Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript December 7, 2023

Vail Resorts, Inc. misses on earnings expectations. Reported EPS is $ EPS, expectations were $-4.54.

Operator: Good afternoon, and welcome to the Vail Resorts’ Fiscal First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. Currently, all callers have been placed in a listen-only mode, and following management prepare remarks, the call will be opened up for your questions. [Operator Instructions] I will now like to turn the call over to Kirsten Lynch, Chief Executive Officer of Vail Resorts. You may begin.

Kirsten Lynch: Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to our fiscal 2024 first quarter earnings conference call. Joining me on the call this afternoon is Angela Korch, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, let me remind you that some information provided during this call may include forward-looking statements that are based on certain assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, as described in our SEC filings, and actual future results may vary materially. Forward-looking statements in our press release issued this afternoon, along with our remarks on this call are made as of today, December 7, 2023, and we undertake no duty to update them as actual events unfold. Today’s remarks also include certain non-GAAP financial measures.

Reconciliation of these measures are provided in the tables included with our press release, which along with our quarterly report on Form 10-Q, were filed this afternoon with the SEC and are also available on the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vailresorts.com. With that said, let’s turn to our fiscal 2024 first quarter results. We are pleased with our results for the quarter, which exceeded our expectations due to the timing of expenses primarily related to season ramp-up activities. As we expected, resort-reported EBITDA declined compared to the prior-year period, primarily driven by cost inflation, $14 million lower EBITDA from our Australian resorts due to normalized results following record demand and favorable conditions in the prior fiscal year as well as from current year weather-related challenges that impacted terrain, $4 million lower EBITDA from our North America summer operations due to lower demand for summer mountain travel and weather-related challenges, and $4 million negative impact from foreign exchange rates.

Turning now to our 2023/2024 North American season pass sales and early season indicators. We are pleased with the results of our season pass sales, which continue to demonstrate the compelling value proposition of our pass products, our network of mountain resorts, the strong guest experience created at each mountain resort, and our commitment to continually invest in the guest experience. Pass product sales for the North American ski season increased approximately 4% in units and approximately 11% in sales dollars through December 4, 2023 as compared to the period in the prior year through December 5, 2022. Pass product sales are adjusted to eliminate the impact of foreign currency by applying an exchange rate of $0.74 between the Canadian dollar and the U.S. dollar in both periods for Whistler Blackcomb pass sales.

We expect to have approximately 2.4 million guests committed to our 41 North American, Australian, and European resorts in advance of the season in non-refundable advanced commitment products this year, which are expected to generate over $900 million of revenue and over 73% of all skier visits, excluding complimentary visits. The results of our North American pass sales demonstrate strong loyalty among our pass holders with particularly strong pass sales growth from renewing pass holders and also from guests in our database who previously purchased passes but did not buy a pass in the previous season. The company successfully grew units across destination, international, and local geographies with the largest unit growth in destination markets including in the Northeast.

The business also achieved growth in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, which after challenging conditions last season, highlights the stability of our advance commitment program, loyalty of our guests, and significant opportunity to drive pass penetration in the East. Pass sales grew across all major product segments — pass product segments with the strongest product growth in regional pass products and Epic Day products as lower frequency guests and local Northeast guests continue to be attracted by the strong value proposition of these products. The pass unit growth rate moderated relative to our September 2023 growth rate as we successfully moved purchasers earlier in the selling cycle, including guests who purchased our newer product offerings in the prior-year period.

Pass sales dollars benefited from the 8% price increase relative to the 2022/2023 season, and new pass holders coming into the program in higher-priced products relative to the sales results in the prior-year period, partially offset by the mix impact from the growth of regional and Epic Day Pass products. Heading into the 2023/2024 North American and European ski season, our significant base of committed guests, which has approximately doubled over the past four years, provides meaningful stability for our company, especially during economic uncertainty. Our Rockies resorts and Whistler Blackcomb have opened with typical conditions for this time of year, and Andermatt-Sedrun has had particularly strong conditions to start the season. Tahoe’s early season has been more challenging with limited snowfall and warm temperatures to date, and our resorts in the East have experienced typical seasonal variability for this point in the season.

