And so I guess the question really is that like when are we going to see — if weather was a big problem in the quarter, you exited lower than you average for the quarter, when are we actually going to see some of the volumes show up in the weekly carloads?Jennifer Hamann Well, so let’s start off on the fuel piece. And we agree with your math on the $0.25 for the first quarter. That’s exactly right. You have to think about fuel in two pieces, Amit. You have to think about the fuel surcharge piece and then the expense piece. And while in the first quarter, the fuel surcharge piece was a positive, as we look at what our current prices are for fuel right now, call it $3 a gallon when we paid $4 a gallon a year ago, that’s going to flip on us.
And so that is going to have a different dynamic, but our fuel expense is going to be less as well. And so you really have to think about it in those two parts and separate that out, I would say, in the analysis.The other thing I want to remind everybody about 2Q of last year was we did have an $0.18 benefit from a land sale, Illinois Tollway, and that was in our results. And then we also had $35 million extra in some casualty expenses. So that goes away. So you’ve got some puts and takes there, but I just want to make sure everybody is thinking of as you’re putting that together. Our goal is going to be to continue to drive as much volume as we can across the network, do it as efficiently as we can and improve the service product. And the output of that will be the output of that.
I’m not going to give you specific earnings guidance on that.And then to your other question about volumes, I think you need to factor in the Easter holiday. That does have an impact on our volumes. And so while, yes, weather was clearing, we did have a holiday impact there. And I think, again, we’re putting the assets into place, and we’re going to be moving the volumes that are available to us.Lance Fritz Yes. I’m confident what we’re talking about in reported numbers this week and beyond.Amit Mehrotra Okay. That’s great. And just related to that, Kenny, I don’t know if you have a view on intermodal yields. I know fuel, there’s a lot of noise in intermodal yields in fuel. But are we holding line on intermodal yields ex fuel? And is that the expectation kind of over the next few quarters?Kenny Rocker Yes.
And I said this, Amit, we feel really good about the mechanisms we have in place for our customers to go out there and compete and win and retain business based on their capabilities and their strengths. And I also feel good about, again, as the markets move that we’ll be able to move more real time with it. And so that’s a positive for us.Operator Our next question is from the line of Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.Jon Chappell Eric, I want to go back to the productivity, which I seem to go back to every quarter. But just as it relates to getting to these full year targets, one of your peers has kind of laid out what a fluid network could mean from a cost perspective. So is there any way for you to quantify what you think the productivity improvements could contribute in the final three quarters of ’23?
And also any way for us to kind of understand the timing? You’re still digging out of the weather mostly. They’re still taking people out of training. Is this like 90% a second half productivity improvement type story? Or can you start to get some significant improvement in 2Q?Eric Gehringer Now Jon, thank you for the question. Obviously, we won’t guide you to the specifics on the timing of the productivity. What I would reinforce is that based on the performance that we see on the railroad right now, it’s bringing me and others greater and greater confidence that we’ll see that productivity continue to grow throughout the rest of the year.To say — as you look into the second quarter, the headwind of winter behind us and the forecast of being able to grow the volume, that’s what’s going to drive that.
Beyond that, I’m not going to guide to it. We’re just all focused on making sure that we drive that productivity safely.Jon Chappell Any just broad range of numbers? I mean, if we go back to the Investor Day and the starting point there, any way to kind of parse that out even in a broad range?Jennifer Hamann No. Jon, I think that would be unwise for us to do that. We are not going to try to pace our productivity improvement. And so we want to do that as fast as we can, as safely as we can while providing a really good service product so that we can ultimately drive greater volumes across the network. That’s the real leverage, and it fuels the productivity, quite frankly.Lance Fritz Yes. Jon, this is Lance. So just putting a bow on that. Our expectation is, in Q2 with a fluid network, we really squeeze out a bunch of the excess costs created by kind of weather and variability from those events.
And then we start stretching our legs beyond Q2 to continue to recover some of the productivity and, ultimately, all of the productivity that we forewent in 2022 and then start growing from there.We’ve got a fair amount of inflation that’s in front of us that we got to offset this year and going into next year. So we’re going to be fighting that battle through the whole year as well.Operator [Operator Instructions] And the next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.Ravi Shanker So two very quick follow-ups here. One is I know mix was a headwind in the first quarter. But can you confirm that dollar price was above dollar inflation in the first quarter? And kind of if not, kind of how does that trajectory change versus the year?
And second, kind of if you’re going to have a pretty kind of significant inflection, volumes currently are running down 2.5% year-to-date and you could get to better than down 0.7% for your full year guide, what macro assumption does that involve for the second half of the year? Are you counting on an improvement in macro conditions and/or a restock to get you there? Jennifer Hamann I’ll hit the first part of your question. And yes, our pricing gains in the first quarter did exceed our inflation. Kenny?Lance Fritz Just a second. In terms of macro assumptions, we do not have planned in a recession, right? So a recession would be a problem for us. Absent that, what we need is markets to continue to just behave reasonably, i.e., we need consumers to continue to be healthy spend some.
They don’t have to go crazy. They just need to not pull in their horns. And we need the industrial economy to continue to do what it’s doing. And we need inventory and this whole destocking to calm down after the first quarter, first half. All of those, I think, are pretty reasonable expectations. The wild card would be a recession.Operator Our next question is from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.Brandon Oglenski My one question for Lance or Eric, your trip plan compliance on manifest remains in like the low 60% level. And I know there’s definitional issues, but there are carriers out there delivering much higher than that. So I wonder — we’ve talked a lot about service products on this call today. What’s the right target for trip plan compliance?
