Now we’re seeing more global grain going to places where we exported last year.Now having said all that, looking forward to the rest of the year, hey, we’re still bullish about some of these markets that I mentioned, whether it’s finished vehicles, the metal, rock that’s in our construction area is one and then biofuels.Operator The next question is from the line of Ben Nolan from Stifel.Benjamin Nolan Maybe, Kenny, if I could just follow up with that, we’ve been hearing a whole lot of noise about near-shoring, reshoring, specifically around Mexico. I was curious if you can maybe put a little color around if that’s something you’re seeing, if there’s any notable business wins or anything specific to the moving of manufacturing back to North America that you’re hearing from your customers.Kenny Rocker We are seeing a little bit of that.
We’ve seen production related to the auto OEMs. There was one pretty large highly public analysis that came out. And with that, you got to remember there’s a lot of other inputs that move by rail, whether it’s soda ash or the glass, the metals that comes in for the car. That’s great for us. Also, in our bulk commodities, on the ag side, we’re expecting some new production and receivers out there. So yes, it is looking encouraging, and this is the first time that we’re seeing tangible things that we can point toward. So that’s a positive for us. I won’t go on and on. We enjoy a fabulous network there. I’ll leave it at that.Benjamin Nolan Okay. And just to clarify, how should we think about the timing of an impact on that? I mean is this something that could happen near term?
Or is this a big picture, longer-term kind of a dynamic?Kenny Rocker This is a big picture longer term. I mean, you’ve got to get time for these locations to actually build up the physical infrastructure there.Lance Fritz And not — but, Ben, it’s wonderful to have new production facilities spot in the North American market. We will get our fair share. We have a wonderful franchise to and from Mexico. And any time industry shows up in the North American Continent, it’s good for us. It’s good for railroads. Operator The next is from the line of Justin Long with Stephens. Justin Long I wanted to circle back to the full year guidance. Obviously, the start of the year has been more challenging than you anticipated. So in order to hit your outlook, do we need to see a meaningful positive inflection in the freight market?
And if so, when does that need to occur? And then, Kenny, maybe just a clarification on intermodal. I think you said international volumes were up, but I was wondering if you could share the percent change you saw in both international and domestic intermodal.Jennifer Hamann I’ll take the first part of that question. Again, our guidance relative to volumes is exceeding industrial production. We came into the year, industrial production was forecast to be down about 0.5%. It’s actually gotten a tad bit worse. It’s now down about 0.7%. So that’s not a huge [bump] to exceed. And yes, we started a little weaker, down 1.5 points here in the first quarter. But you just heard Kenny talk about kind of the different markets that are available to us and the fact that, as our service product is improving, we’re putting more assets into play to move more carloads, and that’s giving us greater flexibility to move those assets around to hit the markets that are available to us.
And so we feel quite confident that we will be able to reach that goal as it relates to volumes and the rest of our full year guidance, obviously, which we reiterated. Kenny Rocker Yes. I don’t think I’m going to break out domestic international here. But what we saw, and I mentioned that just because you do have a more fluid intermodal network on the international side, we don’t have a lot of the stack boxes on either end. More of those ocean carriers are moving in one, and we’re seeing that. We put in products up against that. That’s helping that with our grain facility down there on the Dallas side, with The Katy and they’ve hit their largest volume record in the first quarter. They just announced they’re going to expand. And so we feel good about that, that we can move more of that inland.Operator Our next question is from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.Jordan Alliger Just sort of curious, I think other than volume, you talked about other productivity or cost.
Other than fuel expense may be going down, what are some of the other cost levers that you could use to help drive OR to improve over the course of the year? Obviously, volume-dependent, would be things like purchase transport. Just trying to get a sense.Eric Gehringer It’s a great question, Jordan. So as you think about that and the progress we’re seeing right now, it’s impacting nearly every one of our cost lines in a positive way. The big ones that we talk about is certainly starting with fleet size. In our prepared comments, I mentioned the fact that we’re taking 100 locomotives and then putting them in storage, but they’re in a storage state in which they can still be there quickly to gain volume.Next after that, it’s all about crew utilization, right, which stretches everything from recrew rates to deadhead — to how do we think about over time and making sure that we’re being judicious with the use of over time.
From there, we certainly do, even though you mentioned that we do focus on our fuel consumption. And I’m really encouraged actually by the first quarter because if you look at January, we came out very strong. February was kind of okay, and March was certainly weak, which means with weather behind us, there’s no reason that we shouldn’t snap right back to that great progress that we saw in January. So it’s those others, but I’ve listed the biggest ones.Operator Our next question is from the line of Jason Seidl with TD Cowen.Jason Seidl Two quick things. Kenny, I think you said there were some pricing pressures in a few of your industries. I mean I understand intermodal. Would love to hear what else is being pressured out there. And also in terms of the West Coast port labor situation, how much freight do you think got diverted?
And if we get a resolution here, hopefully in the near term, do you think it would come back quickly or it would take some time?Kenny Rocker Yes. So before I talk about domestic intermodal, which I think is your question, I just want to reiterate that we’ve got a broad diverse set of customers and markets that we get the price. And we’ve said that publicly, call it, approximately roughly half of that business, we get to touch every year outside of just one particular market. Now there is a lag impact to that. But the sales leaders, the commercial teams have done a really fabulous job going out articulating, hey, we’re spending quite a bit on CapEx. We’re putting quite a few resources out there. They understand what’s taken place in the industry with our business on the labor side and the labor negotiations.
