Craig Conti : Yes, sure. I’ll unpack both of those for you. So I think going forward, into 2023, we expect to — I’m going to start at the portfolio, Faiza, and drill down, okay? We’re expecting about 0.5 point of margin expansion across the portfolio, which is consistent with what we said at Investor Day that we’d expect on an annual basis. So we feel good about that. If I look at how that shakes out, now this is just for the total year, I’ll get to the quarterlies in a second in terms of volume. So for the total year, I expect the CS business to be up about 50 basis points. A lot of that is volume leverage, right? As that business continues to grow, it scales really well. And that’s a high single-digit grower for us next year.
I expect the GS business to be down slightly anywhere from 10 basis points to 30 to 40 basis points year-over-year. And really that doesn’t have anything to do with product mix but they have to do with some investments that we are making in the platform to make sure we can continue to grow at scale both domestically and internationally in the half of decade or so. So about flat, slightly down in GS. And like I just said on T2, I expect that to be up about 1 point. A couple of things there. We continue to win business. And as I mentioned, I expect that mix of business to start favoring SaaS and service to an 80% of the total, which is more than we saw in 2021 and certainly more than we saw in 2022. So that factors out to about 0.5 point for the company.
Now if you’re going to look at trending, I’m going to tell you what the CS trending looks like because I think that will probably make a little bit more sense and I’ll be happy to tell you how that kind of adds up for Verra Mobility. And the reason why I make the distinction is Commercial Services grows through the third quarter, steps back in the fourth quarter, which is 45% of the business but 10-plus percent of the business is T2, which sequentially grows from the first quarter out to the fourth quarter. So it gets a little muddied at the total company level. So let’s go through CS first. I expect the first quarter to look a lot like the fourth quarter. It will be down a little bit. Typically, the first quarter is our lowest revenue quarter of the year but it will be relatively similar to the fourth quarter, I think, of 2022.
Then we’ll grow high single digit to low double digits into the second quarter, as we typically do. We’ll grow again into the third quarter, I would say, low single digits to mid-single digits. And then we’ll step back in the fourth quarter, call it, mid-single digits. And that trajectory that I just gave you is what we’re planning for 2023 and is also spot on to the arithmetic average of the three normalized years in our history. So that’s CS. Did that track?
Faiza Alwy : Yes, that’s very helpful.
Craig Conti : And then if you go and look at Verra in total, right? So we’re going to — the trend is the same, but it’s a little bit muted. So I’ll be down in the first quarter, a few ticks lower than I will be for just CS. Again, it’s the lowest revenue-generating quarter of the year. We’ll grow, I’d say, high single digits in the second quarter. We’ll grow again mid-single digits or so in the third quarter. And then we’ll step back mid-single digits in the fourth quarter, which is that the end of the 3Q summer driving season in CS circulating all the way through to the consolidated company results.
