Truist Financial Corporation (NYSE:TFC) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Gerard Cassidy: Very good. And then coming back on — obviously, you guys talked about credit quality. You referenced, Mike, about commercial real estate in your opening remarks and you just talked about multifamily again. And Truist has always been good on its credit. So my question on commercial real estate in the office area, and maybe this is for Clarke, can you kind of draw a line for us from early ‘22 when there wasn’t really any problems before rates started to go higher in downtown office, really, or maybe just emerging? And incrementally, it’s clearly deteriorated. Clarke, can you share with us, is the deterioration accelerating on a sequential basis in the office market? Or have we seen the rapid acceleration of down values, real workouts taken charge-offs? And going forward, yes, you’re still going to see higher charge-offs probably, but the actual incremental deterioration is lessening or worsening, can you share with us from that standpoint?

Clarke Starnes: Great question we talk a lot about, Gerard. And so I would say as I mentioned, as opposed to multifamily, we view the risk in the CRE sector as more structural, and it still will take some time to play out over the next couple of years. And the way we think about it, everyone with credit in the sector is exposed to the risk. And so the big challenge will be for those that have large concentrations, which we don’t. So we feel good about that. And our strategy has been to try to identify the risk early and work through with those borrowers to address all options. And you see that in how we approached risk rating, accrual status and reserves. So that’s kind of where we are right now. We feel good about our efforts.

But to your point, we still think about the fact there are very few real trades today. So it’s hard to know what real price discovery and whether we’ve hit the bottom of the cycle or not. I think everyone’s trying to recognize that and so you’ve seen that acceleration. What I think is still left to come incrementally, as we are still seeing, as leases fully mature, companies, lessees resizing their space needs. And so you can have performing loans today and a good outlook, but you really don’t know until you see the leases mature. The other thing I would say is we are seeing some interest, some early interest on long-term investors coming in and that may help. So I would say still more to come.

Gerard Cassidy: Great. Thank you.

Operator: We have room for one final question and that comes from Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Manan Gosalia: Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to come back to the NII guide, and I appreciate all the detail on loan growth and deposit betas. Can you talk about how we should think about the impact of securities repricing and the impact of swaps as we think through that 2024 NII?

Mike Maguire: Yes, no problem. On the securities repricing side, not a huge factor. As you know, our speeds, we mature, call it, $2 billion to $3 billion per quarter, and so probably not as big of an impact on — in terms of upside for ’24. But as you think about the swap book, I think, I mentioned in the fourth quarter, we had a little bit of a tailwind to the tune of, call it, $20 million to $25 million relative to Q3. Our outlook for ’24, really interesting enough, the first half, it’s a tailwind with some of the payers in our portfolio. But we do have some received fixed swaps that will become effective throughout the course of the year, which will later in the, call it, first-half begin to mute the benefit and then by the second half, create a headwind. But for the full year impact, it’s actually negligible at least based on the current curve. But that’s all factored into our NII outlook.

Manan Gosalia: Got it. And just as we think through the sensitivity to the different rate environment, I think you mentioned some forward starting swaps. Is there any more color, any quantification there? Or anything else we need to think through in terms of the impact on NII from any swings in the forward rate assumptions?

Mike Maguire: Look, I mean, like we disclosed this. I mean if you look at our swap portfolio, we’ve got about $30 billion of receivers on today. About $10 billion of those will be effective sort of day one this year, and by the end of the year, most will be effective. But again, that’s incorporated into our outlook.

Manan Gosalia: Got it. Thank you.

Operator: And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the question-and-answer session. I’d like to turn the conference back over to Brad Milsaps for closing remarks.

Brad Milsaps: Okay. That completes our earnings call. If you have any additional questions, please feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team. Thank you for your interest in Truist, and we hope you have a great day. Rocco, you may now disconnect the call.

Operator: Thank you, sir. This concludes the conference call. You may now disconnect your lines. Have a wonderful day.

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