Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

We also continue to make our offerings available through third-party platforms. We mentioned ServiceNow last quarter and we are excited to have recently joined the AWS Partner Network to help seamlessly provide our clients running systems in the cloud access to Visa’s solutions, initially starting with Currencycloud, now known as Visa Cross-Border Solutions and Pismo. We also signed an agreement with Stripe for them to distribute Verify solutions through a self-service dispute management platform for their merchants. All of these efforts are part of our strategy to build and offer our solutions for both Visa and our network of networks. Before I hand it to Chris, I wanted to note that we have commenced the exchange offer for Visa’s Class B1 common stock that is set to expire at the end of next week.

I also wanted to highlight that this quarter, after nearly 20 years of litigation, we have agreed to a landmark settlement with US merchants, more than 90% of which are small businesses, lowering credit interchange rates and capping those rates into 2030 once approved by the court. The injunctive relief class settlement also provides updates to several key network rules, giving merchants more choice in how they accept digital payments. Last, let me share a few closing thoughts on the quarter and beyond. First, our second quarter was marked by stable results and strengthened relationships with clients across the globe. Second, as we head into the back half of our fiscal year and beyond, new flows and value-added services remain key areas of focus.

We also see significant opportunity in consumer payments by digitizing cash and check, enhancing our capabilities in e-commerce, and building new solutions for our network of networks. I could not be more excited for what lies ahead. Finally, all of this is possible because of the 30,000 Visa employees who come to work every day in service of our clients and partners, I am grateful for everything that you do, thank you. And now over to Chris.

Chris Suh: Thanks, Ryan. Good afternoon, everyone. As Ryan said, Q2 was a strong quarter with relatively stable growth across payments volume, process transactions, and cross-border volume. Looking at our drivers, in constant dollars, global payments volume was up 8% year-over-year and process transactions grew 11% year-over-year. Cross-border volume growth excluding Intra-Europe was up 16% year-over-year in constant dollars. Fiscal second quarter net revenue was up 10% in nominal and constant dollars, which was slightly above our expectations, primarily due to lower-than-expected incentives and better-than-expected value-added services revenue that collectively more than offset lower-than-expected currency volatility. GAAP EPS was up 12% and non-GAAP EPS was up 20% in nominal and 21% in constant dollars.

So let’s go into the details, starting with total payments volume. Global payments volume growth in Q2 was 8%, consistent with Q1 growth. There are a couple of things I’d like to highlight when comparing Q2 to Q1. First, the extra day for the leap year was a benefit to the quarter. This was offset primarily by slowing payments volume growth in Asia-Pacific mostly due to macroeconomic weakness in Mainland China. When we adjust for Asia and some other smaller factors, we see second quarter global payments volume growth generally in line with the first quarter. Now on to the US. US payments volume grew 6% year-over-year, credit grew 6% and debit grew 6%. Card present spend grew 4% and card not present volume grew 8%. Reg II had a similar modest impact in Q2 as we saw in Q1.

When we normalize for leap year, we see relatively stable US payments volume growth. Consumer spend across all segments from low to high spend has remained relatively stable. Our data does not indicate any meaningful behavior change across consumer segments. Moving to international markets, where total payments volume growth was up 11% in constant dollars. Payments volume growth rates were strong for the quarter in most major regions with Latin America, CEMEA, and Europe, ex-UK, each growing more than 19% in constant dollars. Normalized for leap year and weakness in Mainland China, total international payments volume growth was relatively stable to the first quarter. As a reminder, domestic volumes in Mainland China drive a very small amount of revenue and therefore the impact to our financial statements is not significant.

Now to cross-border, which I’ll speak to in constant dollars and excluding Intra-Europe transactions. Total cross-border volumes were up a healthy 16% in Q2 generally in line with our expectations. Cross-border card not present volume growth, excluding travel and adjusted for cryptocurrency purchases was in the mid-teens, stronger than expected. Cross-border travel volume was up 17% or 152% indexed to 2019. Consistent with our expectations for the year, we continue to see strong travel volume growth in and out of LAC, Europe, and CEMEA and out of the US ranging from 158% to 192% of 2019 levels. The US inbound travel volume has continued to recover within our expectations up several points from Q1 versus 2019 levels. Asia-Pacific travel volume continues to recover, but the pace has been slower than we anticipated.

