Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE:TSN) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Donnie King: Sure. I will start and then offer it up to anyone else that may have something to add. But I think it’s €“ if you look at the information that we see, it says the consumer is working through savings. In the middle of the pandemic, they were able to bank a lot of savings. And over the last little bit they have been working through that savings. And I think many consumers are now out of that €“ those savings and/or at least nearing the last of it. And so I would expect the consumer to be under more pressure as we move forward in this year. And €“ but I would also remind you that as a company, if you look at our brands and we cover the spectrum across proteins. We have a product for every consumer across various proteins and price points.

So, we feel very good about the fact that we can intersect with that consumer wherever they are. And that’s I think a good position to be in and are the best position you can be in. And so we will see how it turns out. But we don’t know any more about that than you do today.

John Tyson: Yes. I would add two things to what Donnie is saying. Number one, if you think about the kind of prepared and retail branded side of our business, we have been paying attention to what the consumer is doing and feeling over the last few quarters and we continue today. I think the good news is even in these times where the outlook for the economy is evolving, we have had pretty steady growth and pretty strong performance in that part of our business, which tells us that while, yes, there may be a lot of behavioral changes going on in the economy, we see consumers come into the brands and the categories that we are in repeatedly. So, I think we feel good about that. On the second point I want to make is from a €“ how to say it, the supply and demand balancing on the kind of fresh and frozen more commodity protein side of our business, has more influence on how we are performing than does the macro situation because people are going to continue to eat protein.

They may cut back on other things, but food is not one of them.

Michael Lavery: That’s helpful. And just a follow-up on the beef spreads you have called out the drivers of the pressure near-term. But any sense of how long before it can rebound? And I know you don’t want to get into fiscal €˜24 really, but maybe any just directional guardrails of how to think about it? Is this going to be more of the same for a while? Is there something you can point to that’s a catalyst one way or the other, just a little bit maybe longer look if there is anything you can add there?

Donnie King: Yes. I mean it’s I wish I could be here before you today and tell you I knew when that was going to happen. But there is kind of some prerequisites before we are going to see retention, which is going to be driven by better precipitation, getting past the drought and for ranchers to see to have hay that’s more affordable and forage land to be able to feed those animals. I don’t think you are going to see retention in a meaningful way until those things occur. And I have listened to every expert that’s been through all of these cycles through all of these years. And I have been through a couple of them myself. It’s I get a number somewhere between the spring of €˜23 and the spring of €˜24. And that’s how variable it could be.

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