Lodging booking trends for the upcoming season are generally consistent with the prior-year levels, though it is important to note that our lodging bookings represent a small portion of the overall lodging inventory around our resorts. While our mountain resorts are continuing to hire for the winter season, we are on track with our staffing plans and encouraged by the strong return rate of employees from the prior season. We are pleased to welcome guests to all of our resorts as the 2023/2024 North American and European ski seasons kick off with significant investments in the guest experience. At Keystone, this includes the transformational lift-served terrain expansion project in Bergman Bowl, increasing lift-served terrain by 555 acres with the addition of a new six-person high speed lift.

At Breckenridge, this includes the upgrades to the Peak 8 base area, enhancing the beginner and children’s experience and increasing uphill capacity from this popular base area, including a new four-person high speed 5-Chair to replace the existing two-person fixed-grip lift, new teaching terrain, and a transport carpet from the base, to make the beginner experience more accessible. At Whistler Blackcomb, this includes the replacement of the four-person high speed Fitzsimmons lift with a new eight-person high speed lift. At Stevens Pass, this includes replacing the two-person fixed-grip Kehr’s Chair lift with a new four-person lift, which is designed to improve out-of-base capacity and guest experience. At Attitash, this includes the replacement of the three-person fixed-grip Summit Triple lift with a new four-person high speed lift to increase uphill capacity and reduce guests’ time on the longest lift at the resort.

The company is also piloting My Epic Gear at Vail, Beaver Creek, Breckenridge, and Keystone for a limited number of pass holders during the 2023/2024 North American ski season, which will introduce a new gear membership program that provides the best benefits of gear ownership but with more choice, lower cost, and no hassle. My Epic Gear provides its members with the ability to choose the gear they want, for the full season or for the day, with a select — from a selection of the most popular and latest ski and snowboard models, and have it delivered to them when and where they want it, including slopeside pick up and drop off every day. In addition to offering the best skis and snowboards, My Epic Gear will also offer name brand, high-quality ski and snowboard boots with customized insoles and boot fit scanning technology.

The entire My Epic Gear membership, from gear selection to boot fit to personalized recommendations to delivery, will be at the members’ fingertips through the new My Epic app. My Epic Gear is expected to officially launch for the 2024/2025 winter season at Vail, Beaver Creek, Breckenridge, Keystone, Whistler Blackcomb, Park City, Crested Butte, Heavenly, Northstar, Stowe, Okemo, and Mount Snow, and further expansions are expected in future years. The company is also introducing new technology for the 2023/2024 ski season at its U.S. resorts that will allow guests to store their pass product or lift ticket directly on their phone and scan at lifts hands-free, eliminating the need for carrying plastic cards, visiting the ticket window or waiting to receive a pass or lift ticket in the mail.

Once loaded on their phones, guests can store their phone in their pocket, and get scanned hands free in the lift line using Bluetooth Low Energy technology, which is designed for low energy usage to minimize the impact on a phone’s battery life. In [Technical Difficulty] enhancement of the guest experience, this technology will also ultimately reduce waste of [Technical Difficulty] as a part of the company’s sustainability efforts and [Technical Difficulty] the company will provide plastic cards for passes and lift tickets to all guests, and in future years plastic cards will be available to any guests who [Technical Difficulty] use their phone to store their pass product or lift ticket. We are also excited to announce the launch of our new My Epic app, which includes Mobile Pass and Mobile Lift Tickets, interactive trail maps, real-time and predictive lift line wait times, personalized stats, My Epic Gear, and other relevant information to support the guest experience.

The company is also investing in network-wide scalable technology that will enhance our analytics, e-commerce and guest engagement tools to improve our ability to target our guest outreach, personalize messages and improve conversion. Now I would like to turn the call over to Angela to further discuss our financial results, our fiscal 2024 outlook, and the Crans-Montana acquisition announcement.