And what are the steps to get there?Eric Gehringer Yes. So they’re focusing on the manifest and autos. When that starts with a 7, so right, 70%, 75%, that’s in a place where our customers are giving us feedback that says that we are meeting their expectations. Now as far as steps to get there, you’re going to always have manifest and auto lag the intermodal TPC, and it’s simply because the cycle time of those cars is longer. It’s a conversation we were just having the last two weeks to make sure that we are doing those actions.So when you look at the velocity picking up, that’s a tailwind to it. When you look at our use discounts, which means are we making connections in the terminals to the right trains, that’s up. Just those two things alone drive TPC in the right direction.
And we’re driving that as fast as we possibly can because we want to send the message to our customers that we understand first quarter was difficult, but we’re in a better place now and it’s for their benefit in ours.Operator The next question is from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC.Walter Spracklin I just want to come back to service levels and the regulatory spotlight. Clearly, the whole industry Union Pacific included, is under a bit of a spotlight from the regulator for the service issues. And when I look back historically, whenever a railroad is needed to promptly address the service issue, operating metrics almost always deteriorate rather than improve. So I don’t know if this is best for Jennifer, but I want to come back to that question about are you expecting an OR improvement as early as Q2 based on what you’re seeing now?
I know you said you saw some pretty good exit trends in Q1, weather is behind you, Easter was more of a — it was more of a numbers event or a year-over-year numbers event as opposed to anything fundamental. So would you see yourself as on track to achieve Q2 improvement despite your efforts to address service and that, that Q2 improvement should continue through the rest of the year?Jennifer Hamann Yes, Walter. I’m going to resist the temptation to give you 2Q guidance and stick with the full year guidance. But you all can do the math. I mean we have to make improvement quickly, and it’s got to be sequential. And at some point, obviously, that has to be year-over-year, and that is our focus. And that is our intent, and we’re very confident that we will do that.Walter Spracklin Okay.
And if — and barring that then perhaps year-over-year is at risk if you can’t see that quickly as the quick turnaround that you’re mentioning Jennifer. Is that fair?Jennifer Hamann The longer you go into the year with that improvement, it gets more difficult. Yes, I will agree with that.Operator Our next question is from the line of Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.Bascome Majors Can you talk a little bit about how your relationships and engagement with the STB has evolved over the last few months? And any expectations of how they’ll extend the service period — sorry, the service oversight period when it expires in a few weeks here? And maybe walking that forward next 12 to 18 months, where do you think their eyes will be most focused? And how do you engage with them as the CPKC deal stops sucking up oxygen in that room?Lance Fritz Thank you for the question, Bascome.
So we are deeply engaged at the STB. There is an executive level interaction with an STB either staff or member virtually every day, certainly several a week. What is helping in those conversations right now is, demonstrably, the service product is better and customers’ temperatures are down.The other thing, if you recall, late last year, there was a hearing at the STB that focused on Union Pacific and our use of embargoes. And we, to the STB and to our customers, more importantly, made the commitment that we’re going to both look at how we use embargoes and have an eye towards essentially getting back to a place where they’re rare. Year-to-date, this year, 65% reduction in the use, in the last two months 75% reduction as the railroad is getting better.
And I have all the confidence in the world that kind of progress is going to continue.So what I expect at this point, the STB is a bit of a wildcard. I won’t predict what they do in May as regards the service reporting period. But I know the overall industry and certainly Union Pacific is in a place where our service product is not prompting more scrutiny and significant temperature coming into the STB from customers. And that’s their — that’s their purview. That’s what they’re built for, is to react to customer feedback, and that’s what they’ve done in 2022.So the fact that if we can get customers to a place where they’re satisfied with the service product and in good dialogue with us on it, that takes a lot of the pressure out the STB.Bascome Majors And maybe the longer-term part of that question over the next 12 to 18 months, where do you think they will focus most?
And how do you make sure that your shareholders and customers’ interest are protected there?Lance Fritz Yes, Bascome. So what we keep an eye on are — is the fulsome docket that they’ve got in front of them, things like final offer rate review versus this alternative dispute resolution mechanism, forced open access, the use of revenue adequacy as a rate-setting mechanism, those are things that we’re working hard with the STB for them to understand what the ramifications of some of those decision points are, what is and is not justifiable by data and fact. And then, of course, we engage fulsomely with them to help make sure the regulation coming out of the STB makes sense and accomplishes what they’re trying to accomplish, which is very good service product and growth in the rail industry.
Operator Next question is from the line of Ari Rosa with Credit Suisse. Ari Rosa Great. So really quickly, I was wondering what was the real estate transaction. Maybe you could give a bit of color on that? I don’t think I saw it. And then, Lance, as you approach perhaps the final months, perhaps quarters of your time as CEO at UP, I was hoping you could just kind of take a bigger picture, step back and reflect on what are the accomplishments you’re most proud of and how you think about where you’d like to see the future of the railroad go from here? And in particular, I was hoping you could touch on your thoughts on the ability of UP to grow volume and take share over the next five or 10 years.Jennifer Hamann Yes. In terms of the real estate transaction, Ari, it was a fiber optics deal.Lance Fritz And Ari, thank you very much for the question and the opportunity to reflect just a moment.
