United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Andrew Didora: Got it. Understood. And then, Andrew, you gave some pretty robust booking figures for February into March and kind of your whole outlook. Any color that you can provide in terms of how you’re thinking about 1Q by region, which regions might you see accelerating, which decelerating from here? Just kind of get a sense of how you’re seeing the world right now? Thank you.

Andrew Nocella: Sure. I’ll go to try. I will say that I started with earlier, the global long-haul environment where capacity ex United is negative and capacity with United is just slightly about at 2019 levels relative to where GDP is this year, provide just an enormous set up to hit a home run on TRASM on our global long-haul network. So, we couldn’t be more bullish about that. And it’s simple, right? Supply is flat versus €˜19 and the propensity to travel along with the economy and GDP is dramatically higher. That sets up a very good opportunity for RM systems, and they’re actively working to do that. And bookings for spring and summer look really strong. So, to Europe, I just think it’s going to be another record RASM and margin year based on that setup, and it looks really good.

Across the Pacific, the same exact capacity setup, by the way, where it’s slightly negative without United and about 100% with United relative to 2019 capacity and a very similar setup, but we also have the opening of China and all three markets, Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai, ultimately. And we think there’s going to be a significant bounce back in demand like we’ve seen in Korea and Australia and other places in the region. The only I think thing we’re watching more carefully is Japan, where the numbers look really good, but it’s based on U.S. point of sale at this point and not Japanese point of sale. We expect the Japanese point of sale to kick in later this spring and summer. So, that one has been slower to rebound. But again, U.S. point of sale just had an enormous, I think, pent-up demand and is ready to fly and is doing — so really covers the numbers.

Once Japan comes back on line from a point-of-sale perspective, I think that further strengthens that as well. Latin America, near Latin America is the best I’ve ever seen it from a TRASM, RASM type perspective at this point. And Deep South America is also very good, but it’s just not nearly as good as the amazing performance we’re seeing eclipse in Latin America. So the setup for our global network is, I think, unbelievably good. And it’s really a very simple math, and there’s very little capacity growth out there and a lot of GDP. And if you look at our capacity guide, while we haven’t given you an international and domestic breakout, you can look at what we’re selling. And you can see how we’ve leaned into it for 2023 to make sure we maximize the profitability of the airline.

And we think that we’ve done that very well. Domestically, I also want to say, Scott, talked about this cost convergence. We talked about the capacity constraints. What people think they’re going to fly in 2023 is not what will really be flown, that happened 2022. We think that’s going to happen in 2023. And given where we think total revenue is and ASMs will be less than that. We think there’s a chance for a positive TRASM domestically as well. And it’s a really good setup. So, across the globe, amazing setup; here at home also a very good setup for a positive outlook for the year.

Operator: Next is Helane Becker from Cowen.

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