Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

But we have our — we started working this issue. We started working even before we made an announcement about Energy Harbor, because obviously this conflict dates back in time. But I think we have done a very nice job. The team has done a nice job not only hedging for the physical part, but financially hedging curves are up for nuclear fuel. There’s no doubt. You’ll see nuclear fuel quotes in the $9 to $10 a megawatt hour kind of raise that’s kind of an all-in value. We’re still — and I mentioned we’re — historically, we were closer to $5, trending up to $6 for Vistra standalone through 2026. That’s still where we are. We don’t have all the details on the Energy Harbor cost per — I know they reset some of theirs early on as they did their restructuring, but we could have some exposure towards the back-end of a five-year planning horizon on price, just because the curves have moved up.

But there’s also a discussion about domestic sources and incentivizing additional supply, non-Russian that may come into play towards the back-end of our planning horizon. But I think we’ve substantially de-risked physically and financially there, Angie.

Angie Storozynski: Great. Thank you.

Jim Burke: Thanks Angie

Operator: Thank you. The final question comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Durgesh Chopra: Hey. Good morning, Jim. Thanks for taking my questions. Hey, Jim just a more pointed question on the capital allocation and I appreciate you’re going to go to the Board and we’ll have a plan here in the first half of next year. But given the move in the stock and I asked you this on the last call as well, do you kind of still view that the security is undervalued here as we think about buybacks prospectively beyond 2024?

Jim Burke: Yeah. Durgesh, it’s always difficult for management teams to predict where things will go. But yes, if you look at the multiples and ours now raised EBITDA guidance levels and our expected free cash flow generation, I think the multiples are just staying where they’ve been. And we’re just reflecting a much stronger business profile. I think you can obviously make your case as to what’s the right multiple to put on the business. I think there’s been a view that the free cash flow yields need to be 20-plus percent in order to compensate for the risk of being in the business. I think our integrated model has shown a real stability to the business model. And we’ve seen various weather conditions, pricing conditions play out over the course of this year.

And I think our team has managed through that exceedingly well and we’ve raised the out year. So I know Kris put in more of an exclamation point on this on the last call and I’d love to be interested to see if his view has changed, but I’m pretty sure it hasn’t. But I’d like to let him close on this, because I want to make sure you guys know we’re sticking with these four core principles.

Kris Moldovan: Yeah. Durgesh, I’ll just point out obviously as you can see by the pace of our buybacks, we’ve actually picked up the pace in the third and fourth quarter. And as Jim mentioned as we look forward and we still have to get with the Board and talk about a comprehensive plan. But as Jim mentioned our intention would be to maintain the pace that we set this year and potentially look to see whether it should stay that same on same pace going forward or whether it should be increased. So we still feel good about the prices at which we’re buying our stock today.

Durgesh Chopra: Got it. That’s perfectly clear guys. Thank you both. And then just, can I go back to the 16%, I think that was the number, one-six, of customer count growth in the retail segment. Can you just provide a little bit more color? Is that predominantly ERCOT? And then just for us to digest that what’s like a five-year average, so we can see how strong this quarter was really?