expect for seasonality through the year that I’d follow-up with?