U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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John Stern: Yes. Maybe just to go to the last couple of questions you mentioned. So from a noninterest bearing, yes, we do expect that mix, we’re at about 19%. That’s about where we will be — we expect that to be in that range. And from a beta perspective, we are in the mid-40s right now. It’s possible it could creep up higher depending on where the Fed goes from here, but we feel good about that. And then in terms of the net interest margin and things like that, we do anticipate a little bit more pressure here in the fourth quarter, but then that really is the point where we feel that it’ll bottom out based on my comments I just made a previous question?

Andy Cecere: And that’s reflected in our revenue and net interest income guidance.

John Stern: Yes.

John cDonald: Okay. And then recognizing with the Fed decision, you’ve obviously got a lot more time to phase in the AOCI now. John, can you just give us a little more color on what happened in terms of the trend in AOCI this quarter? What are the pieces there? How do the swaps affect your burn-down time line? And just also if you could add on, what do you — how do you calculate the capital with AOCI today? It looks like maybe around 7%, something like that.

John Stern: Yes. So I think all in, it’s about — AOCI is about 250 basis points of impact. So I would say 7.2% is roughly kind of where I would think about it. In terms of the change in the AFS, obviously, rates backed up on the long end of the curve, 75 to 90 basis points, depending on treasuries or mortgages that you’re looking at. And that had an impact of about $1.4 billion in our — on an after-tax basis on our AFS securities book, which we would have expected and is consistent with the duration of our book, which we have continued to wind down, as I mentioned in our comments about — less than 3.5 years is our current duration. So that’s the effect of that. We are continuing to see — we will continue to see pay downs in that book, whether it’s the HTM or AFS. We have about approximately $3 billion or so per quarter that rolls off that book, and we’ll reinvest in the AFS side of things over time.

Operator: Next, we’ll go to Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.

Mike Mayo: Just to be clear, how much of the $900 million merger savings were recognized in the third quarter results?

John Stern: Well, in terms of — we will get to a full run rate of $900 million, it’s probably $100 million or so is kind of the — in that range is probably what we were seeing. But it’s been growing in terms of the amount, and we’ll see that full benefit fall through in the fourth quarter.

Mike Mayo: So relative to the third quarter, the first quarter of 2025 could see $800 million of additional expense savings?

John Stern: No, because we’ve been — the savings have been generated all throughout the course of the year, and they have — they accelerate third quarter into fourth quarter, and second quarter, third quarter and the fourth quarter.

Mike Mayo: So what’s the cumulative merger savings? I guess how much more expense savings should there be when they’re fully realized in the first quarter relative to the third quarter?

John Stern: When we have the savings, we’ll have approximately $400-or-so million that has gone through this full year, and then we’ll expect to see that in the next coming year. But that’s embedded into our full year guidance of flat expenses between 2023 and 2024.

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