Tucows Inc. (NASDAQ:TCX) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

As you heard in Dave Woroch’s remarks, we are as excited about our growth prospects as we have been in a long time. With Wavelo, the platform is now loading at a brisk pace. You can best see that by the end-of-year number Justin shared of 2 million subscribers and the current number of over 3 million. Wavelo has now turned in earnest to building a pipeline of new customers. With the team they’ve built, I have every confidence in them. This is already a business that will generate north of $25 million in revenue next year. With Ting, we are nearing the end of an over two-year journey to lay in the right funding structure. Patience has proven to be a virtue. Funding structures have evolved to better match the nature of the industry, and patience while continuing to build has helped us to likely maximize the value for TCX shareholders in any potential equity transaction if we choose to do one.

Ting moves into deep execution mode, and we take what we believe is a best-in-industry ISP to a whole new level, hopefully changing the way people think about ISPs forever. What this all translates to is EBITDA guidance of roughly $45 million for Tucows Domains, roughly breakeven for Wavelo and an EBITDA loss of around $40 million for Ting. Don’t be alarmed by that Ting loss; it is the cost of ramping so significantly in a business where paybacks are fantastic but long term. When you hear my comments below, remember they are all made in light of this number, meaning this loss is well understood by industry participants. I also note we have essentially built the scale in the operation to handle the remainder of this period of building in the U.S. coax-to-fiber transition.

Finally, I would like to talk about the balance sheet. And when I say that, I am really talking about two separate balance sheets. First, and most importantly, while there is work to be done on both sides of the business, I expect that work to be complete or substantially complete by the time we report our next quarter. Obviously, specifics will only come as we make announcements, but I note that this has been a long journey. For my work specifically, this journey dates back to the winter of 2020. On the ex-Ting side, the solutions are likely to be straightforward. Our leverage on that side of the business is higher than either we or the banking syndicate would like it to be. At the same time, we both understand that the primary reasons for that in 2022 were the delayed close of the Generate financing, which required us to draw down an extra quarter of capital to continue to fund the fiber build; the slower-than-hoped-for load of DISH subscribers, which was a negative cash outcome for all the right business reasons; and the rise in interest rates.

As you see with the EBITDA results for 2022, the underlying businesses performed remarkably well to plan. I said straightforward. Simply, we expect to start deleveraging ex-Ting over this year and beyond. On the Ting, side I was at the Metro Connect conference last week, and the excitement over the coax-to-fiber transition in the U.S. has reached a new level. Operators who are already participating in this land rush are heads down and focused on their work. Infrastructure funds that are already participating are looking to deploy more capital as they see the inevitability. Those who are not yet involved are on the outside looking in. People are realizing that it’s too late in the cycle to stand up new platforms. There are also two themes that have clearly emerged, and to our good fortune, they are themes we are well ahead of the curve on: fixed-mobile convergence and wholesale fiber builds.