UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Ralph Hamers: Yes, thank you, Andrew. I’ll take the first one; Sarah, the second one. So on the capital guidance, I think if you compare our language that we used last year around this time and this time, it’s more confident. Because last year, we basically gave you a guidance of around $5 billion. And now basically, we’re giving you above $5 billion. And honestly, why don’t we give precise numbers? Because it’s not a precise business that we’re in. So we have to deal with market circumstances, with developments, with sentiments, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And we think it is better to give you a guidance that we’re confident in on delivering and then update you while the year goes by. Sarah?

Sarah Youngwood: In terms of the FX, all I would give you as a reference point is that the FX was an impact, for example, this quarter of approximately $200 million in both directions, so both on the expense and on the revenue. And so that gives you an idea of what it could look like, but of course, it will depend on the FX cost.

Operator: The next question is from Jeremy Sigee from BNP Paribas.

Jeremy Sigee: Two related questions, please, both on net new money flows. Firstly, your outlook comment has quite a cautious comment about client sentiment may affect flows. I know that’s unchanged language from the previous quarter. I just wondered if there’s anything specific in that, that you’re seeing or if that’s just general caution. That’s my first question. And then the second one, slightly related. I know it’s sensitive for you to talk about flows from or relating to your competitors. But I just wondered why you wouldn’t be the natural home for outflows coming out of a competitor. You’re saying that’s not the primary source of your inflows, which is a bit surprising. Why wouldn’t you be the natural home for some of those flows to relocate to?

Ralph Hamers: Thank you, Jeremy. So on the first one, it is general caution. So since you asked the question, so specifically, it is general caution. And it has to do, Jeremy, with the fact that we are at the start of the year, we see some positive signals around China opening up, could be a support of economic growth and constructive market environment. We see the LCM, the leverage capital markets, coming back to life a bit, which is normally a leading indicator for capital markets to open up as well. So those are positive signals. But on the other hand, we’re waiting for inflation numbers and with that to get a sense for how strict central banks will have to move in order to curb that inflation to break it into a nonstructural inflation to a lower level and what the cost of that could be to the economy.

So that’s why we are generally cautious because these are the things that play. I do expect, in the next couple of weeks even, to have a bit more clarity certainly about inflation, central bank movements, China further opening up, corporate results coming through as well. So I do think that the next couple of weeks could give us some hints as to how firm market recovery could be. So — and that — but for the moment, it is general caution there. On the second question, there’s many places where clients can go. In general, given the fact that we are the largest wealth manager in the world, there’s not necessarily new clients for us, right? So we already deal with clients that others have as well. So although we are certainly the natural place for these clients to go to, they are generally already a client of ours.

That is one aspect. And the other aspect is that there is a bit of a difference in risk appetite in some situations as well. So those are the 2. Thank you.

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