Travel volume into Asia indexed at 142% of 2019 levels for the quarter, up eight points from Q1, while travel volume out of Asia was up two points to 124% of 2019. We see the primary drivers being one, macroeconomic weakness in key markets like Australia and Mainland China two, weakness in some Asia-Pacific currencies, which is impacting consumer purchasing power, particularly for Japan and three, airline capacity that is still below 2019 levels, particularly the Mainland China and North American corridor. Altogether, we’re pleased with our total cross-border volume growth with e-commerce growth generally offsetting the travel weakness in Asia and this is a great testament to the strength and diversification of our model. Now let’s review our second quarter financial results starting with the revenue components.

Both service revenue and data processing revenue grew generally in line with their underlying drivers, which resulted in their respective revenue yields remaining relatively consistent to the first quarter. Service revenue grew 7% year-over-year versus the 8% growth in Q1 constant dollar payments volume. Data processing revenue grew 12% versus the 11% process transaction growth. International transaction revenue was up 9% versus the 16% increase in constant dollar cross-border volume, excluding Intra-Europe, impacted by lapping strong currency volatility from last year. As volatility reached lows that we haven’t seen in about four years, the revenue growth was lower than we expected. Other revenue grew 37%, primarily driven by strong consulting and marketing services revenue growth and to a lesser extent, pricing.

Client incentives grew 12%, lower than we expected due to client performance and deal timing. Across our three growth engines, consumer payments growth was driven by relatively stable payments volume, process transactions and cross-border volume. New flows revenue improved as expected to 14% year-over-year growth in constant dollars. Visa Direct transactions improved to 31% year-over-year growth helped by growth in Latin America for interoperability among P2P apps. Commercial volumes rose 8% year-over-year in constant dollars. In Q2, value-added services revenue grew 23% in constant dollars to $2.1 billion, primarily driven by issuing and acceptance solutions and advisory services. GAAP operating expenses increased 29% driven by increases in the litigation provision and G&A expenses.

Non-GAAP operating expenses grew 11% primarily due to increases in G&A and personnel expenses. FX and Pismo each represented an approximately half point headwind. Excluding net losses from our equity investments of $30 million, non-GAAP non-operating income was $189 million. Our GAAP tax rate was 15.4% and our non-GAAP tax rate was 16% due to the resolution of some non-US tax matters. GAAP EPS was $2.29 and non-GAAP EPS was $2.51, up 20% over last year, inclusive of an almost one point drag from exchange rates and an approximately half point drag from Pismo. In Q2, we bought back approximately 2.7 billion in stock and distributed over 1 billion in dividends to our stockholders. At the end of March, we had 23.6 billion remaining in our buyback authorization.

Now, let’s move to what we’ve seen so far in April through the 21st. US payments volume was up 4% with debit up 4% and credit up 5% year-over-year, down from March, primarily due to Easter timing. Process transactions grew 9% year-over-year. Constant dollar cross-border volume, excluding transactions within Europe grew 15% year-over-year. Travel-related cross-border volume, excluding Intra-Europe grew 15% year-over-year in constant dollars or 151% indexed to 2019. And cross-border card not present ex-travel grew 15% in constant dollars. Now on to our expectations. Remember that adjusted basis is defined as non-GAAP results in constant dollars and excluding acquisition impacts. You can review these disclosures in our earnings presentations for more detail.

Let’s start with the full year. We are reaffirming our prior year guidance for the full year for adjusted net revenue and operating expense growth in the low-double-digits and EPS growth in the low-teens. As for drivers, things are progressing generally as we expected, except for the trends in Asia that we discussed. Accordingly, we are making a small adjustment to our outlook for total payments volume growth to the high-single-digits from the low-double-digits. Total cross-border volume, excluding Intra-Europe is expected to continue to grow strongly in the mid-teens with the strength in e-commerce generally offsetting weakness in Asia travel. Remember that our drivers assume no recession or no further increase in Reg II impacts. Currency volatility remains low and we are assuming volatility in the third quarter continues at a similar rate to the second quarter and adjusts up slightly in the fourth quarter.

