Ventas, Inc. (NYSE:VTR) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Justin Hutchens : Yes. So great points or observations. I’ll start with the clinical side. The clinical side, I would just describe as kind of normal. It’s certainly wasn’t representative of the headlines that they were around flu. It’s very normal kind of typical seasonality in both December and so far in January. We have had financial move-outs, which is also typical around this time because I mentioned over half of our residents received their in-house rent increases. And we’ve also mentioned they’re relatively high this year as well. So that’s contributing to the move-out trend and which is normal. That’s kind of the point I was trying to make, and we’re — in that regard, we’re kind of back to normal trends. And then from a move-in expectation standpoint and net move-in expectation standpoint, we expect those to continue to improve due to the demand at the doorstep.

Operator: Your next question will come from the line of Tao Qiu with Stifel.

Tao Qiu : So Justin, the SHOP guidance assumes a 6% RevPOR growth, which is kind of slowly — slightly lower than the higher single digit and even 10% in-place rate increase that some senior housing operators have been talking about. So could you talk — could you comment on the expectation on the moving rates in the current promotional activities? Are you still expecting the positive re-leasing spreads for 2023? And as a quick follow-up, on the Colony loan, how much of the $50 million annualized interest income did you take off the guidance?

Justin Hutchens : How about I’ll start with the pricing question? There’s a page in the deck for those that have it, Page 20, that addresses this. First, the contributors to RevPOR, strong in-house rent increases running around 10%; care pricing, 11%; and then street rates have increased as well. So really, everything is going up in that regards. One thing about care, it’s adjustable throughout the year, represents about 15% of our RevPOR. And then there’s just normal attrition, typical attrition. And so in other words, not every resident is receiving the full benefit of these increases throughout the whole year. So that’s why you’re seeing a 6% RevPOR rather than around 10%, which the numbers above might indicate.

Debra A. Cafaro : And then on Colony, I would say there’s a range of outcomes basically bracketing the FFO contribution in 2022.

Operator: Your next question will come from the line of John Pawlowski with Green Street.

John Pawlowski : I just had a follow-up question on the mezzanine loan. Can you remind me what loan-to-value range your mezz tranche set out in the capital stack when you originated the loan? And then can you give us a sense for what magnitude of NOI increases are needed at these properties to fully service the debt? Because I believe the interest rate is LIBOR plus 640 bps and that’s really, really painful for cash flows. And so just any thoughts on how you got comfortable about not taking a larger impairment would be helpful.

Debra A. Cafaro : Sure. I mean, I think again, as we said, there’s a post-COVID impact on some of the assets and rates have increased. The full loan stack is really closer to , 330-ish, if you will, in the senior and the junior. And so the original underwriting was very conventional, kind of 75%, 80% LTV. And so it’s just a timing mismatch, if you will. And the borrower, we believe, is taking actions on the portfolio side. And the rates are the rates, and so we value the collateral in making our decision at the 12/31 balance sheet and made reasonable, consistent assumptions about valuation.

John Pawlowski : On the timing mismatch. If rates stay where they are, when will NOI operating income start to fully cover the loans?

Debra A. Cafaro : Well, it’s being paid now so it’s covering the loan. So interest is being paid.

Operator: Our final question will come from the line of Dave Rodgers with Baird.