Angela Korch: Thanks, Kirsten, and good afternoon, everyone. As Kirsten mentioned, we are pleased with our first quarter performance, which exceeded our expectations due to the timing of expenses, primarily related to season ramp-up activities. Net loss attributable to Vail Resorts was $175.5 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2024 compared to a net loss attributable to Vail Resorts of $137 million in the prior year. Resort reported EBITDA was a loss of $139.8 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2024 compared to resort EBITDA loss of $96.5 million in the prior year. Our balance sheet remains strong and the business continues to generate robust cash flow. Our total cash and revolver availability as of October 31, 2023 was approximately $1.4 billion, with $729 million of cash on hand and $634 million of combined revolver availability across our credit agreements.

As of October 31, 2023, our net debt was 2.6 times trailing 12-months total reported EBITDA. The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $2.06 per share of Vail Resorts common stock that will be payable on January 9, 2024 to shareholders of record as of December 26, 2023. During the quarter, the company repurchased approximately 0.2 million shares of common stock at an average price of approximately $211 for a total of $50 million. We remain committed to returning capital to shareholders and intend to maintain an opportunistic approach to future share repurchases. We will continue to be disciplined stewards of our capital and remain committed to prioritizing investments in our guests and employee experience, high return capital projects, strategic acquisitions, and returning capital to our shareholders through our quarterly dividend and share repurchase program.

Moving now to fiscal 2024 outlook, given the indicators for the upcoming season, we are reaffirming our fiscal 2024 net income attributable to Vail Resorts guidance of $316 million to $394 million and resort reported EBITDA guidance of $912 million to $968 million that was included in our September earnings release based on the assumptions incorporated at that time, including foreign currency exchange rates, a continuation of the current economic environment and normal weather conditions. Our fiscal 2024 guidance excludes the impact associated with Crans-Montana, which remains subject to closing. Heading into the 2023/2024 North American and European ski season, we are encouraged that staffing levels are on track to deliver an outstanding guest experience and the strength of our pass sales, though it is important to note that our growth in pass sales is expected to be partially offset by reduced lift ticket sales as we continue to successfully convert guests from lift tickets to pass products.

In addition, there continues to be uncertainty around the economic outlook and the impact that may have on travel and consumer behavior as we head into our primary operating season. We are pleased to share our announcement last week that we entered into an agreement to acquire majority stake in Crans-Montana Mountain Resort in Switzerland, the company’s second ski resort in Europe. Crans-Montana is an iconic ski destination in the heart of the Swiss Alps, with a unique heritage, incredible terrain, passionate team, and a community dedicated to the success of the region. This acquisition aligns to the company’s growth strategy of expanding its resort network in Europe, creating even more value for our pass holders and guests around the world.

Much like Andermatt-Sedrun, the company believes Crans-Montana has a unique opportunity for future growth. Upon the closing of the acquisition, the company will acquire an 84% ownership stake in the entity that controls and operates all the resort’s lifts and supporting mountain operations, an 80% ownership stake in SportLife, which operates one of the ski schools located at the resort, and 100% of 11 restaurants located on and around the mountain. Subject to closing adjustments, the enterprise value of the resort operations is expected to be CHF118.5 million, including approximately CHF7 million of debt that will remain in place. The company expects to fund the purchase price for the acquired ownership interest of the resort operations through cash on hand.

Vail Resorts anticipates that the resort will generate approximately CHF5 million of EBITDA in its first — or in its fiscal year ending July 31, 2025, the first full year of operations, following the expected closing later in fiscal 2024. Vail Resorts anticipates EBITDA growth over time from the inclusion of the resort on the Epic Pass products and investments in the guest experience. Subject to the timing of capital project approvals and completion, Vail Resorts is planning to invest approximately CHF30 million over the next five years in one-time capital spending to elevate the guest experience, and the resort is expected to generate over CHF15 million of annual EBITDA following these investments and inclusion on the Epic Pass. This initial phase of growth of the resort is expected to be primarily driven by operating and marketing initiatives along with capital investments focused on maximizing gastronomy efficiencies and improving and expanding snowmaking capabilities.

