United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Andrew Nocella: We’re still expecting really strong results, but it’s just — it’s not keeping up with the ASM growth rates that negative headwind. But our card program is doing really well. The partnership with Chase is just top-notch, new members into the MileagePlus program, relative to where we were in 2019, I think, were up about 50% in the same time period in 2022. So, all of that’s moving in the right direction. It’s just not keeping up with ASM growth in 2023, which creates that inversion between PRASM and TRASM. And obviously, you understand the cargo part of that.

Dave Vernon: Okay. And then, maybe, Scott, just to ask the question, it just kind of came up as you’re talking about the challenges around the industry having to reset its cost structure. Do you see any risk that as you’re kind of looking out and building the revenue plan around your own cost structure, setting fares at a level where you can recover that cost pressure that the rest of the industry maybe doesn’t get there. I guess, if the rest of the industry isn’t quite recognizing what the cost pressure of operating in the new normal is going to be, do you think they’re going to be under pricing and potentially creating some problems for you to absorb some of the costs that you’re building into the network? Thanks.

Scott Kirby: Well, if they’re right — I don’t think they are, but if they’re right and they can return to 2019 utilization and efficiency, then we can, too. That will be easy to just go back to flying. So, no. The short answer is no. I’m not worried about it, because if they are right, it will be really easy for us to just fly the aircraft a little harder. And because we’re growing within a few months, just slow the hiring down and within a few months, you’d be back. To be clear, I think that’s extremely unlikely to happen. But we could adjust our cost structure down if it turned out that we were wrong, and that’s the new normal pretty easily.

Operator: Next, we have Andrew Didora from Bank of America.

Andrew Didora: I just kind of want to go back to fuel for a second, just because it has dominated my conversation so far. I guess, when you think about it conceptually, looking at your 2023 guide, it seems like you’re assuming fuel is going to $2.70 per gallon 2Q to 4Q. And Gerry, you said fuel is a pass-through. So I think that’s down like at least 30% from current market. Just how do you underwrite that kind of 2% to 3% PRASM growth in 2023 if fuel is coming down?

Gerry Laderman: Let me start. Look, what I’d tell you is that I do think fuel is a pass-through in both directions and that it is dynamic on when we pick the number and we — we adjust the revenue forecast for it. But more importantly, where we are in terms of demand and supply and cost convergence, as Scott just spoke about in quite a bit of detail, has just given us, I think, significant ability to utilize our revenue management system to make sure that the price points are where we need them to be. And we did that all through last year. And in fact, we did that all throughout the entire pandemic, where we led the industry, I think, 11 out of 12 quarters. So, we feel really good about where our revenue performance is. We feel really good about where our bookings are.

We feel really great about our Q1 guidance, and we feel really good about where the RM system is currently managing price points for Q2 and beyond. We definitely believe in the GDP relationship. It is converging, and it’s converging for all the reasons that Scott talked about earlier. So, we feel really bullish about the outlook and the ability to achieve the revenues that we need to achieve.

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