Vista Outdoor Inc. (NYSE:VSTO) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Gross profit decreased 27.6% in Q2 to $115 million, driven by decreased volume and price. Gross margin decreased 382 basis points to 33%. EBITDA was $99 million, down 29.4%, primarily due to decreased gross profit, partially offset by lower selling costs. EBITDA margin was 28.3%, a decrease of 409 basis points. As Eric mentioned, our GEAR Up transformation program for Revelyst is being actioned immediately as we work to simplify and streamline our operations. We currently expect GEAR Up to start contributing limited cost savings in Q4 of fiscal 2024, contribute approximately $25 million to $30 million in realized cost savings in fiscal 2025, and we expect to unlock an estimated $100 million in realized annual cost savings in fiscal year 2027 as a result of this program.

These savings are in addition to the $25 million related specifically to Revelyst as part of our $50 million cost restructuring program announced in April of 2023. Where a total of an estimated $125 million of cost savings related to Revelyst on a run rate basis. In fiscal year 2025, we anticipate that the $25 million to $30 million of cost savings related to our GEAR Up program contributions from our previously announced April 2023 cost restructuring program as well as our previously communicated improvements in supply chain, freight, and lower expected promotions will help as we aim to bring our outdoor product segment EBITDA margins to low double digit levels, or said differently, our standalone Revelyst business, including estimated standalone costs, to high single digit adjusted EBITDA margin.

This would be approximately a 400 basis point improvement from fiscal year 2024. We expect that Revelyst adjusted EBITDA margins will be in the mid-teens, including estimated standalone costs, by our fiscal year 2027, an estimated 1000 basis point improvement over standalone fiscal 2024 with the $125million of realized run rate cost savings being the primary driver of the increase from today’s levels. We are reaffirming the full year 2024 guidance discussed on our conference call a few weeks ago. For the full fiscal year 2024, we expect sales of $2.725 billion to $2.825 billion. Sporting Product sales of $1.45 billion to $1.5 billion and Outdoor Product sales of $1.275 billion to $1.325 billion. Adjusted EBITDA margins between 15.5% and 16.25%, Sporting Products EBITDA margin range of 26.5% to 27.5% and Outdoor Products EBITDA margin range of 7.75% to 8.25%.

Adjusted EPS in the range of $3.65 to $4.5. An effective tax rate of approximately 19.5%, interest expense in the range of $55 million to $65 million, and adjusted free cash flow between $265 million and $315 million. Diving deeper, although we do not provide quarterly guidance, we thought it would be prudent to give more color on our expectations for the remainder of the year. In the Sporting Products segment, Q2 sales were pressured by the market softening across categories. We believe that the current increased global unrest along with the strong hunting season in Q3 and the start of an election season in Q4 will result in more favorable performance than in Q2.We see segment adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid-twenty percent range for the rest of our fiscal year.

In Outdoor Products, as previously mentioned, high interest rates and other short-term factors have impacted consumer demand. We expect consumer demand to be slower for the rest of the calendar year 2023, resulting in channel partners remaining cautious and not increasing their purchasing behavior until calendar year 2024.This dynamic is causing slower than expected inventory sell in, which coupled with promotional pressures as we worked to sell through our high-priced inventory positions during the holiday season, is driving down profitability in Q3.We expect sales to decline in the high single digit range in Q3 versus the prior year period. Returning to low single digit growth in Q4 versus the prior year period. The year-over-year growth in Q4 will be driven by exciting new product introductions in our golf business as well as more favorable purchasing patterns in our Action Sports businesses versus the prior year.

Due to the increased promotional environment of the holiday season and moving through the higher price inventory in Q3, we expect segment adjusted EBITDA margins to be in mid-single digits returning to high-single digits in the fourth quarter as we reduce promotions and start to see the impact of our GEAR Up program read through. With the expected improvement in Outdoor Products to end fiscal year 2024, which includes returning to organic growth and generating segment adjusted EBITDA margins in the high single digits in Q4, Combined with our GEAR Up profitability improvement program, we seek Revelyst adjusted EBITDA dollars on a standalone basis to double in fiscal year 2025.We are also still gaining market share in key categories, which positions us well for a strong start to fiscal year 2025, as we expect demand to return and channel partners to begin purchasing at normal rates again.

Thank you everyone. Operator please open up the line for questions.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. We now have Matt Koranda of Roth MKM. Your line is open.

Matt Koranda: Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Just first on the higher level sale dynamics, involved with the ammo business. Any potential for another buyer to emerge now that that transaction is public and then just could you maybe help us understand the next steps of CFIUS approval as it pertains to the transaction?

A – Gary McArthur: Sure Matt. This is Gary. As to speculating whether another buyer will come forward that would be you know, just speculation, it’s always possible. We as a board and a company are not allowed to go solicit buyers, but, if a qualified bid comes forward, we do have the ability to evaluate such. With regards to CFIUS and other regulatory approvals, we expect to have all of those filed in the coming weeks and, from there, obviously, it will just proceed as they typically do through that process. We do have a shareholder vote that is required that we will anticipate in that March/April time frame and that’s kind of the process for the next steps.

Matt Koranda: Okay. Appreciate that, Gary. Thank you and then maybe just for Jason, can you talk about the dynamic that’s happening in – in the retail and distribution channels as it pertains to 223 and 556. I guess we’ve been seeing some of that inventory clearing in recent weeks what are you seeing in terms of inventory and pricing? And how does that feed into the commentary that you guys provided in terms of the more favorable performance for the next couple of quarters?

Jason Vanderbrink: Yeah. Good question, Matt. So on the 223 and 556, specifically, we don’t do a whole lot of that commercially anymore. Most of ours is tied to law enforcement government contracts. What we’ve seen recently in say, in the last 4 weeks, we’ve certainly seen a POS upticks significantly across broader categories and we watch that daily, literally daily with our customers and then our wholesale partners, we watch their inventory daily, but we certainly have seen an uptick, in the last four weeks across pretty much all categories.

Matt Koranda: Got it and then as it pertains to the near term sort of guidance commentary they provided, the more favorable performance, I guess, just help us unpack what that means. It sounds like, higher revenue, and then you alluded to sort of mid-twenty percent EBITDA margin in that segment, I guess, that might be a little lower than where you were in the second quarter. So just help us kind of square those.

Jason Vanderbrink: Yeah. I think I think on the EBITDA front, we like what we see on the EBITDA front. We’ve always guided towards mid-twenties in the back half of the year. There could be some favorability to that. In the third and fourth quarter, if we see what market trends are and if we can control mix, a little bit and get more profitable items out there than we had assumed. So I think on the revenue side, you know, we don’t guide quarterly. I think it is going to look very similar the first half, the second half will look very similar, and there is a chance that we don’t see the degradation of the profitability that we have predicted in the first part of the year.