We came across a bullish thesis on Vistra Corp. (VST) on Value Investing Subreddit Page by desperate-pleasures. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on VST. Vistra Corp. (VST)’s share was trading at $126.87 as of March 5th. VST’s trailing and forward P/E were 18.12 and 18.21 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
High-voltage power lines. Electricity distribution station. high voltage electric transmission tower. Distribution electric substation with power lines and transformers.
Vistra Corporation, a leading power generation and retail electricity company, has been at the forefront of 2024’s AI-driven bull run. The stock skyrocketed fourfold from January 2024 to January 2025, peaking at $191.89 before retreating to approximately $129.00. Despite this pullback, Vistra presents a compelling value investment, as the market appears to be mispricing its potential due to the lack of a formalized deal with data center operators. With four nuclear power plants and diversified energy sources including solar, coal, and natural gas, Vistra is strategically positioned to meet the escalating energy demands of AI infrastructure. Operating in 23 states, primarily Texas, the company boasts a robust 39 GW generation capacity, placing it among the key players poised to capitalize on AI’s insatiable energy appetite.
While some may view Vistra as a growth stock, the company has taken a pragmatic approach by securing government incentives for renewable energy expansion. Their recent acquisition of Energy Harbor bolsters their nuclear capacity, complementing their existing investments in battery storage, making them one of the largest battery storage operators in the U.S. Texas, a critical hub for tech innovation, is experiencing soaring energy demands due to AI, semiconductor manufacturing, and extreme weather conditions, reinforcing the necessity for reliable power providers like Vistra.
Financially, Vistra is in a strong position, generating $4.563 billion in cash flow on $17.22 billion in revenue, with $1.2 billion in cash on hand. While its $16 billion debt load is significant, its robust cash flow comfortably covers debt obligations while allowing for strategic reinvestment. With a trailing P/E of 19.1 and a forward P/E of 17.6, the valuation remains attractive given its rapid growth and exposure to AI, a sector typically commanding premium multiples. Moreover, the company has committed to a minimum of $2.25 billion in share buybacks through 2025, with an additional $1 billion targeted. Insider sentiment is strong, with 23 insiders purchasing shares over the last year, outpacing sellers—an unusual trend among major corporations.
Notably, high-profile investors, including Rep. Nancy Pelosi, have taken sizable positions in Vistra, reinforcing confidence in its long-term trajectory. Pelosi’s purchase of 50 call options with a $50 strike price and January 2026 expiration signals strong conviction, particularly given her track record in well-timed investments. Although the stock has since declined, the size and timing of her trade suggest an expectation of future gains.
Adding to its appeal, Vistra offers a modest 0.70% dividend while prioritizing capital allocation toward expansion. As a legacy U.S. company founded in 1882, it remains insulated from geopolitical risks and tariffs, standing to benefit from pro-domestic policies. Texas, as its core market, provides an ideal foundation for sustained growth in AI-driven energy demand. With its strong financials, strategic positioning, and multiple catalysts, Vistra represents a unique opportunity for investors seeking a blend of value, stability, and upside potential in an AI-powered future.
Vistra Corp. (VST) is on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 120 hedge fund portfolios held VST at the end of the fourth quarter which was 97 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of VST as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than VST but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.