After closing the transaction, normal annual maintenance capital expenditures for Crans-Montana are expected to be approximately CHF3 million. The transaction is expected to close during the 2023/2024 ski and ride season, subject to certain third-party consents. Operations at Crans-Montana for the 2023/2024 winter season will continue in the ordinary course of business. Vail Resorts plans to include access to Crans-Montana on select Epic Pass products for the 2024/2025 ski and ride season. The resort will not be included on the Epic Pass for any remaining part of the 2023/2024 season after the deal closes. Now, I’ll turn the call back over to Kirsten.

Kirsten Lynch: Thank you, Angela. We are pleased to announce additional details of our calendar year 2024 capital plan, which support the company’s strategies to grow the subscription model, unlock ancillary growth, drive resource efficiency, and further differentiate the guest experience. We expect our capital plan for calendar year 2024 to be approximately $189 million to $194 million, excluding $13 million of incremental capital investments in premium fleet and fulfillment infrastructure to support the official launch of My Epic Gear for the 2024/2025 winter season, $11 million of growth capital investments at Andermatt-Sedrun and $1 million of reimbursable capital. Including My Epic Gear premium fleet and fulfillment infrastructure capital and one-time investments, our total capital plan for calendar year 2024 is expected to be approximately $214 million to $219 million.

This excludes any capital expenditures associated with the Crans-Montana acquisition, which remains subject to closing. As announced in September, at Whistler Blackcomb, the company plans to replace the four-person high speed Jersey Cream lift with a new six-person high speed lift. This lift is expected to provide a meaningful increase in uphill capacity and better distribute guests at a central part of the resort. At Hunter Mountain, we plan to replace the four-person fixed-grip Broadway lift with a new six-person high speed lift and plan to relocate the existing Broadway lift to replace the two-person fixed-grip E lift, providing a meaningful increase in uphill capacity and improved access to terrain that is key to the progressive learning experience for our guests.

At Park City, we are in the planning process to support the replacement of the Sunrise lift with a new 10-person gondola in partnership with the Canyons Village Management Association in calendar year 2025, which will provide improved access and enhanced guest experience for existing and future developments within Canyons Village. These projects remain subject to approvals. In addition to the projects announced in September, at Park City and Hunter Mountain, beyond the planned lift investments, we plan to enhance snowmaking systems to improve the experience for key terrain, increase early season terrain consistency, and improve the efficiency through the installation of automated and energy-efficient snowguns. We also plan to further support the company’s Commitment to Zero by investing in waste reduction projects across our resorts to achieve the goal of zero waste to landfill by 2030.

At Afton Alps, we plan to install a 10-lane tubing experience and renovate the existing Alpine Building to create a 200 seat restaurant to further enhance the guest experience. At Seven Springs, we plan to add 390 new parking spaces to increase capacity for peak demand periods. At Perisher, in advance of the 2025 winter season in Australia, we plan to replace the Mt Perisher Double and Triple Chairs with a new six-person high speed lift, with capital spending commencing in calendar year 2024 and continuing into calendar year 2025. These projects remain subject to approvals. In addition, we are continuing to invest in innovative technology to enhance the guest experience. In the coming year, we are investing in new functionality for the My Epic App to better communicate with and personalize the experience for our guests.

Across our resorts, we plan to pilot new technologies at select restaurants to make it both easier and faster for guests to dine at our resorts. In addition, in order to support the launch of My Epic Gear, we plan to invest in logistics and technology infrastructure to help deliver a transformational improvement to the gear rental experience for our guests. The company is planning to launch My Epic Gear for the 2024/2025 winter season at 12 destination and regional resorts across North America, including kids gear, and we will be limiting membership to 60,000 to 80,000 members. To support the initial year of this new business, in calendar year 2024, the company plans to invest $13 million beyond our typical annual capital plan in incremental premium gear fleet and fulfillment infrastructure to support the anticipated growth of this business.

