UDR, Inc. (NYSE:UDR) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Mike Lacy: Hey Anthony, what we are seeing with the Sunbelt today is market rents as well as our loss leases a little bit lower to start the year. That being said, we do expect with seasonality and as we return to just a more normal period of time, market rents will increase as we move forward. But as we started the year off, it’s a little bit lower than what we are seeing on the coastal side of the house.

Anthony Powell: Got it. Thanks. And maybe one just a general question, I think you said your loss lease was increasing in February, traffic trends improved January, February. Doesn’t that suggest that demand may be stronger than people are expecting across the board this year? It seems like things are loosening up across the nation. And how does that impact your overall macro view for the year?

Mike Lacy: Yes, Anthony, I would tell you, we are cautiously optimistic. And a lot of that over the last few weeks has really shown more strength. I will tell you, the start of the year, the first two weeks of January, it was pretty slow. Demand was slow. It typically is given the holidays. But we are hopeful that what we are experiencing over the last few weeks is a trend, and something we will continue to see as we move forward. And obviously, the leasing season is just around the corner. We will have a lot more to talk about here at the Citi Conference as well as we get into 2Q, if you will.

Anthony Powell: Great. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from Tayo Okusanya with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Tayo Okusanya: Hi. Good afternoon. Congrats on the quarter on the solid outlook. Just on the OpEx side, just given that your same-store OpEx growth forecast is pretty much, much lower than most of your peers. I get some of the operational efficiencies you guys are working on. But curious, on the real estate side as well, you only had 2.7% year-over-year growth in €˜21 €“ as in €˜22, sorry, on any in €˜23, you are kind of forecasting that growth just below 5%, which again seems much lower than your peers. So, I am just trying to understand what’s driving that? Is it you guys just challenging a whole bunch of appraisals, or how do we kind of think through that on the real estate side?

Joe Fisher: Hey Tayo, it’s Joe. So, I would say starting off when you look at what we know today, we actually already know about 40% of our taxes for the year. And so you start to get a pretty good read at this point. And we have an in-house team, but they are also working with consultants in the field. We do challenge or appeal probably about 50% of those on a yearly basis that are available for appeal. When you look at the markets, Mike mentioned earlier, Sunbelt is kind of in that 5% to 10% range is the range that we have factored into expectations at this point. So, we saw more pressure in 2022 as you look through our Texas and Florida markets. We expect that to continue, just given the phenomenal growth that they saw over the last couple of years and the fact that, typically, you are in a little bit of a lag basis.

So, even though NOI growth has been a little less proficient this year and valuations with cap rates moving up may have come down a little bit, that’s more of a lagged impact that maybe you see in €˜24. When you get to the coast with Prop 13, you are capped at 2% there for about 30% of our portfolio. So, then that just leaves Seattle plus New York, Boston, D.C., which are actually generally on fiscal years. So, we are right now six months of the growth rate there. So, net-net, it gets us to about a 5% impact for real estate tax for the year.

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