UDR, Inc. (NYSE:UDR) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Joe Fisher: Yes. Good question. I’d say, number one, just related to the current pipeline, I want to point out. From a cost perspective, we are primarily locked in. So of the three projects still under construction, we’re 95% bought out. And with that 5% remaining risk, we’ve got contingencies in place. So from a cost and return standpoint, feel very good about all the projects on Attachment 9, still kind of trending to the high 5s, low 6s for majority of those deals as they go through lease-up. So that’s on the current pipeline. As we kind of go forward, the one project that we’ve talked about in the past is a Phase 2 Newport Village in Northern Virginia. In the next 30 days, we should get kind of final cost estimates on that and final refinement of return expectations.

We fully expect that to be in the kind of mid-5s current type range. And when I say current, that’s current rents on inflated or projected cost and so that should stabilize over time as we go through that somewhere into the low to mid-6s. We think that’s an acceptable level for that project, especially given that it’s a Phase 2 and has ancillary benefits to Phase 1 from a efficiency and padding perspective. So that’s the near-term decision for us. The next decision is probably not going to be for another 6 months plus as we get into the back half of the year, at which time, I think we will have more price discovery and views in terms of cost of capital and best alternatives for that capital, so nothing else near term in terms of growing the pipeline.

Steve Sakwa: Great. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Adam Kramer: Hey, guys. Really appreciate all the kind of the color earlier, just framing the high end, low end and midpoints. I was just wondering kind of given the strong renewal growth, even with kind of a new lease decel, where does that loss to lease stand today? And maybe just kind of framing out, could that shift to a gain to lease if renewals kind of do stay in this elevated range with new kind of modest growth?

Mike Lacy: That’s a really good question. I’ll tell you what’s been promising to see is, today, we’re sitting around 2.2 loss to lease. Last month, we were around 1.5. So we’ve actually seen our loss to lease increase, and a lot of that has to do with what we’ve seen with market rents on a sequential basis, go up almost nearly 1%. So even though we’re sending out high renewals and capturing it, we’re pushing our market rents, which gives us the ability to continue to have a relatively high loss to lease. And just to put it in perspective, this time of year, we’re usually around 1.5. So we’re actually a little bit above that. So we feel pretty good about where we’re tracking.

Adam Kramer: That’s great. Thanks. And then just I think there was a question earlier on maybe one of the weaker markets in Seattle. Maybe just the flip side of that question, looking in New York, I mean, 16.3% effective new lease rate growth in the fourth quarter. I guess, what’s kind of driving the continued strength there? I guess maybe the question is, can that continue? And is there a world where maybe that kind of continues to be a really strong market even with new kind of deselling in other markets?

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