And candidly, they are experiencing the same inflationary pressure. So you’ve got that piece.Now talking about domestic intermodal, yes, domestic intermodal has been a pretty loose market, quite a bit of truck capacity that’s there. We’re seeing it in our bids and RFPs. We’ve got mechanisms that are in place for our suite of intermodal customers to go out there and compete and win business based on their own strengths and capabilities, which give us confidence. And the other part of that is the fact that as the market tightens up, we can quickly capture that upside.Lance Fritz And Kenny, Jason’s last question about West Coast ports and ILWU.Kenny Rocker Yes. We’ve been in close contact with the West Coast port, and they believe that there should be an agreement here near term.
I’ll tell you it’s hard to quantify what’s been diverted away because of some of these labor challenges. I’ll tell you when we look at the order book going out to, I’ll call it, the West Coast ports, it looks like the negative delta that we saw year-over-year is becoming less and less.Jason Seidl That’s good. And you think that there was an agreement, again, knock on wood, because everyone wants that, that you would receive it back quickly or would come back over time?Kenny Rocker I think that’s just — I can’t be that precise, Jason. We could be positive about it, but to be precise, probably just wouldn’t be a good idea.Operator Our next question is from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.Brian Ossenbeck Kenny, just a follow-up on the pricing reset.
Is that kind of going as is expected? Do you still have a little bit more of a lag impact because volumes may be a little bit weaker than you had thought? So I guess is that going to accelerate here? And same sort of question with price/mix. Is that probably the worst you’d expect in the near term here as you look at the different end markets as they’re developing?Kenny Rocker Yes. Certainly, the way we calculate price volume increasing and improving helps us. So I’ll say that also because it is April and not December. We have time to get more of that volume in the play as we move throughout the year. I would not say that there are some markets that are harder to capture price in other than those areas where we have mechanisms in place align with domestic intermodal.
We’ve been very disciplined in our approach to take price. And in some cases, we’ve all taken some risk there to make sure that we’re pricing towards the market.Lance Fritz And Kenny, the same — what you said about domestic intermodal to a lesser degree is truly in coal where you’ve got natural gas can be a driver of some pricing.Kenny Rocker Absolutely. We’ll be watching natural gas pretty closely.Jennifer Hamann Yes. And to the mix part of your question, Brian, coming into the year, our view is that mix would likely be negative throughout the year, primarily around the fact that we were expecting to see more growth on the intermodal side. Obviously, that’s changed a bit. And so looking to the second quarter at least, we’re probably expecting a bit of a positive mix.
Beyond that, I think it’s too soon to say. But I do think that’s something that is different as we sit here today than when we came and talked to you in January.Brian Ossenbeck Just a quick follow-up for Lance on the regulatory and legislative side. A lot of noise coming out of D.C. Some of the safety things you mentioned earlier and some of the stats on UP specifically. But what are you most focused on when it comes to the different topics that are being discussed down there. We tend to focus on train lengths. It’s obviously an FRA Safety Advisory recently. But I just wanted to hear what was important and what you thought we should focus on when it comes to the various topics being discussed after the safety issues that we’ve seen in the industry over the last few months?Lance Fritz Yes, Brian.
That’s a great question. So in engaging the legislators in D.C., we help them understand what would actually move the ball in terms of safety, where regulatory effort would make a difference and where it wouldn’t. To your point, train length wouldn’t. Statistically, on UP, since 2019, train length is up something like 20% in our mainline and siding derailments are down 26%. So there’s zero corollary between train length and derailments. But there are other things that they can help with. We’re taking action right now on wayside detection. That’s a place where the FRA can step in. Things that we emphasize, that really don’t have a corollary impact, another one is crew size and whether conductors are redeployed to the ground. That has no impact on safety around the world empirically.
So we just broadly try to help them understand that and stay deeply engaged. This is a deep engagement all the time right now.Operator The next question is from the line of Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo.Allison Poliniak I just want to ask on the new business. I guess, first, is there any way — I know there’s a lot of moving parts with volumes, to maybe quantify or help us understand the contribution of the new business wins in volumes. And then second, as part of that, just in terms of the new business pipeline, any notable trends in sort of the conversion that you’re seeing in terms of bringing on new business onto the rail?Kenny Rocker Yes. It’s pretty broad because, obviously, it’s in all three of our business teams, meaning if you look at it, biofuels, renewable diesel for us is an emerging market.
Been very encouraged by our ability to land new customers, new production sites to move out of the Midwest going into the West, and those are attractive margins to us. On the industrial side, the same thing is true as we look at our metals business and some of the minerals business tied to that. Same as with rock. Those are areas that are positive, and they have structural increases related to population growth down in Texas, Louisiana and the Gulf. And so those are great. And then you are aware — you are aware, Allison, of some of the new recent wins in our intermodal sector. And again, we feel really blast that we’ve got a fleet of highly capable customers that can go out and grow business over the road, and it complements very nicely our UMP our UMAX and E&P products that we have in the marketplace.Allison Poliniak And just any color on the conversion trends of the new business opportunities out there?Kenny Rocker We see the pipeline is still there.
The thing that we’re keeping an eye on is are they actually moving the forecasted amount that they initially told us. So no concerns with the pipeline, just a little bit of concern with making sure the volume that they committed to is still there.Operator Our next question is from the line of Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.Amit Mehrotra Jennifer, are earnings going to be up as you move from 1Q to 2Q? Because there’s a big fuel benefit in the EPS line in 1Q, and we calculate it like $0.25 or something like that. And a lot of that is going away because of the lag on fuel. And so you’re starting kind of from a hole to build back on as you move from 1Q to 2Q. I know there’s weather, but I’m just trying to understand if the cadence of earnings growth from 1Q can actually grow in 2Q because of that operating income impact from fuel?And then just related to that, because volume seems to be the fulcrum for all of this, the average weekly volume in the quarter was 152,000 seven-day carloadings, and I think last week, you did under that, and the weather is a lot better.
