We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Affordable Stocks Under $40 According to Short Sellers. In this article, we are going to take a look at where UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS) stands against the other affordable stocks under $40.
Several traders tend to profit from stocks through appreciation. However, some do the opposite– their idea is to profit from stocks when their value declines. This happens through a strategy known as short selling. In simple words, short selling means borrowing a security whose price is expected to fall and then selling it in an open market. Later, the trader buys that same stock back, hopefully at a lower price than initially sold for. The trader then returns the borrowed stock to the broker and pockets the difference.
Short interest serves as a barometer of investor sentiment towards a stock, sector, or market. Short interest represents the number of shares that have been sold short and are still outstanding. Since short sellers tend to benefit from the decline in the stock price, rising short interest generally signals higher negative investor sentiment. On the other hand, declining short interest means investors are becoming less bearish.
Short Sellers Made Fortunes Despite S&P 500 Touching Record Highs
Bloomberg reported that short sellers saw a strong 2Q 2024, despite the broader market touching record highs.
Over the past 6 months, the S&P 500 saw an increase of over ~11%. How did the short sellers make money in this environment? Short sellers amassed about $10 billion in paper profits during 2Q 2024.
The paper earnings from sectors like industrials, health care, and financials were able to offset the $15.7 billion mark-to-market losses experienced in technology.
This means that investors continue to flock to just a few mega-cap technology stocks amid a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Therefore, there were some areas of weakness in other sectors. During the quarter ended 28 June, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index saw an increase of over ~7%. Meanwhile, the energy sector witnessed the most short covering during 2Q 2024.
Short Sellers Saw Record Weekly Profits Due to Broad-Based Tech Decline
While the short sellers saw losses in 2Q 2024 as a result of broad-based buying in the technology stocks, the group was able to pocket some gains in early April 2024. Reuters reported that traders who bet against the “Mag 7” group of the US technology stocks were able to book their biggest-ever weekly profit of over $10 billion in mid-April. During that time, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index and S&P 500 saw 6 straight sessions of declines as there was high inflation and evidence of resilience in the US economy. As a result, the rate cut hopes were hampered, benefiting the group of short sellers.
As per LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group plc) data, overall, Big Tech shed ~$1 trillion in their market cap.
Short Bets Have Now Declined, Large Bank Says
JPMorgan believes that consecutive highs in the broader US stock market turned short selling into a difficult trade. Therefore, the bets against the US indexes have now tumbled. The declining short interest continues to provide steady support to the US equities, helping to suppress volatility. Experts opine that there are 3 critical factors, because of which it was difficult to bet against the market situation.
Firstly, the short bets are expensive to maintain if the stock starts climbing, a risk that holds significance in today’s bull run. The excitement around artificial intelligence (Al), the potential for rate cuts, and the state of the broader economy have all been factored in. Secondly, analysts believe that regulators have added restrictions to short selling, as they have mandated transparency and added costs to short sellers that target equities. Finally, the industry players continue to back out as they face a rising wall of participating retail investors.
Our methodology
To compile the list of 10 Best Affordable Stocks Under $40 according to short sellers, we used the Finviz screener and shortlisted the stocks with prices less than $40. Then, we selected the stocks that have a forward P/E multiple of less than ~22.40x (since the broader market trades at a forward P/E of ~22.40x). Finally, we picked stocks that were the most popular among hedge funds and had low short interest. The stocks are ranked in descending order of their short interest.
At Insider Monkey, we are obsessed with the stocks that hedge funds pile into. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
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UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS)
Forward P/E Ratio as of 26 August: 20.79x
Share Price as of 26 August: $31.12
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 33
Short % of Shares Outstanding (31 July 2024): 0.42%
UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS) offers financial services to private, corporate, and institutional clients. It also provides investment, retail, corporate, and institutional banking, holistic wealth management planning, and asset management services.
The company demonstrated exceptional financial resilience in its latest results as the company outpaced earnings forecasts. In 2Q 2024, it posted an EPS of $0.34, surpassing the analysts’ expectations of $0.12.
This exhibits its successful execution of the post-Credit Suisse acquisition strategy. The company delivered a strong performance in its core businesses and remains on track with capital return plans, such as dividends and buybacks. UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS) and Credit Suisse have wrapped up their merger after more than a year, finally bringing an end to the discussions.
The merger of the parent banks is an important milestone in facilitating the migration of clients onto UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS)’s platforms. It should now unlock the next phase of cost, capital, funding, and tax benefits from 2H 2024.
Moving forward, the company plans to focus on cost reductions, which are expected to be driven by its focus on client account and platform migrations. UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS) captured nearly half of its targeted gross cost savings and made strong progress in addressing the legacy legal issues. It plans to roll out new rates in its advisory services in 4Q 2024. The company anticipates lending balances outside the US to improve as and when rates come down. The wealth management segment in the US and expansion in retail banking in emerging markets should continue to act as tailwinds:
Notably, 4 equities research analysts gave a “Hold” rating on the shares of UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS) and 3 analysts gave a “Buy” rating. As of the end of 2Q 2024, 33 out of 912 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey held stakes in the company.
Patient Capital Management, a value investing firm, released its fourth quarter 2023 investor letter and mentioned UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS). Here is what the fund said:
“UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS) is a name we opportunistically purchased following the banking crisis earlier in the year. UBS benefited from buying its largest local competitor, Credit Suisse, for an 80% discount from where it was trading before the crisis. We bought after the deal, believing the market’s myopic focus on short-term integration risks failed to properly value the attractive set of assets. While the stock has done well since then, we still believe it is underappreciating the long-term return potential of the business.”
Overall UBS ranks 3rd on our list of the best affordable stocks under $40 according to short sellers. While we acknowledge the potential of UBS as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some deeply undervalued AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for a deeply undervalued AI stock that is more promising than UBS but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
