Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Jim Burke: Sure. Yes. If you look at the curves David 2026 is looking stronger than 2025. That particularly has moved in the ERCOT region from the last time we spoke. In fact when we had our call in August it was August 9 and August 10 was the all-time peak in ERCOT. So we were busy and we talked about how we needed to make sure that we got through the summer. Most of the pricing volatility in ERCOT came in the back half of August. And I think the forward curve started to reflect that the sort of on paper level of reserve margin may not actually be what the actual reserve margins are under stress conditions. So we have seen the curves move up. As Kris noted they are higher than where they were in May of 2022 still backwardated, but they are higher.

And I think that’s a reflection of the supply-demand calculation that folks are revising for ERCOT. We are still majority open out in the 2026 time period. We have not provided a hedge position, but our anticipation at the moment is that Energy Harbor also has largely remained open in 2026. That’s why we were comfortable saying we expect it to be around that $900 million range. And then we see upside from where we sit today for the rest of the Vistra stand-alone for 2026 relative to 2025.

David Arcaro: Okay. Excellent. I appreciate it. Thanks for the time.

Jim Burke: Thank you, David.

Operator: Thank you. The next question comes from Andrew — I’m sorry Angie Storozynski with Seaport. Please go ahead.

Angie Storozynski: Good morning.

Jim Burke: Good morning, Angie

Angie Storozynski: Good morning. I just had a question about market power issues if any and how those could prevent you from any additional transactions. So you were clearly surprised by the issue that came up with Energy Harbor at the FERC level. And again is there any lesson learned from it? Again do you think that you have grown to the point where you might encounter those issues in other PJM zones?

Jim Burke: Angie we — I don’t think we’ve really learned anything, specifically, from this other than deals get a lot of scrutiny. We actually have in all of our filings and all of the screens we’ve done that we need to do in order to make our filings complete we did not see and still don’t believe that these assets are pivotal in that regard. So I still think we look at the situation in the exact same way as we did when we made the announcement. But we do want to move forward and get this deal done. So we made the modification that we made. Even in ERCOT, our market share — because the markets continue to grow we’re more like a 14%, 15% market share number so there’s even headroom for us to do something in ERCOT and that’s where we have the highest level of relative size compared to others in the market.

So no, I think the field is still open, Angie. I think, we’d love to obviously get this done and move forward and we want to be constructive and work with the regulatory bodies to make sure that that happens in a way they’re comfortable. But no, I don’t think, there’s anything to read through at this point. Of course, we haven’t heard finally from FERC on this matter, but we feel very good about our position on this and we think we have headroom to do additional transactions in all the markets.

Angie Storozynski: Great. And then you mentioned that you guys are waiting for some clarifications around the IRA, especially as those relate to the behind the meter installations. So I’m just wondering, if that’s specifically referring to nuclear PTCs and how transactions with affiliates or non-affiliates will be counted towards the energy growth whatever receipts or margin that is currently in the role. Again, a little bit more clarity around what you’re waiting for to see.