The good news is we said on our last earnings call, we expected $18 million to $19 million for 2023. How that looks in 2024? There’s still very wide error bars, too, so I wouldn’t necessarily want to go into that at this point in time or draw a line in the sand, given we’re obviously working very hard with the teams to really kind of put a stake in the ground with regard to where we think 2024 will be. Afirma and Decipher continue to be good news stories across the entirety of the portfolio. 2024, we hope will continue to see more of the same. That’s not a quantitative statement, that’s a qualitative statement in terms of we are not fully penetrated in these markets. We are broadening the indication. We are making it easier for physicians to order our tests and our sales team continues to crank.
So I think 2024 will be continued to be headlined by Afirma and Decipher and the rest of it hopefully will be more around the edges as we progress forward with our strategy.
Marc Stapley: Yes. And maybe to add a little bit to that, I agree with 100% with everything Rebecca said the Decipher and Afirma tests, if you think about all of the things that we’re doing, and I ran through in response to an earlier question, what we were doing in Afirma, and you can clearly see what we’ve been doing in Decipher too. None of that’s going to stop. We’re going to continue to generate the evidence. We’re going to continue to pursue guidelines. We’re going to continue to pursue coverage and all of these things that have been so successful for us in the past. So the only real headwind I see for those businesses is the fact that as they grow, the comp is a higher number. So mathematically there’s a headwind. But relative to how these tests continue to grow each quarter, we’re not going to change the working formula that served us really well over the last few years.
Puneet Souda: Got it. And if I can squeeze one more in. Good to see Phil’s addition to the team. I don’t know if he’s there, but just wondering, obviously, prostate and thyroid continue to be major areas, and nasal swab you’re developing, but are there other areas or indication types where you can potentially take the technology with now that you’re going to have access to multiple platforms?
Marc Stapley: Yes, so thanks for that. Yes, it’s certainly is great to have Phil on board with his expertise and experience in not just those, but other areas as well. And as we think about expanding within indications and across indications, let me start with the current indications and our specialty model that is working so well and is highly leverageable. Of course, we’re going to continue to drive into urology applications and more focus on bladder and so on. We’re going to continue to drive our pulmonology franchise with nasal swab as the really important anchor for that. And we’re extremely dedicated to that. And then outside in other indications, of course, as part of our strategic planning process, we always look at those other indications and think about where we can organically or otherwise expand.
Nothing specific on that at this point. We’re very satisfied with the indications that we’re in and how they’re fueling our business, but we’re excited to continue to apply the model that we’ve built in other ways in the future. And that’s why we brought on people like Phil and others to help with that strategy. So I’m excited to continue those conversations.
Puneet Souda: Okay. Helpful. Thanks, guys.
Marc Stapley: Thanks.
Operator: Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Sung Ji Nam with Scotiabank. Your line is now open.
Sung Ji Nam: Hi. Thanks for taking the questions and congrats on the quarter. Maybe starting out with the IVD strategy. Just kind of curious if you might be able to comment on why you’re putting the Decipher Prostate on a qPCR versus next-gen sequencing versus the NextSeq. Just given that, I think Decipher, if I’m remembering correctly, it’s a whole transcriptome analysis. And then also if there’s a specific qPCR platform you have in mind or could this be utilized across multiple qPCR systems?
Marc Stapley: Yes, great question and thanks for that. So Decipher is a whole transcriptome test, as is a firmware in the U.S. in our CLIA lab environment. And that’s what enables us to launch something like GRID. But just a reminder that as we plan to launch IVDs, including any platform, whether it be nCounter, PCR or NGS, we’re launching more of a targeted test. So Decipher 22 genes fits beautifully on qPCR. There is a significant installed base for PCR, and as we look at the installed base, the economics, we listen to customers and so on, we’ve landed on qPCR as the appropriate platform for that. By the way, it was also going to be a 22 gene test on the nCounter. So that doesn’t change at all. That doesn’t mean in the future, as the economics permit, that we wouldn’t launch it also on NGS.
We could, and that is an option for us. Other tests, for example, nasal swab, which look at a lot more targets, make a lot more sense on next-gen sequencing same with Prosigna, which as you know, is essentially PAM50. So again, that is the approach. It enables us to look at the right platform, the best platform to optimize for the test. And it could of course be multiple platforms. So hopefully that answers that question. On your second part, with respect to a PCR provider, there’s multiple options. And of course you can imagine we’re looking at them all and we could support multiple options with the test with very little incremental effort in terms of R&D work. So that may ultimately be where we go. It’s more of an open platform. So it’s not following the same formula as the supply agreement does with Illumina.
Sung Ji Nam: Got it. That’s super helpful. And then just on Afirma. Great to hear that you’re taking market share there still, just kind of curious, are you referring to – are you actually taking share away from your competitors? And kind of could you maybe talk about the key drivers of that, why they might be switching to Afirma? And also kind of, what’s your estimate in terms of your current market share is? Thank you.
Marc Stapley: Yes, it’s a great question. It’s difficult to pass these things, as you can imagine. But I think actually, and this is the case for, I believe, Decipher as well as Afirma. If you look at the overall market share – market penetration that we’re clearly driving more market penetration. In other words, patients getting tests that wouldn’t otherwise have got a test, physicians using the products that otherwise would not have used ours or anyone else’s product. So that’s the first. Within our existing customers, we also see that the utilization is increasing. So that’s the second. And then the third area of taking share from other tests that’s more anecdotal than anything else. But as we look at the respective growth rates, I think that you can clearly get to that as a conclusion in some respects.
