U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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John Stern: Sure. Thanks, Ebrahim. So — this is John. As a way of background, the Fed granted us as we — as you mentioned, full relief from our Category II commitments, and that’s because of the action, Andy mentioned this, of our actions to reduce risk as well as our ability to strengthen our capital position. So importantly, this is going to provide us additional time and flexibility to meet those new regulatory requirements and do so in the same timeframe as our Category III peers. And additionally, we think it’s going to reduce the downside given the challenging rate environment. But nothing really changes in terms of how we’re fundamentally managing the balance sheet going forward. We’re still committed to building regulatory capital.

We’re still expecting to increase and accrete capital at a 20 to 25 basis points on average per quarter. And our expectation is to accelerate that as we get through the merger-related costs or be in the high end of that range, I should say, as we get through the merger-related costs and start to realize the full Union Bank synergies. And we’re still going to be executing risk-weighted asset optimization transactions. But now we have the time and flexibility to do that over in a way that is low to neutral in terms of our earnings impact. And so for all those reasons, we feel like we have the flexibility in our balance sheet to do those sorts of things.

Andy Cecere: I think that’s exact, John. And the only thing I’d add is that part of the decision is reflective of what we’ve already done for the last 12 months in terms of reducing the risk profile, building capital, optimizing the balance sheet. And I want to be clear, Ebrahim, we are not under an asset cap at all. We are maintaining flexibility and managing the balance sheet and capital, and we’ll continue to remain focused on capital-efficient growth. And that includes focusing the high-margin, high-return businesses that exceed our cost of capital, while deepening relationships from our most profitable clients. And that has been and will continue to be our focus.

Ebrahim Poonawala: That’s good color. And just another question, John, I think I heard you correctly — if I heard you correctly, you mentioned you expect the NIM to draw off, and I’m assuming NIM equals the trough in the fourth quarter. Maybe just that assumption in terms of does a steeper yield curve or widening in just the curve. So is — that assumption around troughing of NII or NIM? And what gives you confidence around mix change consumer behavior to feel good about that?

John Stern: Yes. So I think in terms of the guidance we provided, we have embedded in there our rate forecast, which includes a rate increase in December. Whether or not that happens or not is relatively immaterial since we’re fairly neutral from an interest rate risk positioning standpoint. I guess what I would say is as the Fed is — whether they’re done or not in terms of the rate hiking, we start to see a lot of things on the deposit side slowdown, so our noninterest-bearing balances will be relatively stable here at this level. The deposit betas will — rate paid will start to slow down. And then on the other side, your assets will start to reprice, whether that’s the securities book, the loan book and all those sort of things. So that’s what gives us the confidence really that we will bottom out here in the fourth quarter from a NIM and net interest income perspective.

Operator: Next, we go with John McDonald with Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

John cDonald: John, can I just follow up on what you’re just talking about. What are you looking at in terms of the NIM for the fourth quarter roughly? And did I hear correctly, you think the deposit mix kind of settles out around 19%, 20%, where you are here in beta kind of in the mid-40s, you still have those expectations?

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