US Foods Holding Corp. (NYSE:USFD) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Edward Kelly: Great. Thank you.

David Flitman: Thanks, Ed.

Operator: We’ll take our next question from Jeffrey Bernstein with Barclays.

Jeffrey Bernstein: Great. Thank you very much. Two questions. The first one, David, I think we’ve confirmed the industry data and the restaurant commentary showed that there was a slowdown to close maybe this summer, maybe August, September. And I think you confirmed that the chains foot traffic slowed in the third quarter. The question we’ve been getting a lot is just why? I think a lot of people immediately jump on the idea that the headwinds on the consumer are finally taking hold. But then many of our restaurants have actually said less of consumer concerns and more does a return to normal historical seasonality in terms of month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter. In fact, some have actually said the industries recovered somewhat in October.

So I’m just wondering your thoughts. One, are you surprised that maybe you’re not seeing a similar uptick in October? And do you think there’s any credence to the thesis of a return to seasonality. Just wondering your thoughts on whether or not we should be concerned of a broader consumer slowdown or whether the seasonality does hold some water? And then I have a follow-up.

David Flitman: Yes, I think that probably is something to the seasonality piece, although we don’t spend a lot of time thinking about that, Jeff, because relative to our model and the things that we’re winning in around – we actually telling our team to focus on the things we can control and whether there’s a broader slowdown in the market. There’s still a lot of cases out there for us to go get. People are still going out to eat. It’s going to ebb and flow just like it always has. It’s been a difficult time to get a handle on things with the rebound since COVID and restaurants that have gone offline and then coming back. It’s really – it’s been a little bit helter-skelter here, as you know, for the last year or so. But regardless of all of that, I think what I’m seeing and what I said earlier is stability.

I think that’s the key right now is stability and our ability to lean in where we want to in those three target customer types to continue to support our customers to share.

Jeffrey Bernstein: And on that note, it seems like you’ve got strong momentum across your business lines. I’m just wondering you kind of blessed the – at or near $1.7 billion for next year. But what’s your greatest concern as we look to 2024 I’m assuming maybe it’s more macro versus your internal plans, but what are you looking at to get a gauge for your outlook for 2024? What’s the biggest concern you have or among your team?

David Flitman: I think from a macro standpoint, that would probably be it, but it would have to be a major significant macro thing to give me a lot of concern. I’ve got a lot of confidence and our ability to hit that target for next year, given the momentum that we have and what I can see coming in the future in terms of continued share gains, productivity work that we have underway in our ability to control that outcome. So yes, I guess I’d have to point to a macro, but it would have to be more than just a minor slowdown.

Jeffrey Bernstein: Got it. And then just lastly, the M&A, just a follow-up. It seems like the discussions maybe are a little bit more productive. You’ve completed a couple of them. I know peers are talking a little bit more about it. Do you think both sides are coming to more reasonable terms in terms of valuation? And how do you think about it in terms of your opportunity? Is it more of a geographic opportunity? Or is it just a particular line of business that you’d be interested in focusing on? Just trying to get your sense?

David Flitman: Yes. Ours have been more geographic focused in both cases, both with Renzi and Saladino’s now where we’re serving those markets in some capacity, but not very efficiently. So there’s still ample opportunity for that across our network to strengthen our position in local markets. There may be something that we do product portfolio-wise, that’s opportunistic. I don’t see any major gaps in it. But if the right thing comes along at the right time, we’ll certainly take a look at it. But I think you can think about it in a similar fashion than what you’ve seen us do with the two that we’ve talked about so far this year. And in terms of valuations, what you heard me say is that Saladino’s was extremely reasonable, and a fraction of what we paid and elsewhere.

So we’re going to do the things that make sense because we don’t have to do M&A. We really don’t. So it’s going to be thoughtful. It’s going to be the right one for us to solve a problem for us. And at valuations that make sense for us every time.

Jeffrey Bernstein: Thank you.

David Flitman: Thank you.

Operator: We’ll take our next question from Jake Bartlett with Truist Securities.

Jake Bartlett: Great. Thanks for taking the question. Mine was on – it pertains to you, but as well as your larger competitors. You’re all increasing your sales forces pretty aggressively. And I guess I’m wondering, it seems like there’s a disconnect, the overall market growth, macro pressures are there, it doesn’t seem like the market’s gotten much bigger than expected. So how should we interpret the kind of the wide scale increase in the sales force given the macro background that doesn’t seem to be better than expected?

David Flitman: Yes, I think you can interpret at least – I can only speak for us and how we’re thinking about it, Jake, but I think it speaks to the underlying opportunity that we see in terms of growth. And look, as we continue to take share, we’re going to grow somewhat with the market. That’s going to be very low-single digits. We’re going to continue to penetrate the market and take share, and that’s going to drive an incremental growth in that low to single-digit – low to mid-single-digit headcount increase, we’ll add another incremental growth on top of that. And so that’s the way we’re thinking about the algorithm. Given the relatively fractured nature of this market and this industry, there’s still ample opportunity for us to take share regardless of the macro.

Dirk Locascio: I think, Jake the other thing, keep in mind, if we’re growing independent at 6% on a regular basis as we have for the last number of quarters, you do want us to be adding sellers because that’s also – we’re getting good leverage as we’re adding sellers by growing cases faster than that, but at the same time, making sure that we’re reinvesting and reinvesting, especially in those areas where we’re growing faster.