We recently compiled a list of Morgan Stanley’s Best Stock Picks: 15 Stocks To Own For 2025. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) stands against Morgan Stanley’s other stock picks.
The tail end of 2024 is seeing a market shift in the stock market as the Federal Reserve has finally signaled that interest rate cuts are on the horizon. This means that cheaper capital might be on the horizon, with the rate cuts coming just as the labor market starts to feel the pinch through lower growth.
It also means that consumer spending can pick up if economic output remains robust. For investors, it creates an opportunity to gain an early foothold into stocks that could benefit from the new environment. On this front, investment banks have been analyzing the situation diligently for quite some time.
One bank that’s out with regular reports is Morgan Stanley. It releases monthly reports that cover the latest trends in the economy and the stock market. The bank’s August report covered some recent trends. It shared that the labor market was one of its most closely watched economic indicators as it was “vulnerable to a further deceleration in economic activity.” To explain why, the bank shared that US excess labor supply, that is the demand minus supply, was at pre pandemic levels that had sustained since 2018. This implies that employers no longer have the incentive to offer lucrative pay packages to attract workers, which in turn leads to less money flowing into the economy to contribute to inflation.
MS added that the three month national unemployment average was 0.5% above the 12 month average, which is a warning bell for the economy. This is because according to one of the most widely used recession indicators, the Sahm Rule, a recession has started once the rate is 0.5% or higher than the 12 month average. MS is not the only one that is ringing warning bells on this front, as JPM also confirmed in early August that the rule was triggered when the unemployment rate jumped to 4.3%. However, it did add that we “do not think a recession is imminent” and “remain constructive on U.S. equities despite increased volatility, and see opportunity to lock in rates before they fall.”
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Returning to MS, it also sees an opportunity in the battered commercial real estate market. It cites the commercial real estate cap rate, which is the rate of return based on its income generation capability, to argue that commercial real estate valuations are currently depressed enough to warrant an investment. The office real estate market had a cap rate of 9% in March 2024 as per MS, for a two percentage point and three percentage point lead over retail and residential real estate, respectively. As for the stock market, the bank shared in August that it still prefers large cap stocks (an important point as you’ll find out when you check out the stocks in this piece).
The bank believes that small caps “are lower in quality, more volatile and carry greater exposure to cyclical sectors relative to large cap,” meaning that their outperformance “requires economic growth acceleration with lower interest rates.” MS warned that “softer economic data may constrain” small cap performance. In terms of data, it argues that small cap performance is dependent on bond yields. This data set shows that when we assume an index value of 100 for US small caps had led benchmark S&P stocks except the Magnificent 7 at a time when 10 year US bond yields were around 1.5% in July 2021, the indexed returns dropped to 90 in July 2023 when the yields were approximately 4.3%.
August’s final week was pivotal for the stock market as Fed Chair Jerome Powell finally signaled that the time for interest rates had come. “The time has come for policy to adjust,” stated Powell at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” he added.
Following the Fed Chair’s remarks, MS was out with its September report. Commenting on the economy, the bank shared that it does not “believe the economy is set to accelerate over the next few months, which makes the S&P 500 around 5650 our near-term upper bound. At the same time, the economy is not collapsing, which makes 5200 attractive and 5350 seem fair. We plan to trade around the ranges.” MS also shares key details for the unemployment rate, which are important when analyzed in tandem with the Sahm Rule. It comments that higher immigration “may be supporting a higher labor force participation rate, which in turn would contribute to a higher reported unemployment rate. From this perspective, a higher unemployment rate is not signaling weakness but rather an increase in the labor supply that would help bring inflation down without affecting growth.”
Subsequently, the bank believes that the percentage of total unemployed accounted for by people who lost their jobs (Job Losers) and the number of total layoffs (Challenger Layoffs) might be more relevant when analyzing the labor market. Job Losers currently sit at 50%, while Challenger Layoffs are less than 50,000 after having jumped to 100,000. In short, this paints a more robust labor market picture that might not signal a recession as the Sahm Rule might have suggested.
Remaining bearish on small caps, it believes that the “window for small cap outperformance is too narrow – requiring “Goldilocks” growth and inflation.” This sentiment is also echoed in the bank’s Vintage Values 2025 stock report, where it comments that its strategists “currently recommend avoiding small caps, and Vintage Values 2025 reflects that view. It skews heavily toward large-cap stocks: 80% of the names are classified as either mega-cap or large-cap.” Mind you, this sentiment was also echoed in the 2024 report, verbatim.
Our Methodology
To make our list of MS’ top stocks for 2025, we ranked MS’ Vintage Value 2025 stock picks by their share price percentage upside based on the bank’s price target.
For these stocks, we also mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here).
A close-up of a modern payments terminal with a pile of credit cards on the side.
Visa Inc. (NYSE:V)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 163
Share Price Target Upside: 12%
Share Price Target: $322
Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) is one the world’s largest payment processors, which lends it a considerable market share and a sizeable moat. It accounts for 61% of the US market by purchase volume, implying that as opposed to growth, customer retention and cost and control are central tenets of the firm’s hypothesis. The former bit is particularly important owing to the rise of digital wallets and the propensity of businesses to avoid dealing with firms like Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) due to high transaction fees. On this front, the firm made history in 2024, when it and smaller rival Mastercard agreed to a whopping $30 billion settlement to help resolve these problems. However, the deal is currently on hold as of June, and if it fails to clear the courts, then Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) could see headwinds to the stock price. The firm, along with Mastercard, also offers 30 day fraud liability protection to consumers, which could become another thorny point with retailers. However, Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) is also improving its service and targeting growth by announcing features such as A2A that allow easy recurring bill payments and expansion into the developing world to target untapped populations.
Aoris Management mentioned Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) in its Q2 2024 investor letter. Here is what the firm said:
“Visa operates the world’s largest payments network, which facilitates the movement of money between merchants, financial institutions, consumers, businesses, and governments.
The company is best known for enabling consumers to make debit and credit card payments. In the year to September 2023, 4.3 billion Visa cardholders made 213 billion transactions on its network, to a total value of US$12.1 trillion.
Compared to cash and cheques, which are still widely used around the world, Visa’s network is a more convenient, secure, and ubiquitous way for consumers to pay. Visa has invested to reduce friction and fraud in the payments experience, to the benefit of both merchants and consumers.”
Overall V ranks 11th on our list of Morgan Stanley’s best stock picks for 2025. While we acknowledge the potential of V as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than V but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.