U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Mike Mayo: Hi. Well, on the capital issue I asked last quarter, do you think there’s any chance that you need to raise capital or cut the dividend? And I’ll just to ask again, or what – I mean, people were doing these mechanistic analyses where they would take the underlying securities losses, reduce that from tangible equity, give you no credit, and then say you would need to raise capital. So, now that you’ve met your year-end capital target, I guess would you reiterate, or to what degree would you reiterate no capital increase, no dividend cut. And in addition, if you could put in a broader context, the vice chair of the Fed, Barr, last week said that actually the economic value of equity at banks goes up because of higher value of deposits. So, it seems like he signs on to a lot of the analysis that we analyst do. So, just if you could comment on the bigger picture about your capital and the flexibility there.

Andy Cecere: Yes, Mike, this is Andy. And as Terry mentioned, so we accelerated our RWA actions, got to 9.1 at the end of the second quarter, well ahead of our 9.0 by the end of the year. We expect to be at least 9.5 by the end of the year, if not better. And we have a game plan we’re comfortable with and confident enough to get to 9 under the Basel – under the Cat II definition by the end of 2024. So, all those things make us confident in the capital walk that we talked about and the actions we’re taking.

Mike Mayo: And then on the negative side, you and a lot of regional banks have continued to lower guidance on NII, and here we go again with that. And look, I mean, rates went up faster than you or anyone had expected. The yield curve is a lot more inverted. I guess competition has picked up more than expected. What inning do you think you’re in terms of this downward revision for NII? Do you think you’re kind of there now? You said third quarter could be down a little bit. And as you exit the year, do you think you maintain that third quarter level or what – I think you said NIM would be flat after that, but I’m not sure if you mentioned NII. So, is the downward revision for NII done, or eighth inning, seventh inning, and what does that mean for kind of run rate going to next year?

Terry Dolan: Yes. So, again, obviously you heard the guidance with respect to NII and NIM. We expect it to be a few basis points down in the third quarter and then relatively stable from there. Obviously, this is rate, excuse me, it’s Fed policy kind of dependent. So, we’re trying to look at what the current environment looks like, but we feel like if I had to kind of put what inning are we in, I think we’re in the late innings simply because of where the Fed is from a monetary policy standpoint. So, while there may continue to be a little bit of downward pressure, we don’t see it as being significant from here. Andy, what would you add?

Andy Cecere: Mike, the other thing I’d add is, I think one of the benefits of our business model is the diversity of revenue. So, even in a stressed environment on deposits, which you’re absolutely right about, we have the payments revenue, the trust revenue, the commercial products revenue, and on top of all that, $900 million of cost synergies that we’re going to act on. So, we’re pulling lots of levers, not just on margin.

Mike Mayo: Okay. Thank you.

Operator: And next, we have a follow up from John McDonald with Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.