Unum Group (NYSE:UNM) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Jimmy Bhullar: Okay. And then just on the labor market. Obviously, it’s been a big deal win for results across a number of your product lines. There have been like more signs of layoffs or unemployment picking up a little bit. And I realize that is not a big part of your business mix, but are you seeing €“ should we assume that the tailwind from the labor market has, or the benefit on your results has already peaked? Or are you still viewing it as a tailwind into 2023?

Rick McKenney: Yes. Jimmy, it’s Rick. I think you have to step back and think about it holistically in terms of what the forecast looks like. If you look at what we’ve seen in the news and the particular layoffs, I don’t think I’d isolate any of those things. You think about the broader base of employees that we have at ranges in all sizes from the very small case with 10 employees all the way up to the very large case. And that’s what you’re hearing about more are some of the large cases. And so we haven’t felt that impact today, but we’re also very thoughtful about what may be coming over the horizon. And when you think about the talk certainly of recession and what that looks like to our overall premium growth, we have benefited over the last €“ certainly, over the last 12 months, last 18 months from an increasing amount in the labor markets from both wages as well as from good employment, so that may wane.

But I’ll take you back to; we are fundamentally an underwriting business. And so although you’ll see that on the margins, we still feel very good about our opportunities to grow and work through that and maintain good premium levels, good persistency, and so we €“ some of our cognizant of, but nothing that we pay too much attention to in any daily type of announcement that we see.

Jimmy Bhullar: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. The next question today comes from the line of Tom Gallagher from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Tom Gallagher: Good morning. The first question I have was on group life. The higher average claim size, would you say that’s €“ is that at all a function of wage inflation, meaning your insurance face amount of coverage per life has gone up? Or is it actually coming in worse if you do that kind of analysis to look at whatever the natural inflationary coverage you have in that block looks like?

Steve Zabel: Yes, Tom, it’s Steve. I can take that one. I wouldn’t attribute it to inflation necessarily. I would just attribute it to normal volatility in the average size. We tend to see some volatility there. And when you think about how those products are structured, we charge for higher salaries because a lot of those benefits are indexed to salaries themselves. And so we’re getting paid for it. So it shouldn’t really affect our loss ratio necessarily. So I just attribute to normal volatility, and the loss ratio this period was up around 78%. If you take out the impact of that, we think something in the mid-70s is probably more realistic. And then, I guess, pandemic endemic wears off, hopefully, over time, we do ultimately think that, that loss ratio would be down more in the low-70s, but it will take probably a bit longer to do that.

I mentioned in my remarks we still had $10 million of life claims in Group Life, I think just under 200 deaths in that block. So that is still attributing to our performance, but hopefully that will wane over time.

Tom Gallagher: Got you. And then in international, I just want to make sure I understand the way this is likely to play out. There was a big spike in earnings related to inflation I heard those comments. Did you say you expected it to revert back to £20 in Q1? Or would you expect that inflation benefit to last a bit longer into early 2023?

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