We plan to provide additional updates on My Epic Gear and the on-going capital needs of the business after the year one launch. At Andermatt-Sedrun, we are pleased to announce plans to invest approximately $11 million in high-impact growth capital projects as part of a multi-year strategic growth investment plan to enhance the guest experience on the mountain, which will be funded by the CHF110 million of capital that was invested as part of the purchase of our majority stake in Andermatt-Sedrun. As part of the calendar year 2024 investments, we are planning to upgrade and replace snowmaking infrastructure at the Sedrun-Milez area on the eastern side of the resort to enhance the guest experience for key beginner and intermediate terrain and significantly improve energy efficiency.

In addition, we plan to invest in the on-mountain dining experience with improvements to the Milez and Natschen restaurants. These investments are expected to be completed ahead of the 2024/2025 European ski season and remain subject to regulatory approvals. In 2017, Vail Resorts announced an ambitious plan to take action to address our direct impact on the environment with a commitment to achieve zero net operating footprint by 2030, including zero net emissions, zero waste to landfill, and zero net operating impact on forests and habitat. We continue to be on track to achieve a zero net operating footprint by 2030. In fiscal 2023, we achieved 100% renewable electricity across North American operations for the second year in a row, and we achieved our 15% energy efficiency goal early, driven by over $10 million in energy-savings investments since fiscal 2018.

Additionally, we achieved a 36% overall reduction in waste to landfill, diverting nearly 12 million pounds of waste from landfills. With this progress, the company is ahead of schedule to meet its emissions goals, and is on track to reach zero waste to landfill and zero net operating impact on forests and habitats to achieve a zero net operating footprint by 2030. In addition to protecting the environment, we continue to expand our youth access program and promote diversity, equity and inclusion. During the 2022/2023 winter season, Vail Resorts hosted more than 11,000 youth through our multi-day Epic for Everyone youth access program, which aims to remove barriers to entry and create a more inclusive sport by providing gear, lessons, mentorship, and access for youth around our resorts.

We remain dedicated to doing our part as responsible stewards of the great outdoors and the future of the ski industry, and committed partners to our communities. More information about our Commitment to Zero and efforts towards sustainability can be found at EpicPromise.com, and we expect our fiscal 2023 progress report to be released in the coming weeks. In closing, I would like to thank all of our team members, especially our frontline teams across all of our mountain resorts for their passion, hard work, and commitment to creating an experience of a lifetime for our guests. The guest experience that our employees create is our mission as a company and is core to our success. And I would like to extend a special welcome to the team members at Crans-Montana in Switzerland.

We all look forward to welcoming skiers and snowboarders to our mountain resorts this winter season. At this time, Angela and I will be happy to answer any of your questions. Operator, we are now ready for questions.

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Q&A Session

Operator: Yes, ma’am. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Shaun Kelley, Bank of America.

Shaun Kelley: Hi, good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Kirsten or Angela, if I can start, I mean, obviously, very encouraging that you were able to maintain double-digit dollar growth on the pass side. But just kind of wondering on the composition in terms of how this played out. And I know you did give a lot of color here. But I guess on the one side, you told us that the Epic Day Pass in the Northeast regional area were pretty strong. And on the other side, I think those are slightly lower-value products that would probably drag down that spread a little bit. So, if you just — can you just talk a little bit about that mix and how that evolved that you can maintain such a widespread between dollars and units?

Kirsten Lynch: Yes. We are very pleased with the price pass-through, Shaun, in part driven by, we took an 8% price increase. We did see that renewals were very strong this year, and we were able to grow across all major product segments, including Epic and Epic Local. We also saw that our net migration among renewing pass holders improved versus the prior year. And I think importantly, new pass holders coming into the program came in at higher-priced products relative to the prior year. And as a reminder, last year, we had launched a new product that drove significant acquisition of new pass holders late in the selling cycle last year, which was the version of our Epic Day Pass that was targeted towards more local geographies.