Now on to the third quarter expectations. We expect adjusted net revenue growth in the low-double-digits, generally in line to the adjusted second quarter growth rate. Adjusted operating expenses in the third quarter are expected to grow in the low-teens, driven primarily by Olympic-related marketing expense due to the strong client engagement that Ryan referenced. Non-operating income is expected to be between $50 million and $60 million and the tax rate is expected to be between 19% and 19.5% in Q3 with the full year unchanged. This puts third-quarter adjusted EPS growth in the high end of low-double-digits. For the third quarter, Pismo is expected to have minimal benefit to net revenue growth and an approximately one point headwind to non-GAAP operating expense and an approximately half point drag to non-GAAP EPS growth.

FX for the third quarter is expected to have an approximately one point drag to net revenue growth and approximately one and a half point benefit to non-GAAP operating expense growth and an approximately half point drag to non-GAAP EPS growth. In summary, we had another solid quarter in Q2 with relatively stable underlying drivers and strong financial results. We feel good about the momentum in our business as we head into the second half across consumer payments, new flows and value-added services. We remain thoughtful with our spending plans as we continue to balance between short and long-term considerations in the context of a changing environment. So now, Jennifer, let’s do some Q&A.

Jennifer Como: Thanks, Chris. And with that, we’re ready to take questions, Holly.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first caller is Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW. You may go ahead.

Sanjay Sakhrani: Thank you. Chris, a clarification question. You mentioned Easter was mainly affecting the quarter-to-date trends. Is it fair to assume that the growth rate would be commensurate with the last quarter if you adjust it for that? And then just on a related matter, did the tax refund timings have any impact later in the quarter or in the quarter or into the quarter-to-date trends? Thanks.

Chris Suh: Yeah. Thanks for the question. So April volumes, as I said on the call, through the first three weeks were lower than March — the month of March. This was due to the timing of Easter, which again was in March this year and April of last year. And so once you factor that into March and April growth rates, the change between the months are — the change in growth rate is not meaningful. As far as tax payments at this point, I don’t really have an update. Largely they’ve been consistent at this point year-to-date.

Jennifer Como: Next question, Holly.

Operator: Our next caller is Timothy Chiodo with UBS. You may go ahead.

Timothy Chiodo: Great. Thank you for taking the question. There were some helpful comments around the e-commerce strength within cross-border offsetting some of the travel weakness. When we think about the components of overall cross-border, clearly, there’s the traditional travel, so card present and card not present. And then there’s the traditional e-commerce, right, so retail e-commerce. But there are other faster growing but smaller portions, whether it be the remittances or marketplace payouts or you gave the Thunes example earlier. I was wondering if you could maybe size the, in aggregate, how large some of those other maybe faster growing portions of cross-border have become as a part of the overall mix?

Chris Suh: Yeah, sure. Why don’t I start? Yeah, we don’t have specifics to break-out. As we talked about, the e-commerce business has been strong. It continues to grow above what we expected. The yields across our entire cross-border business are positive and accretive to Visa overall. And so we’re happy with all flavors of cross-border, but I don’t have a further breakout for you in terms of the pieces that you were asking about.

Jennifer Como: Next question, Holly.

Operator: Our next caller is Craig Maurer with FT Partners. You may go ahead .

Craig Maurer: Yeah, thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask a question on US debit trends. April continued the trend of weakening that we’ve seen — that we saw also in March and basically since February. I wanted to know to what degree your guidance for both third quarter and the year embeds continued weakening in US debit. It seems if we look at the restaurant data released by the likes of Darden that the lower-income portion of the US is significantly reducing spend in certain areas. So curious about commentary there. Thanks.

Chris Suh: Yeah. As we talked about on the call, we see quite stable — relatively stable volumes in the US across credit and debit, normalizing for the things that I talked about. And so in addition, as I talked about Reg II, the impact remains stable as well. And so from our perspective, our data indicates stable volume growth in the US.