We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Credit Card Stocks to Buy Now. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) stands against the other credit card stocks.
The market for credit card issuance services has expanded significantly over the last several years. At a CAGR of 9.2%, it will grow from $478.09 billion in 2023 to $522.22 billion in 2024, according to the Business Research Company. Over the coming years, a significant expansion in the market size for credit card issuance services is anticipated. At a CAGR of 8.3%, it will increase to $717.7 billion in 2028, as per the research. Contactless payment usage, data security concerns, cryptocurrency emergence, embedded finance, customization, and personalization are all factors contributing to the growth in the projection period.
The credit card market is still changing, mirroring changes in customer preferences and general economic conditions. According to the Q4 2023 Quarterly Credit Industry Insights Report (CIIR), the average credit card debt per borrower at the end of 2023 was $6,360, a 10% rise YoY. This resulted in a total of $1.13 trillion in credit card debt in the United States the same year. Moreover, the average amount owed by households in the 90th percentile is $11,210, with higher-income households often having larger loads.
According to TransUnion, credit card usage continues to rise, with 167.2 million users expected by mid-2023, representing a substantial rise over the last three years. Furthermore, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, credit cards accounted for 31% of all payments in 2022, although less than 10% of Americans typically utilized cash, according to a December 2023 Forbes Advisor survey.
As per the Federal Reserve Board, credit card delinquency rates have been rising gradually and will reach 3.1% by the end of 2023, the highest level since 2011. Additionally, charge-offs rose in Q2 2024 from 4.16% to 4.38%, a record high of 12.5 years that hasn’t been seen since Q4 2011. Meanwhile, according to Forbes Advisor, the average credit card interest rate in March 2024 was 27.89%, putting financial strain on people with balances.
In the future, digital payment methods are expected to gain popularity; according to a survey conducted in August 2023, more than half of customers preferred digital wallets over traditional cards. This change shows that credit card companies will continue to innovate, even as concerns about interest rates and debt levels persist.
Overall, as we have also mentioned in our article, “7 Best American Bank Stocks To Buy According to Hedge Funds,” the U.S. market for digital banking platforms was estimated at $1.04 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.63% to reach $2.04 billion by 2031.
Looking forward, according to a report, credit card spending is predicted to increase in the mid-single digits by 2024, while balances will fall to the mid-to-high single digits after a substantial rise since 2022. If labor markets are steady, credit performance measures are expected to decline during 2024 and stabilize by early 2025. Despite lower inflation, key problems include resumed student debt payments, high interest rates, and growing living costs.
Yanni Koulouriotis, CFA, Vice President – Global FIG stated:
“Overall, DBRS Morningstar expects a less favorable operating environment for credit card issuers in 2024 as consumer dynamics shift and are less of tailwind to credit card issuer performance. While we expect weaker financial performance in 2024 compared to 2023, we still expect performance to be supportive of current credit ratings.”
Methodology:
We sifted through holdings of credit card ETFs and online rankings to form an initial list of 20 credit card stocks. Then we selected the 10 stocks that were the most popular among institutional investors. The stocks are ranked in ascending order of the number of hedge funds that have stakes in them, as of Q2 2024. We have used the stock’s market cap as a tie-breaker in case two or more stocks have the same number of hedge funds invested.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here)
A close-up of a modern payments terminal with a pile of credit cards on the side.
Visa Inc. (NYSE:V)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 163
The biggest payment processor globally is Visa Inc. (NYSE:V). It handled about $15 trillion in total volume in the fiscal year 2023. It is present in more than 200 nations and accepts payments in more than 160 currencies. Over 65,000 transactions can be processed by its systems in a second.
Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) maintains a cost advantage over its competitors due to the strength of its payment network, which makes it extremely hard to replicate. In fact, the firm has partnerships with over 15,000 financial institutions worldwide and has issued over 3.8 billion Visa cards that are accepted at over 100 million retail locations. Consequently, the company enjoys tremendous profitability.
The company facilitates card transactions by serving as an intermediary between consumers, retailers, and banks. It receives a small cut of the “swipe fee,” about 25 basis points, with the majority of the cost going toward funding merchant rewards programs for customers.
It’s vital to note that Visa does not own or service any of the debt incurred by using its credit cards. As a result, it is not responsible for the $1.14 trillion in consumer credit card debt owed in the United States. This means that its profits and business strategy are generally risk-free, as it does not rely on interest and principal payments for revenue.
Despite economic worries, Visa’s Q2 2024 performance exceeded Wall Street projections due to solid consumer spending on restaurants and travel. Post-earnings, the company’s shares jumped by 2.7%. Except for transactions within Europe, Visa’s payment volume climbed by 8% YoY. This points to a robust demand for international travel, particularly from the United States and Europe. Travel in the Asia-Pacific region did not, however, rebound as quickly as anticipated. The expansion of e-commerce aided in counteracting regional weakness.
The largest payment processor’s net revenue of $8.8 billion surpassed predictions of $8.62 billion, and its adjusted earnings per share of $2.51 outpaced estimates of $2.44. Analysts view Visa’s reaffirmation of its 2024 revenue and profit estimates as a good indication despite industry concerns.
Dan Dolev, senior analyst at Mizuho stated:
“There were a lot of investors who thought that they would have to cut the guidance, and the fact that they did not, is a positive for Visa.”
Aristotle Atlantic Focus Growth Strategy stated the following regarding Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) detracted from portfolio performance in the second quarter despite a solid earnings report early in the quarter that highlighted continued growth in payment volumes and value-added services. However, shares declined late in the quarter due to a court denying a proposed settlement that would have ended interchange fee-related litigation between Visa, Mastercard and merchant plaintiffs. As a result, uncertainty surrounding the possible outcomes of the litigation has created an overhang for Visa’s shares, even though interchange fees are charged by card-issuing financial institutions, not networks like Visa and Mastercard.”
Analysts believe that the company’s recent $30 billion settlement with Mastercard to limit card charges won’t have a significant effect on its financial performance.
Chris Hohn’s TCI Fund Management is the largest shareholder in the company, with 16,797,187 shares worth $4.408 billion.
Overall V ranks 1st on our list of the best credit card stocks to buy. While we acknowledge the potential of V as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than V but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.