Shaun Kelley: Got it. Okay. That last point, I think, is probably the most helpful. And then look, I think the other big area where we’re getting a handful of questions is on just the terrain and snow package as you kind of — we tilt into the actual season. So again, give us some condition updates, but maybe give us a sense of when is kind of the point of no return in terms of sort of season loss and — season launch and conditions, meaning when do we really need to have a pretty good terrain opening set for financial results as we get into — closer to the holidays here?

Kirsten Lynch: I mean, well, obviously, the Christmas holiday time period is really important for our guests and important for our performance. I mean right now, at this point in time, conditions vary across the geographies. I think in the Rockies, currently, we’re seeing fairly typical for this time of year, and there’s more snow in the forecast, which is encouraging. Whistler Blackcomb is experiencing what I would call typical variability for this early season time period. Andermatt-Sedrun is off to a very strong start with strong early snowfall. And last year, that was quite a challenge. Tahoe is probably the most challenging right now. They’ve had a slower start with limited snowfall, the warm temps making it hard for us to make snow.

And then the East right now, I’d say, probably what we would call it’s typically variable and we’re seeing that variability and the differences. So yes, we’re in a situation where it varies pretty significantly geography to geography and the season has just begun ahead of us, but the hope would be that we’re in a good spot as we head into the peak sort of Christmas time period.

Shaun Kelley: Very encouraging. Thank you very much.

Kirsten Lynch: Thanks, Shaun.

Operator: Our next question comes from Laurent Vasilescu, BNP Paribas.

Laurent Vasilescu: Good afternoon. Thank you very much for taking my question. Last quarter, there was a lot of questions regarding the anticipated $46 million impact to 1Q EBITDA. I appreciate that you parsed it out in buckets in the press release and on the prepared remarks, but they add up to $29 million per rough math. Just curious to know if — is that the number that actually materialize? Or are there other parts that were too small to call out would be about $15 million in total? And then, as we think about 2Q, 3Q, are there any other one-time EBITDA impact that we should consider?

Angela Korch: Thanks, Laurent. This is Angela. Yeah, we called out certain pieces of the Q1 variance. And I think the key part in there is the cost inflation piece, which we didn’t put the number in but really is the balance of that variance that you’re walking. So, there’s a $7 million wage investment as part of that cost inflation. And in total, that remaining $21 million variance relates to cost inflation. Also like typical, we always invest ahead of the season, right? And so that’s the part that also we noted in-line with our expectations for the full season. There was some timing within their that will move into Q2 and Q3. And that really is typical as we invest ahead of the core winter season that some of those things move around between Q1 and Q2.

Laurent Vasilescu: Very helpful, Angela. And then I wanted to follow up on Crans-Montana. In the press release last week, you expect for the resort to drive about $5 million of EBITDA in fiscal year ’25 and eventually over five years to get to $15 million of EBITDA. What’s driving that? Is that [increase in visitations] (ph)? Or are there higher efficiencies in the business that you think you can execute on? And I know the ownership of Andermatt is early innings, but are there any learnings that you could apply to Crans-Montana from Andermatt?

Kirsten Lynch: Thanks for the questions. We are very excited about Crans-Montana in Switzerland. This is a top-tier brand resort in Europe with expansive terrain, a large bed base, strong base areas with lodging, dining, retail experience. When we think about the growth opportunity, because of the strength of this brand and the ski resort, we believe part of it is returning it to its full potential, and that’s investing in the guest experience and bringing our operations and marketing expertise and that there’s future growth potential through Epic Pass and the network effect by being a part of our company. So that is really what’s driving what we view as to be the growth potential. We’ve had our first year at Andermatt-Sedrun.

I would say that was a — we’re very pleased with our first year of operations there and we learned a lot, I’d say, primarily about operations and operating in the resort. Our first year, we did have some unique challenges related to the conditions as well as some pressures regarding — in Europe regarding energy costs. We learned about operating there, and we are really excited about the transformational capital plan that we have for Andermatt-Sedrun. It’s a really special and unique ski resort that has a lot of growth potential, and we feel the same way about Crans-Montana.