United States Cellular Corporation (NYSE:USM) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

But the geographical mix would indicate that we’re taking from cable, and we’re primarily — and in many cases, we’re even taking where cable has upgraded their plan. And so that’s also what gives me a lot of optimism about the mid band fixed wireless as we roll out that 300 meg product. It isn’t purely just a speed game. There’s a simplicity of installation. There’s a positive customer experience associated with this product. Our churn continues to go down on the product. We continue to see really good churn performance. And so it isn’t just a rural oriented product as, frankly, I had initially assumed it might be. We’re seeing really good performance even in places where cable is quite active. The one place I can tell you where we have not seen significant progress is places where you’ve got fiber, right?

So if you’ve got a dense fiber build the economics of the product, it’s pretty difficult to compete against the physics that fiber provides. We see a really robust blend. Let me switch to the cable, your question about cable. What’s different? Really two things are different for us. The first is you’ve seen just a steady expansion of their footprint. So early on, UScellular was a bit insulated from cable competition because they started in large cities. And so our competitors saw a larger competitive impact from cable than we did. I think a few quarters ago, I mentioned that we saw cable competition in 50% of our footprint. As of today, it’s 60% of our footprint. And so we’ve simply seen an expansion of that cable competition. The other dynamic that I expect to see that I would just highlight is, up until now, we’ve had larger — the large cable companies providing an MVNO and providing that wireless service.

And I expect that we’ll see smaller cable players do that. I expect to see smaller cable players roll out of wireless service, and that will create a little bit of increased competition. And the final dynamic that I think is kind of interesting is that we’re seeing a larger amount of the cable players start to subsidize devices. I think that’s going to be a really interesting dynamic to track because in the early days, it’s quite easy to offer wireless service and see really positive net add performance because, one, you obviously don’t have to deal with churn dynamics of customers rolling off of your service. And two, you can cherry pick in the sense that you can take customers who maybe aren’t ready to upgrade their device, and that’s who you offer service to.

And I think that’s what cable has done. Now I believe that, that business is mature enough inside some of the larger cable players that they’re having to deal with customers who now want to upgrade their device and where they don’t provide some form of subsidy. They’ll start to have to deal with churn dynamics. And so I think that subsidy — and we saw that in the iPhone launch, by the way, the subsidies that cable is providing is a third dynamic that I’m tracking pretty carefully. For the third question, Michelle, I’ll hand it to you.

Simon Flannery: Thanks LT.

Laurent Therivel: Yeah, thank you.

Michelle Brukwicki : Yes. Thanks, LT. And thanks for the question, Simon. So you asked about next year whether we’re going to prioritize fiber in or out of region. And I can tell you, the short answer is it’s going to be prioritized and out of region, but let me give you a little bit more context as to why that’s our focus. So as I mentioned in 2023, given our momentum, we have allowed ourselves to spend more this year and to deliver more addresses in 2023, and then we can start selling into those addresses. But next year, we do plan to slow our spending, and we do expect addresses to come in lower, and we expect CapEx to be lower next year than it has been in the 2022 and 2023 levels. And we’re able to do that by prioritizing our spending for a number of reasons.

So one of the reasons is because of the E-ACAM program. In 2023, we’re going to wrap up our existing ACAM obligations and milestones and spending, and then we’re going to pivot and shift our focus to planning and engineering and getting contractors lined up so that we can start delivering the higher speeds and doing those builds to more addresses that are now going to be in that program starting in 2024. So there’s going to be a period where we’re not spending quite as much on ACAM while we’re doing that spending, and then that will ramp up more significantly at the end of 2024 and going into 2025. But because of that E-ACAM program, that also is going to allow us to not spend as much in our base business because we know that, that E-ACAM funding is coming and will help fortify those markets through that program.

So we’re able to back off a little bit on some of our incumbent spending of CapEx and build next year sort of waiting for that E-ACAM funding to be able — it’s not necessarily that we’re waiting for the funding, but waiting for that E-ACAM work to begin to be able to really start giving a lot more attention into those ILEC markets. So that’s why we’re able to then focus and prioritize a little bit more on our out-of-territory, our expansion market regions next year. So hopefully, that helps.

Simon Flannery: Yeah, helpful. Thank you.

Colleen Thompson : Okay, next question?

Operator: Thank you. We go next now to Michael Rollins at Citi.